Mine That Bird

[SonicDonn]

?

[congaree1]

I\'m sure the next analysis  says he will bounce!!!

[Uncle Buck]

A guy standing next to me said it best...\"I wouldn\'t have played that horse with a homeless man\'s money.\"

Super great story though. Best Derby story I\'ve ever heard of. Proud of the West Coast contingent. POTN ran pretty big. If I\'m gonna donate to the cause - I\'d rather it be to horse players that backed this impossible horse. They deserve every penny they got

[TGJB]

The real question is, will the Movie Of The Week be on TV by the Belmont?

They\'re gonna have to get Calvin to play Calvin, though.

[congaree1]

Humans fly to the moon and dominate all of earth. But not horse racing...
Nothing tougher to do in the world.. Great for the connections.. The best was when Blomez looked to his left and saw the horse pass him.. This guy is as self absorbed as Baily was.

[David G Patent]

He was the fastest horse coming in on Ragozin!

Seriously, when my friend and I were putting together our superfecta ticket, POTN was the key in all four spots.  I persuaded him to include Mine That Bird but we only used him for 3rd and 4th.  We used Musket Man and Papa Clem as well (in all spots).  When it became clear that the rail was superior I figured Calvin would get a great trip with the horse but can\'t say that we thought enough of him to put him in the Win spot.  Had the exacta the wrong way too.  LOL.

[TGJB]

David-- you\'re going to have to explain how big a spread that was-- you used a 6-1 shot in all 4 positions with how many horses?

Alan only used 6 horses total and did use the winner, but only 3rd and fourth. My seminar comments had him with a good chance to run a new top, but no way could I figure him to jump that much, and I didn\'t use him.

[TreadHead]

You guys can laugh all you want about how hoof analysis plays into races like this, but according to the data I saw, MTB was one of only 4 horses in the race with a high \"frog\" that should really enjoy an off track (the others being Mr Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy, and Desert Party).  

So given that its hard to say it can be used as a firm predictor for all horses, since the others were out of the money, and a horse with a very flat frog POTN finished 2nd, but still, if the question is \"how fast can the horse run TODAY\", this seems like data that might be nice to have, not necesarily from TG, but at least in general past performances.  Why not include weight, height, hoof and frog size?

I of course did not use him, but if ever presented this data in the future, I will be sure to pay better attention to it.

[flushedstraight]

The racing gods sent us Birdstone. It\'s in the breeding.

I\'m in Canada right now and on Canadian TV this morning they interviewed this guy connected with MTB. They asked him about the derby and he said he doesn\'t know why they\'re in the race because he\'s not as good as those other horses.

I assume someone else will start a Durkin blew it thread. Made it funnier though.

[David G Patent]

Jerry,

We keyed POTN with 9 horses for 1st and 2nd: West Side Bernie, Papa Clem, Friesan Fire, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, General Quarters, Hold Me Back, Musket Man, Summer Bird

We added Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Desert Party, and Mr. Hot Stuff for 3rd and 4th

It was almost a $4k Super, split 3 ways.  The cost to put every horse in every spot would have been $6864.  Guess we should have spent the extra $3k!

[congaree1]

I have a friend that is competitive at everything he does. He truly can\'t lose at anything. I always tell him for a month pick up a racing form and bet, with real money, then let me no how you feel in 30 days.. Sill hasn\'t done it..

[TGJB]

Very tough to use that horse on top. And that\'s the problem with that kind of bet-- high exposure, and if Dunkirk and FF are in the top 4 you lose money even if you hit it.

I made the identical tri and super play I did in War Emblem\'s year--- box seven, press six of them. Wasn\'t even close.

[David G Patent]

Only if all 3 hit the Super and no big longshot comes in.  Remember last year the 2:1 favorite won, the 4th (or 5th) choice was 2nd and the Super (which we hit) still paid $29k.  The year before when SS won as the favorite, both Hard Spun and Curlin were in the top 5 choices and it paid $14k.

I think it is worth the plunge because the public never goes deep enough to use enough longshots so the payouts are almost always big.  What\'s the lowest Derby Super ever?

[TGJB]

Your play was for a buck, or two?

[smalltimer]

At least the horse is owned by a vet, that makes it a lot more palatable.