Mine That Bird

[jmetro]

Most of his previous races he\'s always been put close to or right on the pace.  Watching his Sunland races he has a nice 1/2 mile to 3/4 mile run in him in both  and tires late, but was fairly game in both efforts.  

* Jerry mentioned a new top in his future.
* Borel riding moved him up a copule of extra points immeadiately with the rail skimming ride.
* A change of tactics in his running style, with the same 1/2 mile run that he had previously shown.

Yeah it was possible....I think.

[jimbo66]

jmetro,

Read your post again.  Then ask yourself \"derby winner comments\"?

He had a sustained quarter mile run at Sunland Park, then tired, but the fact he could make a little run at Sunland Park, before tiring, is a sign he had yesterday\'s race in him?  

Nope.  Not joining the conspiracy theory, but I just don\'t understand.  I think you had to be crazy, absolutely crazy, to take only 50-1 on this horse.  I would have offered 200-1 and booked bets on this horse.  (then I would be explaining to my son this morning, that he can\'t go to Cornell in August, we are switching to community college....).  This game is tough.  Very tough.

[TreadHead]

And if I showed you 10s or 100s of other sheets where a horse ran a 4 or 5 point top, you would still say there is no rational explaination for what happened?

Can you explain Bull Toccet\'s sheet from the 4th yesterday?

Can you explain Royale Michele\'s sheet from the 7th yesterday?

Yes I do follow your posts, and if you were making fun of yourself, then that\'s fine.  But I have read posts on other forums from people seemingly making this same drug argument who are serious, and I think it is unfortunate.  While not an everyday occurance, some horses do move up significantly their first time on off tracks and there is a wealth of data to support it.  While I agree it was very difficult to expect this large an improvement going into the race, in hind-sight I think there is a logical explaination for what happened and plenty of other horses that support the premise.

[pizzalove]

I have a theory.  I think there is something strange in the way that Borel hugs the rail.  Much much closer to the rail than your typical rail trip.  I certainly understand the geometry of it but he is this close to the rail even on the straightaways.  Is it possible that this portion of the track was as hard as a superhighway?  With a fairly slow pace after the first fraction I am stunned that a horse could come back like this.  This is not just a question of saving ground.  I think something else was at play here.  I am also wondering a little about street sense.  Did he win anything significant or run a high beyer outside of his inside wins at churchill?  Food for thought.

[miff]

Pizza,

SS had all the credentials in the world, this horse has none. Yes the rail was giant at CD yesterday, however many races down down and did not run as well as MTB.

Thread,

You will NOT show me hundreds of horses (drugs aside) AT THIS LEVEL that jump up and run past 19 faster ones, maybe a rare few.If you follow or study racing this was one of the most shocking/unexplainable results in derby history. At least we know the rat Giacomo got there because of a brutal pace and meltdown, this horse legitimately outran the field, rail or no rail,he would have won with any decent trip.


Mike

[reboundman]

So close, but yet so far. About 15 minutes before the race, I took a flyer on a $1 tri with Mine That Bird over 6 horses (PON, RR, FF, HMB, Dunkirk and Desert Party). I did this completely based on Borel - nothing else. The only race I hit all day long was a win bet on the 16-1 turf horse Borel was riding earlier. He was just on fire. I guess I should have simply bet MTB to win - would have made for a nice day.

[MonmouthGuy]

This morning, many of us are able to draw an analogy between the beatdown that Manny Pacquiao gave Ricky Hatton, and the manner in which Mine That Bird destroyed our exotic tickets yesterday. While watching a DVR replay of Pacquiao\'s sublime performance, I began pondering a boxer\'s training regimen. The wheels began turning.

Has there ever been a study of the effects of high altitude training on equine athletes?  Is it possible that MTB developed a short term aerobic advantage in speed and stamina at the 10 furlongs because of his preparation/training above 4,000 ft in New Mexico?  His closing 1/4 was over 2 seconds faster than any other horse in the race.

Or is this completely ridiculous and a result of delusional thoughts caused by the concussion that my bank account took in the Kentucky Derby yesterday?

[reboundman]

My brother asked his girlfriend who she wanted to bet early in the day, and she said \"put $20 on whoever is wearing pink\". When MTB came home, she yelled \"yay! team pink won!!!\". My brother\'s face went ghostly white. He forgot to place her bet.

Needless to say, he\'s in the doghouse...

[Leamas57]

I live in Phoenix and believe in this (altitude) big time. The summer meets go north to 4000 feet and any horse that hasn\'t been up there and run for at least two weeks is a toss. Also believe it works in reverse.

[BB]

I agree with jmetro here. This was a combination of factors, with the golden rail and \"Calvin on (at CD)\" being big factors, the surface (likely) a BIG factor, and the change in tactics (likely) a HUGE factor. Look at the PPs. This was the first time he ran as a stone-cold closer (20 lengths off the lead for much of the race ... Durkin didn\'t even see him behind Mr Hot Stuff as he finished going through the field as they were on the backstretch). Add ALL those to Calvin\'s fearless ride, and I think you have enough to believe it wasn\'t mashed peyote juice from the land of enchantment.

[smalltimer]

I booked a bet of my daughter\'s about 25 years ago.  The horse paid over $ 50.00 to win cause he was wearing a pink hood.  She was only 8 years old,  so I refused to pay.
I still hear about it to this day.

[TreadHead]

I do follow racing, but I don\'t pay any attention to what historians, the general public, or DRF talking heads write about it, because you cannot count on any of them to understand the underlying data.

You\'ve got me on the \"class\" thing however, because so few races are run at this level, and of those, so very few of them run on off tracks or in situations where 90% of the field has no off-track experience.  But I\'m sure there at least 10s of examples, if not hundreds, of horses that have jumped from the 5,6,7 range to the 0,1 range 1st time on the mud, regardless of \"class\".  That\'s what happened here I\'m guessing, and if so, there is PLENTY of historical data to explain it.

Your assertion of completely unexplainable provides fuel to the fire of the drug conspiracy theorists, whether you believe it was drugs or not, and I think it does a tremendous disservice to the horse and its connections.  I\'ll happily eat my words if it does turn out something was amiss, but for now I think this horse should be celebrated and not questioned.

[alm]

Miff

I have immense respect for your posts.  Having said this, the Derby didn\'t seem at all suspicioius to me other than being a race full of minor stories adding up to a major result.

First, FF supposedly got hurt early in the race or simply was hyped and couldn\'t overcome his layoff.

Dunkirk almost fell out of the gate and could not handle the track nor his jockey.

PON translated his synth form into mud form, but his average ability showed up despite having a late shot at winning.

The horses who ran close to PON probably ran to their abilities, track condition or not.

The winner is probably a mudder in the classic sense of the word, improving to a different level under the track conditions.  Having said that, he blew past the field, but he did it rather slowly when considering it in absolute terms.  

I\'ve always believed mudders were sturdy but slower horses who simply don\'t slow down any further in the mud.  I have a filly who only runs decently on off tracks, but she never runs faster times in the mud or slop...she just beats the other horses who slow down under the circumstances.

For what it\'s worth, this Derby winner was a champion last year, albeit in Canada.  He had SOME quality.  He had two mediocre prep races, but they were kind of like workouts...spaced nicely before Kentucky.

There was no way to handicap and select him, but for what it is worth I backed off any serious play on the Derby once I saw the track conditions.  I could not make a credible case (to myself) for anyone winning the race, said that to the room I was sitting in just before the start and was not surprised at the outcome.  

There are more interesting betting races today at Calder.

[Michael D.]

pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have a theory.  I think there is something
> strange in the way that Borel hugs the rail.  Much
> much closer to the rail than your typical rail
> trip.  I certainly understand the geometry of it
> but he is this close to the rail even on the
> straightaways.  Is it possible that this portion
> of the track was as hard as a superhighway?  With
> a fairly slow pace after the first fraction I am
> stunned that a horse could come back like this.
> This is not just a question of saving ground.  I
> think something else was at play here.  I am also
> wondering a little about street sense.  Did he win
> anything significant or run a high beyer outside
> of his inside wins at churchill?  Food for
> thought.



I\'m going with your theory.

Borel rides closer to the rail than any jock in history. It\'s no coincidence that so many of these horse explode. I\'ve just seen it too many times.

Also, 2:02.66 doesn\'t have to be that fast, assuming the rail was super-quick. Just about every good colt got knocked out this year, and the two most talented dirt colts left got wiped out at the start yesterday. From 2-19, this might have been one of the slowest Derby groups in a long time.

[reboundman]

Could that be why MTB wasn\'t 70 or 80 to one? All the women betting on \"team pink\"? lol...