Friesan Fire Blazes

[jimbo66]

Yep, and if the race were on Pro-Ride, that stat would actually matter......

Raven\'s Pass beat Curlin on Pro-Ride and Red Rocks beat him on turf.  

Would you give either of those horses a shot against Curlin on dirt?  Nope.

[flushedstraight]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am confused by the posters who see this as a
> confusing Derby.  To me it is more clearcut than
> most.
>
> There are 4 possible winners: IWR, Dun, WSB and
> FF.  Two of them should make an exacta.  Three of
> them might make the tri.


If I was that confident that WSB (40-1?) was one of only four that had a chance to win, and of the other three;

- one has regressing pattern, has already run a knockout fig, and is being ridden by a mistake prone teenager with no derby experience

- another one has never raced at 2, never won a stakes race, and was deserted by his jock for a horse that has never raced on the dirt

- and the third has a fast track top slower than half the field and is now looking like the annual wise guy underlay,

I\'d have enough on WSB that if he won it would cover a week in Hawaii for two  first class or maybe even a few box seats to a Yankee game

[alm]

As pointed out, PON beat IWR on synth...unless he improves extremely on dirt, he\'s nowhere near IWR, given the slowness of his synth figures.  A bet on him is a guess that he will handle dirt better. It\'s only a guess.

As for DUN\'s background and prep, it is far different from anything I can remember TP doing with a contender before and his 5 wide move on the turn at Gulfstream, which is a killer place to make a move on that track, showed an amazing turn of foot.  May be the best of all the contenders.

Jones\' handling of FF....the long layoff, the extreme mile work and now the killer breeze...is all oriented to this animal...he\'s working outside the typical routine another trainer would use...what\'s the last horse you\'ve seen prepped with a mile work this close to the Derby?

[trackjohn]

As far as the dime supers on Derby/Oaks Day(s) go, apparently CD has made the decision based on the fact that they do not want \'excessive lines at the on-site wagering windows\'.

Clearly this could have been handled a bit more creatively by allowing them on the off-site venues (website wagering, simulcasting outlets, etc.).

Trackjohn

[TreadHead]

The only thing you are leaving out is that POTN is still eliglble for a few points of improvement off his 2 year old top (which puts him in the minority).  Add to that he was a late foal, and a large move up could be more about normal 3 year old development than surface change, and it gives two possible explainations for a large move up, should one happen.

[MonmouthGuy]

Couldn\'t you say the same thing about Regal Ransom, and we know he can run on dirt.

[Halo Fire]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As pointed out, PON beat IWR on synth...unless he
> improves extremely on dirt, he\'s nowhere near IWR,
> given the slowness of his synth figures.  A bet on
> him is a guess that he will handle dirt better.
> It\'s only a guess.
>
> As for DUN\'s background and prep, it is far
> different from anything I can remember TP doing
> with a contender before and his 5 wide move on the
> turn at Gulfstream, which is a killer place to
> make a move on that track, showed an amazing turn
> of foot.  May be the best of all the contenders.
>
> Jones\' handling of FF....the long layoff, the
> extreme mile work and now the killer breeze...is
> all oriented to this animal...he\'s working outside
> the typical routine another trainer would
> use...what\'s the last horse you\'ve seen prepped
> with a mile work this close to the Derby?

Chocolate Candy worked a mile on the same day.

[TreadHead]

Indeed you could, and I plan on using both of these personally.  Large move ups are highly unlikely from any other than these 2, statistically speaking.  Doesn\'t mean it will happen of course, but these two have tons of development room, where WSB and Choc Candy have some, but a little less IMO.  Dunkirk and Summer Bird have no 2 year old form, but everyone else in the field, again statistically speaking, it would be hard to argue that there is further development possible.

[alm]

Thanks for the insight.  I didn\'t mention before, but his running style also seems problematical to me...he seemed almost rank, maybe just difficult to control, in the SA Derby.  If so, he\'ll likely cook himself on the Churchill dirt.

Grass horses run that way and fade on dirt.  Aren\'t synth horses more like grass horses?  We will see.

In any case, he seems too slow to bet...as do the others coming from CAL...such as CC.

There was a time when the outsized purses were reason enough to prep the fastest horses in SOCAL for the Triple Crown and they won more than their share of the races when they came back east.  But the introduction of synth out there may have influenced important owners to stay back east and in the midwest with the good ones.  The tide has surely shifted these past few years.

[alm]

Yeah, Hollendorfer is another terrific trainer.  Unfortunately he has a slower horse in this instance.

[P-Dub]

Great thinking.

I mean, we wouldn\'t want players with smaller bankrools to have any fun with a supefecta bet. Another example of racing looking after their fans.