Derby figure

[TGJB]

I gave MTB a big figure (slight negative), and came damn close to giving him 2 points better. We\'re going to post both days later today, it will take some time. But you will see that taking off 2 points works as well or better for a lot of horses, and either way works with the day, given the time between races and 6 hours since the previous 2 turn race. In the end I decided that the track condition and distance made it more likely horses would X, the gaps made it more likely some of the trailers would not be pushed to the end, and I didn\'t want to give two horses jumps that big. They jumped enough as it is.

But this will be the first Derby or any 3yo or older stake with a big field and lots of data that I review.

The big question with the winner is how much of the explosion was due to loving an off track.

[miff]

\"The big question with the winner is how much of the explosion was due to loving an off track\"

JB,

Yes that and the fact that most winners that day raced along the inside. The ESPN feed had several jocks state that the inside was the place to be.


Mike

[ajkreider]

For comparison, they Beyer guys gave it a 105 - which, given the lack of ground lost, means they had it slower.  They also had the group for 2nd in the 95 range.

[TGJB]

The ground will be on the sheet, you\'ll be able to decide for yourself whether the rail meant more than saving ground. Some of the ones on it ran well, others not so hot.

[miff]

AJ,

Jerry said he gave MTB a slight negative which would agree almost exactly with Beyer 105,converted scale to scale. If JB had used the faster option(neg -2 1/4/-2 1/2) then he would have been faster than Beyer by app 4-5 Beyer points.

I guess that JB and BEYER had to deal with the changing track speed. It will be interesting to see the RAGS fig(10 for MTB going in, equals app TG 6 1/2) which I think may be slower. Rags would need to be at app 3 1/4 to be in agreement with TG/Beyer.

Mike

[miff]

JB,

When they just don\'t run,not even a bias will assist.

Mike

[TGJB]

When you adjust for ground loss (which there was a whole lot less of than I thought there would be, by the way) we give the race a little better than Beyer. But you\'re right, without that it\'s dead on the same.

[jimbo66]

Look forward to seeing the figures, because you are implying that the rail was just the shortest distance and not \"golden\".  I watched and bet on the races for two days and saw one winning move after another where the winner was on the rail and the outside horses floundered.  The jockeys also felt the rail was golden and \"packed tighter\".  If the figures don\'t point in that direction, it would be hard to take them at face value, at least for me.

[rando]

Jimbo   Iwas at CD for Thurs.Fri. and Sat. Not a lot of the big name jocks stayed on the rail when they had a chance.Rose did and Borel does even if the bias is against.Rail worth 2+++++? lengths IMO  PRADO AND GOMEZ GOT BEAT WITH THE BEST HORSE AND OPPORTUNITY TO STAY ON THE RAIL (fRIDAY)

[miff]

Jim,

I completely agree that the rail was giant those days but do not think there is really any way for the figures themselves to show a live rail.I think it\'s not true that horses that ran on the rail had to run tops to prove the rail was live.

My take is that the horses that ran on the rail were able to perform to their ability OR move up if they fired,and the ones off the rail were disadvantaged by the deeper outside paths and perhaps not able to perform to their ability or move forward.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Mike,

Makes sense to me.

Now, how to use that to handicap the Preakness......

[miff]

Jim,

Someone just posted that a couple of speeds defected.Big Drama is a nice horse as is the lightly raced Hull, distance questions of course but they can both run.Don\'t really like anyone out of the Derby including that former slow rat,MTB, especially on a dry surface.

Think we need to see the entries,figs,draw,works and look for a new shooter.


Mike

[Flighted Iron]

Are we talking of Mr Borels rail or the others rails?

mjs