Disparity between the top figure horse and the field

[jimbo66]

The scratch of Quality Road and his negative 3, left I Want Revenge\'s top of negative 3.5 three points faster than any other horse in the field.  That got me thinking/wondering how often during previous derbies did one horse have such a significant figure edge over the rest of the field (at their tops) and how did it play out in the Derby.  

The archives here have all the sheets of the last twelve derbies.  In 10 of the 12 derbies, the difference between the fastest horse in the race and the next fastest horse was less than 2 points.  Actually in 5 years there were \"co-fastest\" horses, in 4 years it was 1 point and in one year is was 2 points.  

The only two years that a horse had a greater than 2 point figure edge going into the derby were 2004 and 2008.  Both Smarty Jones and Big Brown were 3 points faster than their next fastest competitor.  And both were easy winners in the Derby.

In 2009, I Want Revenge is 3 points faster than Dunkirk, who is the next fastest horse.

Hmmm.....

[BB]

In 2005 you had four horses who had run negative numbers (not counting Sun King, who ran a zero first out as a 3yo and then ran three races no faster than 2 3/4). The slowest of these three - Greeley\'s Galaxy and Afleet Alex - were three points faster than the rest of the field. By this method, these four were your super. But only Afleet Alex crashed the super. The two fastest horses? Bellamy Road finished 7th. Bandini 19th.

Jim, BB ran a top and Smarty ran to within two points of his top. If IWR runs a top he\'s gone and if he runs two off he\'s got a big shot. But there\'s a nice percentage he doesn\'t do either of those. That\'s where I\'m aiming. Good luck!

[Silver Charm]

Those others had aleast been close to repeating theirs or it came in their race before the Derby.

This is a one race Top for IWR in a spot where some believe he was enhanced in the holding barn

IWR will be 7/2 for those convinced he lays over this field by three lengths

[flushedstraight]

for the record, Sinister Minister was 3pts faster than anyone else prior to the 06 derby.

at least someone took a stand on him
www.thorograph.com

[EJXD2]

Wow... going against Sinister Minister was an amazing display of handicapping prowess. I mean, who would possibly have thought to toss a gate-to-wire winner on Keeneland\'s old main track going an extra furlong and unlikely to get an easy pace?

Man, why didn\'t I think of that rather than emptying the retirement account and betting it on Sinister Minister to win the Derby.

I just cannot emphasize enough the genius it took to go against Sinister Minister. Well done!

[jimbo66]

Flush,

Missed that.  I didn\'t see the negative 4 when I reviewed the sheets, I had negative 1 as the top figure in the race.

However, your post from Chuckles was clearly altered and could not be correct.  I am pretty sure that Chuckles had the superfecta cold that year.  Actually he had the complete order of finish correct, except for reversing the 16th and 17th place finishers.  Because of that mistake, it was actually one of Ctc\'s weaker derbies, as he usually nails the field in order from 1st to last.

[Uncle Buck]

You can tell the ol\' pre-Derby angst has officially set in. Lots of poison darts flying around lately, some of which I\'ve thrown (well - not that poisonous).

IWR appears to be eating up, feeling good and looking and working healthy. Won\'t know much about his heart going 10 F until the 3/8th\'s pole, which is always the $10,000 conundrum in this race.

[BB]

Nah, he took his lumps with his usual class and aplomb. He put out a contract on High Limit, who had the temerity to run early with the Minister.