just a few quick thoughts on the big late pk 4 and then some of the other stakes on the undercard.
Affirmatif seems vulnerable as heavy chalk in the first leg of the late pick 4 where most of my dollars will go for the day. Pretty short run to the turn and alot of speed parked inside him. He will have to be hard used early and he got caught in his last in a similar situation. Race Shapes seems to favor Beacon Hill Road who has kept good company but is slow on the TGs and Col Rutlegde who looks great on the sheets with his dirt figures. Note that he has a half who ran well on the turf so I think he\'s got a big shot. I think its a spread race but I will play the 4 and 5 for a larger dollar amount than the rest of the field
I think Torpedo Run offers very good value and could mix up the pot in the 10th. His figs are competitive with the favs, he\'s never taken a step backward, gets a little weight and is a closer shortening up, an angle I love. I will use the obvious ones in here as well with Silver Edition, Ravalo and Ah Day on my tickets but will look to create some value with Torpedo on my bigger dollar amount ticket.
Race 11 is an absolutely fabulous race. Love this one. Only big stand I can take here is that proudinsky has only ever run 2 big races, both on soft ground at the fair grounds and other than that, has been overhyped (much to my wallet\'s dismay). I know the rail was dead on derby day but he\'s disappointed pretty much everywhere other than FG. On my deeper tickets for lower dollar amounts, I will spread with Monba, Parading, Kiss the Kid, Stike a Deal and Lauro. I will play Stike the Deal, Kiss the Kid and Lauro for bigger dollar amounts as Strike the Deal usually runs his number off the layoff and his last was just a monster effort at Aqd. He got the time off you need from an effort like that and could fire huge off the shelf. Kiss the Kid has kept good company with his last two losses to Kip and Big Brown and he has some big back figs to run back to and is well rested. Lauro is a freaky sort who comes off the shelf firing with big efforts. This may be too short for him (he ran his first lifetime race at a 1 3/16th for goodness sakes, think we would ever see that in the states) but hes\' really fast so I will use him just in case.
I think the big race is an open an shut case so I will single Rachel on my big tickets and maybe play $1 savers with POTN, Big Drama, General Quarters and Take the Points. I don\'t like any of the others in here. Agree with many on the board that MM and PC are 0-2-x. FF has never run fast enough to win before and while he may run better than the derby, a new lifetime top off that effort would be a surprise. I think Mine that Bird will bounce and Pimlico isn\'t as conducive to the big come from behind jobs that we see at CD (at least when calvin is in the irons). Think the others are all too slow to talk about.
In the 7th, Dynaforce looks like a big play against. She\'s giving weight, coming off a layoff with Billy probably having bigger plans for her down the road and not as fast as some of the others when adjusted for weights save for the one effort at the spa last year. I love the 3, Shytoe Lafeet at 10-1 in this race with the weight break and coming around back to the top which, with the weight would put her right there. I will also use Quiet Meadow and Tejida and try to keep Dynaforce out of the exacta.
The 8th looks like a two horse race with Taquarb looking set to run back to his big top and Nuclear Wayne fast with a good pattern so I will use those 2 only in the early pk 4.
good luck to everyone
