Revised Odds Line

[jimbo66]

Quality Road out changes the complexion of the betting a bit.  

I Want Revenge   7 to 2
Pioneer of the Nile   5 to 1
Dunkirk   7 to 1
Friesan Fire   7 to 1
Chocolate Candy   15 to 1
Desert Party   15 to 1
Hold Me Back   20 to 1
General Quarters   25 to 1
Papa Clem   25 to 1
Musket Man   25 to 1
Square Eddie   25 to 1
Regal Ransom   30 to 1
Advice   40 to 1
West Side Bernie   40 to 1
Win Willy   40 to 1
Summer Bird   40 to 1
Mr. Hot Stuff   40 to 1
Flying Private   40 to 1
Join in the Dance   40 to 1
Mine that Bird   40 to 1

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Boy do I hope you are right on a lot of those. And you and I may be making a side bet some time after the seminar has been out a day or two.

[Michael D.]

IWR 5-2 or 3-1
Dunk 5 to 6-1
Pioneer 5 to 6-1
FF 7-1
CC 14-1
Papa 17-1
GQ 20-1
DP 20-1

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I know I did a 180 on this from 2 weeks ago, but POTN goes off shorter than Dunkirk.  I would take that bet in a second.  Too much publicity for POTN and too little for Dunkirk, especially with Gomez taking POTN.  

That doesn\'t mean I still don\'t think Dunkirk isn\'t the \"dirt\" horse most likely to run a new top, which I believe he is and I think he is easily the 2nd most likely winner (behind IWR, who is 3 points faster than the field).

[TGJB]

I think the foreign bookmakers ae going to hit DP a little bit, and maybe RR too. But I think you guys are pretty close.

[JimP]

Are these the odds you expect the public to set in the pools OR do these represent your opinion on the actual probability of winning for each of the horses?

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I know I did a 180 on this from 2 weeks ago, but
> POTN goes off shorter than Dunkirk.  I would take
> that bet in a second.  Too much publicity for POTN
> and too little for Dunkirk, especially with Gomez
> taking POTN.  
>
> That doesn\'t mean I still don\'t think Dunkirk
> isn\'t the \"dirt\" horse most likely to run a new
> top, which I believe he is and I think he is
> easily the 2nd most likely winner (behind IWR, who
> is 3 points faster than the field).


The UK books are taking more action on Dunk than Pioneer, but I guess that could be the Tabor connection and/or his money. Check this out though - the experts over at the TT love POTN.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/triple-crown/poll-results.aspx?raceno=59

[jimbo66]

Jim,

They are the odds I expect the public to set.  Factored in is the takeout at Churchill, so the \"math\" works.

[TreadHead]

Odds from one of the Caribbean joints, while the individual horse odds are pretty bad, some of those props are a bit interesting.


Will any Horse win the 2009 Triple Crown?

All wagers have action. (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes&Belmont Stakes). Singles Only.
Yes+600
No-1100

2009 Kentucky Derby - Official Winning Time

All wagers have action.
Over 2:01.60 -190
Under 2:01.60 +155

2009 Kentucky Derby - Winning Saddlecloth Number

All wagers have action.
Odd -120
Even -120

2009 Kentucky Derby - Official Win Mutual Payoff

All wagers have action.
Over $18.50 -125
Under $18.50 -115

Odds to Win 2009 Kentucky Derby

All wagers have action.
ADVICE 30/1
CHARITABLE MAN 100/1
CHOCOLATE CANDY 14/1
DESERT PARTY 16/1
DUNKIRK 9/2
FLYING PRIVATE 60/1
FRIESAN FIRE 13/2
GENERAL QUARTERS 20/1
HOLD ME BACK 25/1
I WANT REVENGE 5/2
MINE THAT BIRD 100/1
MR. HOT STUFF 42/1
MUSKET MAN 25/1
PAPA CLEM 15/1
PIONEEROF THE NILE 6/1
REGAL RANSOM 20/1
SQUARE EDDIE 30/1
SUMMER BIRD 40/1
WEST SIDE BERNIE 40/1
WIN WILLY 30/1