Big jumps

[Michael D.]

Looks like MTB jumped about 4.5 points in the Derby.

Other big jumps, from just the Derby runners -

WSB - 3.75 in the Wood
MM - 3.5 in the Ill Derby
Hot Stuff - 4.5 in maiden win
HMB - 4.25 in TP stks win
PC - 6 points in the Ark Derby
IWR - 9.5 in the Gotham
Atomic Rain - 3.75
Dunk - 10.5 in allw win
Summer Bird - 6.5 in Ark Derby
DP - 4.75 in UAE Derby
Flying Private - 4.75 Allw


I certainly didn\'t have the horse, but a 4.5 move from MTB doesn\'t look all that much out of whack (if that\'s the number). The trainer and running style suggested a jump wasn\'t in the cards, but the breeding, jock, and eventual run along the golden rail did point in that direction. And Jerry did allude to a positive pattern before the race.

[TGJB]

Michael-- since you bring this up:

Last year (?) there was a discussion before and after the Belmont about what kind of pattern it would take to win the TC. Now a) I haven\'t done the figure yet (hopefully today), and b) MTB is probably not fast enough, there are very good horses waiting to run in the Preakness and Belmont. But this is the kind of pattern that could produce a cluster of 3 big efforts-- no backward moves coming in, the first big one in the Derby, rather than in a prep, which would require 4 big ones in a row. Only negative for that to happen is the big jump from the 2yo top. Off the top of my head, most similar one I can remember (without looking) is Charismatic, except he made the jump one race earlier.

[jack72906]

Even with only 2 weeks in between starts JB?

[TGJB]

An awful lot of Derby winners have beat me by pairing up on 2 weeks rest in the Preakness-- check the Archives. The issue with this guy is how much of what he did is just loving an off track. That\'s in terms of running his top again, not winning-- like I said, this field may be a lot tougher.

I don\'t think I hit this point hard enough. The California horses were coming out of races run under medication rules and testing that were much more like the Derby ones than the other horses had, and ran much closer to their form. This may have had as much an impact on what happened as anything else-- one horse jumped, the race collapsed. We\'ll see what it looks like when I do the day.

Neg 4 for Rachel, only question was whether it was better. Second filly pairs, rest collapse.

[BB]

I know this doesn\'t necessarily speak to the effort extended, but has any horse ever run in that neighborhood more (seemingly) wrapped up than Rachel? The efficiency and explosiveness of her action down the stretch was just amazing. Even if MTB loses in Baltimore, there should be 100,000 at Elmont just to see her in the Acorn, let alone who goes in the other race.

[alm]

Re: Charismatic

Correct me if I am wrong, but Cal medication rules were very different from Ky medication rules when Charismatic popped up in Ky.  I believe Cal was much more strict in that time period, allowing only a single pain killer from a short list.  Ky was pretty wide open then and a cocktail of painkillers was permissable.

Pairing up with the Lexington may not seem strange at all if the horse\'s new level was due to the fact he was feeling no pain.

[P-Dub]

Any possibility of RA running in the Belmont??  RTR just did it.  Thoughts??

[miff]

Belmont Park on June 6 is the next objective for Rachel Alexandra, the spectacular 20 1/4-length winner of the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), but not for the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). Instead, trainer Hal Wiggins has the $300,000 Acorn (gr. I) for 3-year-old fillies at one mile on his radar.

[Michael D.]

I don\'t have a major problem with the generic pattern Jerry. There is some two week risk though, and the market never seems to price that in. I also have to strip out the golden rail, and add a point for Borel outside of Louisville. I probably won\'t be playing for the 1 in the Preakness.

[Beginner]

Two questions then:
1.  What are the medication rules in MD?
2.  What if the track is slop again?

[BB]

I know nothing about the connections (other than that one of the half-owners is ethically-challenged), but, based on everything I\'ve read so far, I\'d be really surprised if they tried her against the colts. Based on the climate in the \"post-Eight-Belles era\", it would take brass ones to enter her even in the Travers, let alone the Belmont. They can easily make the case that taking on Zenyatta in the BC is the ultimate goal, and challenge enough.

[jma11473]

Owners have been quoted in DRF as saying \"Colts should run against colts and fillies should run against fillies.\" Whether money or glory change their minds remains to be seen.

[TreadHead]

Study idea:

What does a horse run next out (broken down by new top, pair, off, X) when their last race was a new top of at least 3 or more points and that new top occured in the slop or mud and this next race is now being run within 4 weeks of that new slop top.

I\'m expecting the results to be pretty bad, but I don\'t have a whole lot of available data to attempt it with and no DB of figures to run this query off of.