These posts are driving me nuts.

[covelj70]

Mike,

that\'s what makes this game so awesome.  We are seeing the puzzle differently and both get a chance to see how well we put it together next Sat.  Awesome game and best time of the year for it.

Thanks for the thoughts

[jimbo66]

TGJB

Good luck with your legal filing.

Rachel Alexandra\'s top was on dirt.  I Want Revenge\'s \"top\" was on synthetic.  As you have admitted, the synthetic figures are compacted on synthetics.  Comparing those \"tops\" is a slippery slope.  Your call on how you proceed down that slope. I am not.

[congaree1]

This horse already beat, IWR twice, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy and Mr.Hot Stuff. Four wins in a row and by Empire Maker, we will see.

[Dana666]

Well, to be fair, I wouldn\'t disagree in any way with your second paragraph, but what are you going to do - agree with me about Pro-Ride and thus pretty much invalidate your product and source of income? Not too many people would do that, but if you\'re honestly telling me that the figures (T-G\'s or Rags for that matter) given out on Pro-Ride are any bit as accurate or reliable as figures on dirt based on variants, patterns, formulas, etc. that have been established for decades -- well, I can\'t imagine you could honestly believe that. That surface changes so often it is sick and no data is reliable or repeatable -- at least not so soon after it has been installed at only one track in the entire country.

As far as my having no knowledge of figures that\'s your opinion and you\'re certainly welcome to it, but I\'ve been using T-g\'s and Rags for about 20 years (and for years before that I made my own figures). I\'d be the first to say I did much better when California tracks were dirt - the artifical surfaces have been challenging from my point of view to say the least, and you are correct and perceptive that figures are in no way my number one gauge as to how I view a horse - in Cali or anywhere else for that matter, but more likely one piece (an often useful one at that) in a puzzle that I try to solve in each race. My eyes and my knowledge of the way horses move and the body language they display while moving is what I primarily trust, and I\'ve been around horses since I was a little kid, not inside a room making numbers under fluorescent lights but on a farm working with real live animals -- animals that have moods and thoughts and fears and good days and bad days -- and animals that don\'t read sheets. I\'ve more often praised your groundbreaking work rather than criticized it, but if I had to trust my eyes or my opinion over a number somebody makes, I\'ll take my opinion. All I\'d ever need do to make my point is read the Throrograph analysis for California tracks, for example, to say again and again whoever does that analysis has very little if any useful knowledge of the breed or how to predict what they\'re going to do - esp. on a surface like Pro-Ride. It\'s laughable some of the horses they (not saying you do it, but it\'s based only on your numbers, right?) come up with.

[ronwar]

Not only that, the dam is out of Lord at War(arg),  Who did nice work at a distance (1985 santa anita handicap winner) and was also the dam sire to Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem.  I do not see any reason why the horse wouldn\'t run on dirt.  

I\'m not touching the fast enough issue.

[Ace]

Eoin Harty has proven with Well Armed that he is Mr. Move Up going synthetic to dirt.  I believe that Mr. Hot Stuff will run a new top in the Derby.  Will it be enough to win?  We shall see.   My money says this horse hits the trifecta, despite the low speed figures for his ProRide races for which Beyer and the sheet producers all struggle.

[Flighted Iron]

\"Thinking a horse may move up on a certain surface is different than upgrading a past race\".

 Would you consider a horse that\'s been performing solely on synth more suited
to a turf course or a sea of slop?Of course without having knowledge of its
foot or actual feedback from its connections disclosing its lack of propensity
for the slop.


 respectfully,
   mjs

[Flighted Iron]

King T. Leatherbury, Third Winningest Trainer of All Time:


\"Everyone who succeeds in this game has to be a good handicapper, whether it\'s as a trainer, owner, jockey, agent or horseplayer. THORO-GRAPH is the most important data source I have when it comes to buying a horse or managing it, or for my own betting.\"
Shug McGaughey, Trainer of Champions Easy Goer and Personal Ensign:


\"THORO-GRAPH lets me know the ability and chart the progress of every horse in my barn, as well as keep track of the competition.\"
John Forbes, Winner of Three Consecutive Meadowlands Training Titles:


\"I can\'t imagine anybody who is going to come to the races and bet, trying to do so without THORO-GRAPH figures in conjunction with the Racing Form - I just can\'t imagine that you could have any success without them.\"
Leading Trainer Bobby Frankel:


\"THORO-GRAPH measures exactly how well horses have performed in the past by factoring in variables not included in other speed figures. Then they put every horse\'s figures on its own graph, which lets me know at a glance where each one is in its own form cycle.\"
Daily Racing Form, February 13, 1989:


\"He (Mike Sedlacek) was one of the very first horsemen here to use Jerry Brown\'s THORO-GRAPH service, the speed figure sheets that are now almost de rigeur with \'serious\' horseplayers and horsemen.\"
the Las Vegas Review Journal:


\"Unlike any other method of rating horses, THORO-GRAPH is the only one I\'ve ever known to be endorsed by so many trainers, which, by itself, makes it unique.\"




 Is it fair to say these people are very familiar with horses moods and the
way they travel and such?More than fair to say at least one of them grew up
round horse flesh.

da comers n da goers
the games brought down the line
the facts the figures will he get there in time
agonizing the brain drenched in sweat
they been there n they done that
many decades success n bet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[P-Dub]

Before you automatically toss POTN, their have been instances of California horses outperforming their numbers when shipping east. This has happened before synthetics were implemented, and has been discussed before.  I\'m not saying POTN will win, relax Monmouth Guy, but to dismiss POTN because of slower synthetic figures is questionable.

Everyone wants to point to Colonel John as the poster horse for California horses being outgunned in the Derby. They perform better than a lot of you think.

[Dana666]

Is it fair to say any of them got paid for their endorsements?

[Dana666]

He certainly is a beautiful animal, and he galloped out super in the SA Derby a race he had no shot in whatsoever regarding the bias and pace of the race that day. Your prediction wouldn\'t surprise me at all.

[Dana666]

PS - your post still doesn\'t speak to my original point of the choas invoked by the Pro-Ride at SA (and remember the cement cushion before that?) and how it is very diificult to get a real gauge of what those numbers mean. You guys don\'t get it and you don\'t know as many people as I do who went broke playing Santa Anita over he last two years. I\'ll stop posting for a while now, I promise.

[covelj70]

would that be the same Harty that trained Mr. Hot Stuff\'s brother Col John who ran the the exact figure on the Dirt in last year\'s Derby that he did on the synthetics?

[pizzalove]

Dana666,

You really make some good arguments and I agree that in no way can you say IWR actually regressed last race.  That is for people that look at an end number and didnt see the race.  But as for POTN here are some things to consider.

-  Superstar trainer Bill Mott felt this horse was better suited for turf.
-  Current trainer Bob B. would of barely sniffed the derby this decade if not for a horse that was purchased weeks before the derby.  He hasnt had ne thing serious since they started different testing.
-  All of these questions about will he handle dirt.  Why didnt his connections race him on dirt?  Mullins tested his horse.  I cant think of anything dumber than a trainer having a tough horse and not doing everything they can to prepare it for Louisville.  This implies to me that there is some doubt there.  
- Highest beyer is a 96
- While IWR jumped way up on dirt he was at a point in his training where big moves arent that unusual.  He also didnt run in a major stakes in october and was not as far along.
- Does anyone really beleive that after the RBLewis race that IWR would not of crushed POTN on any surface?
- Has pulled in the last two races.  A repeat of this in the Derby would guarantee a bottom 10 finish.

-Talk about poor competition Potn last two races were awful.  This can be confirmed if CC runs poor in the derby and I think he will.
- In the Santa Anita derby the 4 furlong fraction was 48.70.  Yuck.

This is a tough race and I am going long with IWR in my mix.  Good luck.

[HP]

Pizza this is a good post about two key horses in the race - IWR and POTN.  

What you\'ve made me think of is...if IWR\'s last race figure is a product of the bad start, etc. and not a real regression...that is actually more of a negative for the Derby because that makes TWO real blowout races in a row, which would increase his chance of reacting/bouncing.  That said he\'s still tough to toss completely, and \"going long with IWR in the mix\" sounds like a plan.  

Your points on Baffert are excellent, unless Baffert believes that going on the Pro-Ride will really leg the horse up for the dirt.  POTN has to improve at least three lengths to get in the picture here and will be tough to take against horses with longer odds that have already run faster.  Still not an easy toss, but I\'m leaning that way...  It would be funny if ChocoCandy was the big Pro-Ride/dirt move up at a longer price, especially given all the yakking about POTN, CC actually has a slightly faster top!

HP