Glad to see the discussion heating up and covering a lot of interesting angles such as 2YO \'foundation,\' patterns, surface switches, pace scenario, etc.
I know I am using a different product but from what I have seen from the posts here there do not appear to be too many gargantuan differences in the numbers for the top contenders.
This is what I am looking at right now in terms of approaching the race:
The three \'fast\' horses: IWR, QR, and Dunkirk
These three are notably faster in their 3 y.o. tops and in fact both their past two races, than virtually every other potential entrant. The question is the likelihood of each horse to either fire one of those tops or potentially move forward. If any of these three do that then you your winner comes from this group, barring a freak (e.g., POTN pulling an IWR).
In terms of the patterns I tend to agree with TGJB and others that IWR\'s pattern is cause for concern. Forget whether his numbers were artificially depressed by synthetics, the huge top he ran in the Gotham is a knockout number for a young 3 y.o. and I would be very surprised if he is able to run anywhere near it on Derby Day. The comments on his works are interesting in that those that want to bet against him focus on the negative aspects whereas his fans will look at the positives. Mullins is one of those trainers who gets his horses to pop lots of big numbers but has not shown the ability to point a horse to a race and get him to fire the big number on that day. Given that he is almost sure to be the favorite i think he is worth taking a stand against.
Quality Road has done nothing wrong and on Rag paired his top number in the FD. I am not a huge fan of the pattern and the pair-up is a slight negative (as is the quarter crack) but I think he is less suspect than IWR. Tough call. Wide range of outcomes with this one.
Dunkirk is a also mystery. The huge jump in his second start should have caused a reaction but it didn\'t. He moved forward a bit. Pletcher is a bit like Mullins in that he rarely has shown that he can get his horses to fire on the big day, but DK\'s pattern is a little like BB\'s (though BB was stronger with a big route # in the fall as a 2 y.o.). Of the three I think he is most likely to run a good number but I would not be shocked if any or all of these three run poorly.
POTN is a very interesting horse to me. He has a nice 2 y.o. foundation and a pattern that screams big new top sometime in the next 6-8 weeks. But he\'ll need to run a new top to win, assuming that one or more of the 3 fast horses runs to their level. He is an unknown on dirt but given his breeding and his apparently nice work yesterday I don\'t think there is a strong reason to think that he would go backward on the dirt. I was not crazy with the way he has pulled during the middle stages of his last couple of races, though he had not done that previously so I am a little confused as to whether or not this is a concern for Derby Day.
I have no idea what to do with Friesan Fire. Pattern is fine. Last race number competitive though a significant top. Seven weeks and lack of 9f race are negatives but Jones has gotten horses to run will in TC races before. Complete mystery with a slightly negative slant.
Most of the rest of the horses are just a relatively slow bunch that figure to run within a two point range that could hit the super but unlikely to win. West Side Bernie is a little faster but breeding is suspect. Same for Musket Man. The Lukas horse FP is a little intriguing, as is Zito\'s JAC.
The two Dubai horses look like easy tosses. Just too slow, though i think they will both be heavily involved in the early pace.
Speaking of pace, where is it? Trip will be so important here and getting one\'s horse into position by the 5/16 is going to be critical. Tough to know how that\'s going to shake out ahead of time but I do agree that horses like QR and FF deserve some increase in their chances to win because they will be in position and won\'t likely have to fight thru traffic.
As far as betting the race, this is definitely a race that could see a huge price winning if the 3 fig horses don\'t fire and POTN doesn\'t jump up -- a la the Giacomo year.
I don\'t think it is a great \'Win\' betting race (because I don\'t think any of the big price horses look particularly explosive), so I will be concentrating on the Super. The key for me is finding a key horse or two and then building a ticket around him/them. It is still not clear who is actually entering so the peripheral horses that I will throw in are not clear but I think I will likely toss IWR, at least from the first two spots. The key to the Derby Super is not to get too clever because just a couple long-ish shots makes for a huge payout, even if favorites are in the top two.
