Musket Man

[spa]

Did anyone else notice the poor ride Coa gave this horse? The first quarter of the race was perfect and each quarter was worse. If He stays on the rail from post 2, he wins it all.

[mkram]

As my key horse, I was ticked off to see him 7 wide struggling off the turn in the slop, especially after the rail trip in the early part of the race.  Getting bumped out of the place was just more salt to the wound.

That said, I have never seen a complete overhead shot to see why Coa came off the rail and to what extent during the far turn.  I gave him the benefit of the doubt that he was making a move and did not want to get stuck behind horses.

Do you know where I can see a complete overhead shot?

[spa]

The blimp shot is shown on TV/G. Why didn\'t the riders claim foul against Gomez? Could this have been a \"boat race?\" Honest to God, the winner should have been 200/1.

[Michael D.]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The blimp shot is shown on TV/G. Why didn\'t the
> riders claim foul against Gomez?


MM went from the 6 path to the 3.5 path, and PC from the 5 to the 2.5 prior to POTN swerving out and causing the trouble. No doubt that Pioneer\'s drift out caused MM and PC to lose the few inches they lost 2nd and 3rd by, but I\'m guessing the stewards put part of the blame on those two drifting in. Nobody had MTB, so nobody cares. If it was for the win though, this would have been quite the controversy.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDaRM1hcWXw

[NoCarolinaTony]

Well....I did do the Musket Man Back Wheel so the saver would have been nice and pure luck.......He was two path until early back stretch an thought he gave it up to give him options...but he choose wide wider widest....

NCT

[P-Dub]

Wow. You mean Mike Smith isn\'t the only jockey to go wide with a horse?? Stunning. You wouldn\'t think otherwise around here.

[Dudley]

P-Dub,

If Mikey was on MTB, is that our Derby winner? \'nuf said. ;-)

Speaking of other bad rides. Saez didn\'t do FF any favors either. He had the rail passing the wire the first time then jerked him away into traffic. Why gain that position going into the clubhouse turn only to cede it? Duh. Maybe FF just doesn\'t like it down in there. I dunno.

[sighthound]

I heard today Fresian Fire is a go in the Preakness

[MonmouthGuy]

Musket Man worked :46 3/5th at MP this morning.

I think he could be the biggest overlay among the top 6.

10-1 isn\'t impossible.

[Dudley]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Musket Man worked :46 3/5th at MP this morning.
>
> I think he could be the biggest overlay among the
> top 6.
>
> 10-1 isn\'t impossible.


I concur MTH-Guy. Great value. Could see similar on Fresian for those so-inclined.
Good luck playing this puzzler. And kudos in advance to those who solve it.

[Beginner]

I did.  And I\'m not being CTC.  I actually PM\'d Covel to ask his thoughts about an ALL/ALL just prior to the race.  Being a fairly new handicapper and not trusting my basic skills to flesh out all the variables (IWR scratch, sloppy track, poly to dirt, etc.), I hit the caveman ALL / ALL.  Imagine my chagrin when 3 horses hit the wire in a photo for second and the shortest one comes second with all that bumping.  Needless to say, the payout would have been significantly larger...

[MonmouthGuy]

FF is a puzzle.

I looked back at the archives the last 13 years and 20 horses ran back in the Preakness 2 weeks after an X.

15 X\'d again

2 off

1 pair  

2 tops

Only 1 hit the board, Louis Quatorze in 1996, who went wire to wire at 9-1 which is about where I expect FF to go off.

Reluctant toss for me.  He has never run fast enough to win this one, and I think he may get fried on the front end.

[Dudley]

Thanks for the historical on that. But I\'d say you have to consider how/why they X\'d. In FF\'s case, I\'d X-cuse his. He didn\'t bounce. And I go further to claim the majority of regressive Ky Derby figs you see are not bounces. Case in point, back to FF- banged out of the gate, stupid ride by Saez resulting in a grabbed quarter seem more culpable to me than a reaction to a string of stressful efforts.

[P-Dub]

Dudley Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub,
>
> If Mikey was on MTB, is that our Derby winner?
> \'nuf said. ;-)

Possibly. You don\'t know what ride he would have gotten. Just stop already.

>

[MonmouthGuy]

Good point.

I am not as focused on the Derby fig as the Preakness fig.  

Let\'s assume that a majority of the regressive Derby figs do have legit excuses attached to them.  In that case wouldn\'t you expect the percentage of those horses who run back better in the Preakness to be higher?

LQ showed it is not impossible, but, if my review of the sheets is correct Dollar Bill (4th) and Stephen Got Even (4th) were the only other two horses to run back to their pre Derby number, and both were still too slow to hit the board---which may be the case with FF in a very fast field.