So is it just me or is this the first time in a long time that the Preakness could turn out to be a better betting race with more accomplished horses than the Kentucky Derby? I can’t believe how bad much of this field is, and how tough it is to separate the top few... think I’m going to wait for greener pastures.
Still… I don’t think I could forgive myself if it turned out I was right about a few of these and I didn’t take at least a check swing into a multi-million dollar pool. But I refuse to spread out in the Tri\'s or Super this year with hopes of catching the right bomber(s) that may happen to hit. For me that’s like being offered a choice between gonorrhea or syphilis and then trying to figure out which one is better. With all respect, I live in MN and just had to do that in last November\'s Senate election here, and look what that\'s gotten me so far...
So, for what it is worth, I fully expect to lose this year. But I am going to make a very focused play anyway based upon what I perceive to be the value in this year\'s pools. I am going to post that play hear and hope a few of you can either talk me into saving my money or talk me into betting more.
For starters, my key horses are going to be FF and PON. I am going to toss IWR and DUN and use them as savers only. I was originally going to toss PON as well because his figures are low and I just can’t forgive them even though this race is on dirt and he has more or less been running on lint. But my info says he has trained better than anyone else over the Churchill strip. He’s had two really good works over that track with strong, double gallop outs in quick times. He is experienced, a multiple grade 1 winner, highly competitive (see the replays of Robert Lewis and CashCall), and he has been acting very aggressive in the mornings. That’s usually exactly what you want to see in your derby horse. Based on this, I think he is going to LOVE running on the dirt if the track comes up fast. Mud or slop is another story and could be anyone’s guess, as is his ability to take dirt in the face. This is just a hunch, but I think Baffert isn’t sure about this either. That’s probably why he chose post 16 even though he could have had others further inside. I think he is feeling very confident this year and looking to play it safe by giving Gomez options and hoping to get a good, outside stalking trip. What he may wind up with instead is a brutal 4w 4w that could really hurt his chances. But if anyone can work out a trip it should be Gomez. Being outside after the first turn should give Gomez to option to ease PON to the outside if it turns out he can’t take the dirt.
I know PON’s TG numbers make him look too slow. But I don’t think it is going to take a negative 4 to win this year, and PON’s races at SA have been going slow early and fast late. This tends to compress the overall numbers of any speed figure because a horse can’t close his final 1/4 mile in 21 + change to make up for a 3/4 time of 112. So I think PON has a forward move left in him and could pop off a negative 1 or so, which is what I think it is going to take to win this year.
My other key horse is going to be FF. His pattern screams big forward move to me as well, and I THINK I love how he has been training. What I mean by that is this:
I loved his 1 mile workout at Keenland. I remember when Jones put a similar 1 mile move into Hard Spun two years ago and then followed that one up with a hard 57 and change work at Churchill 6 days later. That 57 and change thing really threw me for a loop, and because of that I wound up tossing Hard Spun in 2007. That wound up costing me a fair amount of money, which is usually the only way I learn or remember anything.
So there I was this year sitting in my Cancun hotel room Monday morning, cell phone in hand, just praying I was about to get a call from my clocker saying FF went in 59 or so with a double gallop out in 24+change for his final derby work.
Nope… Snake eyes.
I got to pay .99 cents a minute to hear FF went the same 57 and change as Hard Spun (although my guy says he galloped out in 15.12, which is a lot different than what the official clocking said). Why oh why is this game never easy…
Anyway, the point is I had to go down to the pool and do a few shots of Tequila to think about this for a bit. My guy caught FF going 33.22, 45.06, 57.98, out 6F in 113.10 into a strong headwind for his final work. For reference, Hard Spun went 33.50, 45.02, 57.60, out 6F in 112.52 back in 2007. Now I’m not about to try to compare workout times over different days, let alone over different years. But I think the important thing to take from all of this is that it is more or less the same sequence of moves. And Hard Spun ran a new top in his Derby and really should have won the race in my opinion. So does that mean I should assume the same for FF?
I think it’s too early to tell if FF will turn out to be better, or even as good, as Hard Spun. But I think it’s safe to say he’s not exactly a tomato can or a walking feed bill either. And nothing, and I mean nothing, would make me hit the Jack Daniels bottle harder than tossing FF because of his last training move and then watching him beat me just like Hard Spun did two years ago. Fool me once... et al.
Anyway, I hope the rest of you aren’t in the same hopeless position as me. Because I have no choice but to assume FF is about to run the race of his life and now I have to bet it that way no matter what and would have had to have anyway even if FF went in 55 and change for his final move.
So those are my two key horses for this year. FF and PON. True, these are two obvious choices. But the value comes in by using IWR as a saver only. He may be the fastest horse in the race, but his pattern screams bounce, he will likely be the favorite, and you make money in this game by playing against these types of horses and you don\'t let yourself feel bad when they pair up and beat you. There is no value to a ticket that has PON, FF, and IWR on it unless a bomber hits the super, so that is exactly how I will play the saver. Same thing for DUN- a very talented, but slight, horse with limited experience. Curlin was much the same experience wise, but he had even better credentials and was a very robust animal that turned out to be very special in the long run. If he couldn’t overcome getting roughed up in the Derby I\'m hoping DUN won’t either. I think the draw also hurt him a lot unless he happens to get a lucky trip. He\'s going to have to come from out of it and weave his way through traffic. So he is also a saver bet in the Supers only because there is no value in using him with PON and FF.
I don’t think RR is as good as some people seem to believe. He was life and death to hold off his stable mate in the UAE derby and he had about as strong a speed favoring bias to aid him that day as is possible. So he will also be a saver bet only for me, but a little stronger one because he does offer some value.
PC has trained poorly and looks bouncy. That was legitimately a big race he ran in his last. Complete toss. If he beats me he beats me.
Same thing for GQ. He got a perfect trip outside on a dead rail day at Keenland, ran a TG figure of 1 and I think that is the best he has in him. I don’t think he is likely to get another bias aided trip and this field is going to be a lot tougher than the one is his last, so IMO he is not very likely to pair or move forward.
I just can’t see MM getting the 1 1/4. My guess is he makes a move on the backstretch into the turn and fades. Hard knocking horse though. So small saver only because he offers value.
If you bought the seminar you probably know by know which three horses that leaves that look like their fast enough to contend and fill out the Tri. The rest of these are too slow and I am not going to bother to sort them out.
So like I said, I fully expect to lose the derby this year and hope to make up for it on the Preakness. But my play this year will be a couple of very focused Trifecta Tickets:
- FF,PON / FF,PON / 3 value based contending horses.
- FF,PON / 3 horses / FF,PON
- A few moon shot supers
- And a few savers, mostly in the supers, using the ones I mentioned above.
May they all get home safely!
