Musket Man

[jimbo66]

Monmouth Guy,

It is not that fast of a field.  Rachel is the exception.  She has the negative 4.  Not sure about Big Drama\'s sheet, but guessing that his sprint fig is next fastest.  Of the route horses, you get POTN at around 0 and Friesan Fire at 1.  Mustket Man and General Quarters can also run in the 0 to 1 range.  And of course, I almost forgot, the Derby winner ran a negative 1 or so.  

Handicapping this race is not that hard, which is not to say that winning is going to be easy.  I say the handicapping is not hard, because our \"thesis\" for betting the race has to revolve around Rachel Alexander.  If she pairs or even regresses 2 or 3 points, she wins.  If you believe she will run that kind of effort, your choices are to skip the race, look for value underneath her in the exotics, or single her in the pick-4.  If you think she could take a significant backward move, like I do, then you have a whole different thesis to play with.  She can go backwards for any one of three reasons, and we don\'t have to agree on the reasons.  You can believe that \"horses that go too fast and take big jump ups to new tops, are very vulnerable.  You can believe that coming back in 2 weeks off a significant new top is going to get her, or you can believe that the racing dynamics of competing against colts that can actually run both early and late with her will compromise her chances (as opposed to fillies that ran 6\'s and 7\'s on TG or 74 beyer figures in the Oaks).  

I say big move backwards, enough to put her out of the triple.  

So, who to play.  What did you think of the track on Derby day?  I buy into the common theme that the rail was extremely golden.  Mine that Bird, off a six point new top himself, was on the golden rail, as was Papa Clem.  I am downgrading both their races.  POTN was three wide all the way around the track.  I am upgrading his performance.  Friesan Fire, called by JB the \"horse most likely to be in the money\" prior to the Derby, didn\'t fire at all.  I don\'t say that to throw salt at the host, I say that to point out that horse was coming into the Derby in good form.  I like the fact that he X\'ed and didn\'t run a big race.  He figures double the odds he was in the Derby now, and the Derby could have given him some conditioning, as opposed to knocking him out, if he had run a big effort.  General Quarters is on a pattern where he races well one race, then poorly the next.  He also x\'ed.  I say he is very bettable at 12-1 or so in the Preakness.  Mustet Man is a much tougher call to me.  He battled hard in the Derby, ran another tough race, didn\'t get the rail bias in his favor and should have gotten second.  I am not going to use him as much as I use the top 3, but he is certainly bettable.

I will throw Rachel out of the exactas and tris.  Use POTN at maybe 5-1, Friesan Fire at maybe 8-1 and General Quarters at 12-1 in exacta boxes and triples, sprinking in a little of Big Drama and Musket Man.

[Dudley]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good point.
>
> I am not as focused on the Derby fig as the
> Preakness fig.  
>
> Let\'s assume that a majority of the regressive
> Derby figs do have legit excuses attached to them.
>  In that case wouldn\'t you expect the percentage
> of those horses who run back better in the
> Preakness to be higher?

That could merely confirm their distance limitations- another reason we see so many X-plosions in the Ky Derby imo.  If they couldn\'t stay the 10f route 2 weeks prior shortening up a 16th at Pimlico isn\'t going to improve them. Aside from Preakness runners, the other big factor in Derby X-s is the 150,000 screaming fans and 20-horse fields. Some horses just aren\'t up to the task. Bringing this thread full circle, that\'s another question Musket Man has answered.

[Dudley]

> Possibly. You don\'t know what ride he would have
> gotten. Just stop already.


But I do know what kind of ride he would NOT have gotten- the rail-skimmer Borel gave him. Look PDub, I\'m no Mike Smith basher. He\'s won/lost me money as much as any of \'em. And it\'s more about the HORSE anyway- take Skip Away for example. Smith rode him just fine. Zenyatta\'s owners aren\'t displeased with him either  and he is a HOF Jock. But it\'s no secret what his preferred route is. Same for Borel. They\'re polar opposites. All else being equal in equines, your money is better on Calvin\'s mount. I\'m just sayin\'. Now I\'ll stop. For this year. ;-)

[spa]

I believe there will be 5 noses on the wire and Musket Man will be the winner.................

[P-Dub]

Fair enough Dudley.  Good luck this weekend.

[richiebee]

Jim:

I am seeing the race about the way you are. RA fastest, offers no value as the
expected favorite. She may be on the multiple race tickets, but she certainly
will not be singled. If I drink enough Belgian ale on race day I may get brave
and toss her.

A few words on RA. I do not understand why Owner Jackson chose to take her away
from Trainer Wiggins at this point. She just ran a very good Oaks and probably
could not be doing any better. Let her run in the Preakness for Wiggins, who
has done very little wrong with her. After the Preakness, turn RA over to Steve
Abussen for a little R&R and a Summer/Fall campaign. No matter how RA fares in
Baltimore, if she ends up in the Belmont Stakes I may join the hand wringing,
Kool Aid drinking racing fans/animal rights proponents.

Others: POTN, Musket Man and Papa Clem within a length of each other at the
finish of the Derby. I will leave it to the patternistas to determine which of
these three moves in which direction coming out of the Derby. Of the three I
would use POTN most heavily, respecting, as you do, the human connections
(Baffert/Gomez).

Some like to evaluate POTN\'s chance on a fast track using all kinds of
statistics and comparisons of one synthetic surface to another and which of
these surfaces is most like a dirt surface; I would rather simplify the
equation thusly: its a 50/50 proposition-- either his good synth form translates
to a fast track, or it doesn\'t.

I am hoping Mine That Bird takes a lot of money because I think he has next to
no chance on a fast track and he will not be included in my multiple race
wagers.

General Quarters turned in a slow work 1:04 at CD; I am sure the trainer will
be heard to say (a) \"That\'s just what he needed\"; (b) \"He did it easily\" or
(C) \"Just a maintenance work\". Maybe I\'m wrong, but I think the clock is about
to strike midnight on this Cinderella story.

Some on this board are contending that Friesan Fire was poorly ridden in the
Derby; Ray Kerrison in the NY Post reported that Saez wrapped up on FF
immediately out of the starting gate and merely let him gallop around the track.
FF worked 58 and change at Pimlico and I will likely draw the proverbial line
through this one\'s Derby and include him on the multi race tickets at odds
between 6/1 - 12/1 off his awful Derby non- effort.


As to Big Drama, I have thought all Winter/Spring that the Florida 3Y0s were
overrated and probably nothing I will see in the next few days will change this
perception.

I think they draw the undercard later today, and hopefully there will be some
big fields and beatable favorites. I got a little too cute on the Derby P4,
throwing out the overbet Frankel filly Visit, the tired Pletcher filly Game
Face and Einstein. If Cowboy Cal had prevailed in the Woodford, I would have
been alive to what I would imagine would have been decent P4s to the 2nd - 4th
place Derby finishers, and probably would have been tallying my winnings at the
eighth pole in what would have been another tantalyzing near miss.

Back to the drawing board.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

awesome analysis on the broader field as usual but I have one issue and that\'s the toss of RA.

You and I are in the same camp when it comes to looking to beat bad favs and most of my dribble on this board is around when I find a fav that I think can be beaten but, from a TG standpoint, she towers over this field in the exact same way that BB towered over last year\'s field.

Other than RA, there\'s a bunch in here that can run in that 0 plus or minus a bit range, I agree with you about which ones are more likely to do their thing on Sat but.....Rachael has to back up by 5 pts with he weight break to lose this and I think that\'s a tough call to make.  She will go backward, but by 5 points?

Two things to be clear....I can\'t bet on her at 3-5 or 4-5 or whatever she will be but I also don\'t like just tossing money away which is what I think a bet against her is.  The other thing is that in no way shape or form should she be running back so quick.  This will likely be one of her last races as she needs alot more time than 2 weeks to recover from a historic effort like that and I think that\'s a real shame as I believe she\'s in a different class than the other horses we have seen in the last 5 years at least.

Good luck on Sat!

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- FF was supposed to be cut up pretty bad after the Derby, explaining his stinker, yet made an amazing turnaround to not only be ready to run this weekend, but work fast about a week after getting beat up. Hmmmm...

In an unrelated story, from what I can find out so far, a diffrent lab will be used for Preakness testing. Still trying to get a lot of questions answered about that.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I hear you about Rachel, but I do believe she backs up 6+ points.  There was some data put there on \"another board\" about fillies that have run the TG equivalent of negative 1 and how they fared in their next start.  Apparently about 60 fillies have done this.  The vast majority bounced between 6 and 10 points.  And none were 3 year old fillies coming back on 15 days or less.  Rachel is special, but she has to be really really special to win on Saturday and do so at even money or less.

Another point.  What do you make of the negative 4?  TGJB says she ran \"at least that fast\".  I guess I buy that, but I don\'t think it matters.  How much credibility do you give to huge figures run on a wet track where the margin is 20 lengths (or any double digit margin for that matter).  Not sure how many years you have been betting races, but the \"beaten lengths\" margins on these non-fast tracks are almost always bigger than average and the associated figures are aberrational.  That doesn\'t mean I am saying they are wrong, I am saying that don\'t matter when handicapping the horse\'s next race.  To me, there are multiple valid reasons for betting against RAchel on Saturday.  First off, if you buy the negative 4, then you have the \"she ran too fast too soon\" theory that many on this board are fond of.  Then, you compound that with running the negative 4 off of 15 days rest, coming back off a 4 point new top.  And finally, as I said, if you view the negative 4 as irrelevant because it was earned on a wet track and is a bit of an aberrational figure, then you have to handicap her as if the Oaks didn\'t happen.  Off the secondary top of \"0\", which she earned in paceless races, against inferior competition, she is a contender in this field, IMO, way way \"underlaid\".  

I am going to bet her out of the triple, but to be honest, triples are something that may attract 1/8th of my bankroll in this race.  I will be betting the majority of my money against her in the combination of leaving her off the pick-4\'s, out of the exactas and betting against her in the win pool.

[covelj70]

hey jimbo!

first of all, this is my first post ever from a plane.  Love this wi-fi on a plane bit.  Have a 6 hour flight now with the preakness day pp\'s due out any minute now.  Doesn\'t get any better than this.

at any rate, this 13 post that R drew really really makes things interesting.  

you raise excellent points about her as usual.

A few thoughts.  I was standing right on the rail on Oaks day and the track wasn\'t wet, it had dried out very well by the time the oaks went off.  I totally agree with discounting big wet track figs (Pyro in the BC juv, etc) but I don\'t think that applies in this case.

The thing that strikes me about her the most is the way she kicks out her back legs.  Just haven\'t seen anything like that in recent history.  That\'s where she gets all of the power from.  The amount of dirt that she kicks up, even during a gallop in just staggering.

One anecdote, the day before the oaks, I was on the backstretch and RA and POTN came out at exactly the same time.  Now, they were just galloping so in no way do times, speed, etc mean anything and I don\'t want to imply otherwise with what I am about to write.  But, RA started into her gallop about 100 yards behind POTN and the rider was literally leaning backwards trying to slow her down, never seen anything like it, it was like a cartoon.  POTN was doing his thing, moving very fluidily and nicely as he always does but when they came around the second time, RA was 100 yards in front of POTN.  Again, this wasn\'t a race or anything so it\'s not like POTN\'s jock was asking him or anything like that but I just use the story to point out that she is a total total freak who just has an unreal cruising speed even when the jock is literally choking her.

I am going to be more of a spectator in this one than anything, especially now that she has drawn such a bad post.  I will still twink around with some pk 4\'s but even with her post, I think she\'s a far superior horse than these.

[Michael D.]

I put MM in the same category as PC and POTN. They have the right running style for the Preakness, and all three are fast enough. What are the odds that all three regress significantly off the grueling Derby effort? Don\'t know to be honest. Law of averages says one probably runs well. PC has the two big efforts in the past 5 weeks and a lethargic work over the track, so I might be inclined to toss him. POTN might have been aided by the off going in the Derby, and I\'m not sure he offers a ton of value as the 5-1 3rd choice. MM at 10-1 is more appealing to me. More than fast enough, and should get a rail trip behind BD.

Big Drama is dangerous. Probably a furlong longer than he wants to go, but if the track is kind to speed, this guy has a shot to take them w-t-w. I\'ll play against MTB coming off the golden rail trip. FF looked like a 3 type to me going into the Derby, and I\'ll play for that figure here. GQ looks like a 2 type. Take The Points can jump here, but by how much? Has two dry track runs - a 7 at two, and a 4 this year. Good timing for Pletcher. A 3 point move could put him in the number at a price. I will play RA to bounce.

BD and TTP look like interesting longshots. MM might get the best trip. Have to see how this track looks before committing to a play.

[Silver Charm]

If MTB doesn\'t do what he did on Derby Day POTN wins in a finished not all that different from what Silver Charm did.

And now he is 5-1? Looks tasty enough.

Let\'s give MM a Free House comparison except hent favored that year in the Preakness and MM will be long ways from being favored.

Key RA over the top of all of\'em as a saver for \"Just in Case\"

[big18741]

Blinks on seem to have sharpened up TTP in his works.He should be forwardly placed and fine with the distance.

Big Drama looks dangerous.The only thing of concern would be his finish going shorter.Both 8.5f races he came home 33 for the last 5/16ths.Bullring at Delta and quicksand at Calder might have been the reason for that.Pimlico should be more to his liking.

Could sit BD and TTP around the track.

Any thoughts on MM veering right after the wire on the overhead shot? Gassed horse or Coa\'s doing?

[basket777]

wins what the derby?  no one in that race on that day was going to beat the winner.

no one

[jimbo66]

Silver,

Yuck.  Keying the 4-5 shot over the next 3 or 4 favorites requires you to hand in your gambler\'s license.  My wife might make that play.

Why not Rachel to show?......