It\'s a shame to lose him for the Derby, but they did the right thing. If a horse
cannot even breeze on Monday how can he race on Saturday, in the Derby no less? Even if he is miraculously healed by Sat., he\'s lost too much training time. Let
him heal and then gradually bring him back.
When I first heard the news I posted the following on my Racing Forum:
“This will have a massive impact on the race. Not only was he a favorite,
he was also the prime quality speed in the race and his absence will have a major
impact on how the race will be run. Now the chances of all the other contenders
will have to be re-evaluated - the frontrunners\' chances will improve and the
closers may have to be downgraded.”
Then I realized that this gets Join in the Dance, who is an even more of a pure early speed type, in the race. So – the complexion of the race changes back again, and we have an even faster early pace scenario likely.
Late scratches not only affect those that bet on the horse but can change the whole race scenario for all others. That’s why I put off all predictions until at least the final entries are in and the post-positions are drawn and would only consider future bets as a lark. Too many unpredictable variables just make them too much of a poor gamble for me. Like Robert Redford, the gambler in “Havana” said, “I like to keep the gambling to a minimum”. Of course, others may feel differently as to what is acceptable risk.
Bob
