???????????

[alm]

Oh, and by the way HP, I\'ve been betting the Derby since 1961 and have had the winner, usually on a single selection, twenty times in that period, including some god-awful longshots.  This is going to be a tough year, not because of post positions, but rather because there are 4 legitimate contenders.

[HP]

ALM - You get another prize.  This has got to be the ALL-TIME redboard post.  Usually people are content to redboard ONE race.  You are up to TWENTY.  Congratulations on all those past winners.  No one can buck that kind of record.  Are you sure it\'s only TWENTY?  Maybe you missed one?  Do you have a list on your refrigerator?  How do you keep track of all those winners?  Don\'t sell yourself short.  If it\'s really TWENTY ONE or TWENTY TWO winners don\'t be ashamed to update us.  And don\'t be afraid to put up THIS YEAR\'s winner too!  We\'re all waiting for your pick now.  

Jerry - stop with your theorizing.  This is much ado about nothing.  Have ALM give the seminar.  Have YOU picked TWENTY Derby winners?  I think not!

[congaree1]

This field does truly stink.. I have to agree that only 4 can win it.

[P-Dub]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve been betting the Derby
> since 1961 and have had the winner, usually on a
> single selection, twenty times in that period,
> including some god-awful longshots.  

Who needs Chuckles??

[alm]

You\'re funny, but I\'ve got the money.

[miff]

Can\'t imagine anyone that does not want to save ground, however in races with a long straight run to the turn(like the derby)the outside is tactically better from the standpoint of avoiding the surge of horses angling towards the inside which can \"bury\"inside runners.

Two turn races with a short run to the turn, the inside is golden, the outside poison. Races with long straight runs (like all one turn races run at 7f or more)the inside is not preferred and presents a race shape/tactical disadvantage for reasons above

Think that some are confusing saving ground, always preferable, with the different issues regarding a short or long run to the turn.

Mike

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Think that some are confusing saving ground,
> always preferable, with the different issues
> regarding a short or long run to the turn.
>
> Mike

Thanks, Mike -- I couldn\'t figure out how to say this concisely.
 
I calculated this last year, when Big Brown got the 20-hole; the difference in distance he needed to travel to get to the rail by the start of the first turn vs. if he had the 1-hole -- assuming he could do so, and in a straight line -- was a whopping 4 feet or some such.
 
That\'s not what happened, of course, but it didn\'t matter: the ground he lost was more than amply offset by the fact that he got a clean trip.

[HP]

This is a very good point from Miff and highlights that what I don\'t like about people generalizing and going overboard about how they characterize \"sheet players\" opinions.  What Miff says here is on the money, and I\'ve disagreed with the guy on other things, but like most \"sheet players,\" he is not ignorant of pace, post, etc. and the subtleties of a short run to the first turn vs. a longer one.  It\'s not all number and we know that.  HP

[smalltimer]

I\'ve had the Derby winner the first Sunday in May for 22 straight years now.  I keep the list on my refrigerator.

[RICH]

so it makes sense that MM and WSB can save some ground, and with their last 2 figs which are very competitive be right there. I am keying them 2nd and 3rd in tris, some wins too. They are both some of the fastest in the race. This is the race to make the $

[jmetro]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can\'t imagine anyone that does not want to save
> ground, however in races with a long straight run
> to the turn(like the derby)the outside is
> tactically better from the standpoint of avoiding
> the surge of horses angling towards the inside
> which can \"bury\"inside runners.
>
> Two turn races with a short run to the turn, the
> inside is golden, the outside poison. Races with
> long straight runs (like all one turn races run at
> 7f or more)the inside is not preferred and
> presents a race shape/tactical disadvantage for
> reasons above
>
> Think that some are confusing saving ground,
> always preferable, with the different issues
> regarding a short or long run to the turn.
>
> Mike

Very well said.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jerry,

I thought you invented \"the Seminar\", God invented you....


NCT

[richiebee]

NCT:

I missed the annual \"I can\'t download the damn thing\" post this year.


Good luck Saturday.

[Rick B.]

Downloading and using this seminar was SO easy, even I could do it without consulting one of my tech support guys (i.e., my sons).

Seriously: slick stuff this year, well done.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Well actually I did not download the seminar this year, sans the complaint. I am just going to buy the sheets and imagine Jerry\'s voice speaking to me while I do my \"Cipherin\". You see \"Cipherin\" is one of those southern words I picked up over the years. It can be attributed to that Great NC Liberal Andy Griffith.

Those deep dulcet tones of Mr Brown bellowing out of my computer, while listening to Alan on Sirius all at the same time, is more than any one person should dare try to handle at once, especially if they contradict each other.....


I still have a few days to put something together.

NC Tony