Derby Approach

[TGJB]

David-- you\'re pushing your luck here, as usual. You want to say who you like on Ragozin and discuss the race and the horses in general terms you can, but have the specific numbers discussions on the little league site. I don\'t want the conversation here to get any more complicated than it has to. (Aside from which, how long do you think even a post like your first discussing the race on TG would last on their board)?

When you first posted yesterday I was about to leave, and didn\'t have time for a long answer. You are dead wrong-- as Miff has said all year, and as I know now that I have seen Ragozin\'s data, there are some extremely large differences. In some cases it clearly makes a difference in how one views the individual horses, in some it does not.

[David G Patent]

Jerry,

The only time I mentioned a specific number was in response to a question from one of your posters, so apologies.


As for your question, I am not sure why you would even ask that of me.

If there are big differences that affect how one perceives a horses likely chance to win, then great.  You should be able to exploit that.  I didn\'t read anything in the posts here that indicated that, at least for the top contenders, but if so. . . .

[David G Patent]

PC is marginal to me.  Likely to bounce and needs to run or beat top to be competitive.

WSB looks fine and potentially explosive but I\'m not crazy about the breeding and that \'x\' he ran at TP is puzzling.  Since I have him at around 20:1 I don\'t think he\'ll be any value.

BTW on MM the dosage may be fine but virtually every horse entered nowadays qualifies yet look at how many can\'t get the distance.  Since he won the IL Derby I don\'t think he\'ll be a big enough price.

All are usable in the super, however!

[TGJB]

Knock it off, David, stop being cute. Nobody asked you for a number, they asked for an analysis of a horse. I do ROTW almost every week and since it will often also be published in Thoroughbred Daily News and be read by non-sheet reading civilians, I somehow manage to discuss every horse and yet almost never mention a specific figure. So I\'m pretty sure it can be done.

In this case it would have been really tough, though. But I think I know how you could have done it-- \"He would need a new top, and since he\'s already developed a lot already, I think that\'s very unlikely\". That do it?

[David G Patent]

Very helpful. Thanks.

[Silver Charm]

I am sticking by these numbers. IWR apparently looked good in flesh and on the track today. He overcame a lot of adversity in his last and sometimes the Derby is about overcoming adversity. In the Gotham he headed a frontrunner in a pretty pace battle.

I am a Dunkirk fan but gambling is a risk reward proposition. The Derby with its 20 horse field is a high Beta race. Horses odds need to correlate with what they have accomplished not what they one day might.