Desert Party

[twoshoes]

I know this can be interpreted as \'manufacturing\' a pattern read, but I thought I\'d throw it out there anyway and see what some of you had to say. The biggest knock on DP is he was slow as a 2yo and the development since to the top in the UAE Derby. That number is just short of competitive here, especially if IWR and QR don\'t throw their best shot, but most feel he probably doesn\'t have another forward move. DP was put away because of a minor injury sustained in the Hopeful. Presumably he shipped to Dubai shortly thereafter. Here\'s the question. They didn\'t begin racing over there until mid-January and he raced the second date available. What if he had been ready to run in late December, they were racing in Dubai, and he ran that first January number as a 2yo. He fires first time at 3 with a slight new top, and then improves to the UAE Derby number. Now the development from 2 isn\'t quite as much and it\'s his 3rd start as a 3yo with good spacing. What does that pattern look like, particularly in light of the way he has trained at CD? I know that\'s a big \'what if\' but I was curious as to what some of you might think of that sheet?

Thanks in advance.

[toppled]

He still had a big jump up # last out & even if he pairs that #, there are 7 horses with faster tops, many who have a better foundation.  Personally, I prefer his stablemate Regal Ransom over him because even though his # was slower in his winning effort against DP, he did not skyrocket to a new top due to his fine 2yo debut #.

[twoshoes]

Thanks for the thoughts Topp. I also think there is something to like on RR especially since QR won\'t be breathing down his neck now. This guy could get a soft trip up front and run right through that number he just came back to. I do think there is a decent chance Desert party has another forward move in him right now. With QR out, that really leaves only IWR with a much faster top than DP, the rest are within reach and off my reads none are as likely to run well with the exception of maybe Dunkirk and FF.

[flushedstraight]

twoshoes, every opinion posted here is a big \"what if\"

Considering they\'ve been pointing DP to the derby all along I see nothing wrong with his sheet and take a positive view of the pattern. The UAE derby was an encouraging prep against what appeared to be a speed bias that day. He may be peaking now and another move forward on Sat would be absolutely no surprise.

He also appears to be under the radar now with others in the spotlight and with his loss in the prep, so the value should still be there. Given that I\'m tossing the synths and the ones that have already ran the big figs, even a small move forward makes him competitive. He\'s in my top 3, and one of the keys if over 15-1. I would be much more critical of the question marks if he was coming in as one of the favorites.

I believe \"manufacturing\" a pattern read is common when redboarding; the challenge is doing it before a race and having the guts to act on it when the price is right.

[jimbo66]

Two Shoes,

I believe the scratch of Quality Road actually significantly diminishes the longshot chance of Regal Ransom.  The Pletcher \"rabbit\", Join in the Dance, is now in the race.  Barring him being shut off at the break, he makes the lead and pushes a fast pace for Dunkirk.  I say throw RR out of the superfecta now, despite the nice-looking TG pattern.

[twoshoes]

Flushed - thanks for the response. I don\'t have a long list of contenders and this is one I think may provide some value.

 Jimbo - I\'m not sure RR needs the lead, he wasn\'t rank at all hounded by the horse outside him in the UAE Derby, he rated pretty kindly and had a nice little kick when asked in the stretch. I do think he had a lot his way that day with the nature of the course which is my biggest negative on him. I will be interested to see where they draw, it might make a difference as to how I use him. Agree the Pletcher horse may be sent for Dunkirk but I don\'t view him as a threat on his own. I think Garcia could afford to be patient with a target. Depends on how keyed up RR gets chasing. For what it\'s worth, I\'m more bullish on Desert Party. We do some business with this outfit in Saratoga and while they are not given to hyperbole, they do think these colts are doing very well. Whether they are good enough...

[tim1500]

Haskin writes Desert Party looks like a million bucks on the track. He should since they paid 2.1 million for him. You are right JB about the workout comments. These are the best horses in the world, they all better look good.