3yo Negative Tops-- -1 or more before July --Update

[TGAB]

Here\'s an update of the 3yo negative tops table.

[covelj70]

thanks very much for this.

No wonder there is such a raging debate on the board here about this race, the statistics say she\'s almost just as likely to pair or go \"off\" as she is to \"X\"  she pairs or is off and she wins easy (assuming that Borel stays true to form and the big number isn\'t earned bc of a wide trip).

she goes off and she losses.

I recognize that there are some other factors at work here (i.e. only 2 weeks and a filly and the 13 post) but bottom-line, she\'s about 50% likely to win (based on historical big figure numbers).

I stick with my gameplan based on this.  Single in the pk 4 but otherwise avoid (aside from my stupid double bets).  As Jerry said recently, the other thing is even if the other 50% hits and she runs up the track, there\'s no sure thing that we can get the winner anyway so I go right back to the idea that it\'s a tough argument to play big against her.

[Frost King]

And if you right and do catch her bouncing, the pay-offs will be very rewarding.

[bloodline]

Jerry,

A couple observations - 1) these horses still won 38% and were 1-2 64%. As a rule they still fire. Be interesting to see $2 ROI. 2) The 14 days rest horses were a small sample of 6 and excluding Barbaro had 2 Pairs or 33%. Won 2 of 6, 33%.  

Despite the fact it comes 14 days after a grueling race at a distance too far this early for 3 year olds, the Preakness is one of the most formful big races year after year.  Funny Cide, Smarty, War Emblem, Street Sense (without CD rail bias) Big Brown all fired huge - top or no top. After all we\'re trying to pick winners not new tops.

Its always been that way.  The Derby form rules the Preakness 14 days later.  How can this be reconciled to bounce theory? IMO horses are very often much less likely to bounce or X out on 7-14 days rest than 4-5 weeks. Why? Because they haven\'t gone out of form yet. By Belmont time they are very often over the top in the Derby form cycle and thats why its so hard to win the Triple Crown. When the old timers got a horse right and they \"topped\' what did they do?  They got the condition book out and tried to find a race in 7 days and run them back quick when they were \"right\".  Horses go in and out of form and in the old days they would just keep running them so it was easier to see. What you are doing with TG is graphically demonstrating 2 maxims trainers have known forever - hard race and form cycles.  

For tomorrow that points to PON for me. He should run back to his 2nd best Derby fig unless you are right about 2nd time dirt regress.  The old turf to dirt shoot the wad angle. MTB was aided by insane (and i think undersestimated on this site) CD rail bias. As for the filly she should run well too but totally diferent pace scenario will make it a lot tougher for her. Also I believe BD is a sprinter duck out of water here. IMHO.

Bob

[alm]

It\'s interesting that the examples you cite to make the case that the Preakness is formful are all recent.  It\'s kind of like the debate over global warming...we know for a fact that things are heating up, but not why this is the case...we cite the temperature change, but ignore that it\'s happened before.

In fact, there was an era when the Preakness was not formful.  There are examples of Preakness winners who flamed out as Derby choices.  I\'m not sure the sample is large enough to draw any conclusions, regardless of how far back you go.

This still turns into a specific race on a specific day with specific horses, which will never repeat itself.  I don\'t think you can make or break the filly\'s chances based upon previous history.

However, you can decide to bet her or against her, knowing that she\'s 50% to run well enough to win, or lose.  It\'s about the value you are looking for.

If you want to make that play, God bless you and good luck.  In this case, I prefer to bet a trainer, a guy who I don\'t think is a consummate egotist and who I don\'t think would be rolling his horse back into this race just for the opportunity to travel to the craphole Pimlico racecourse.  I think he\'s a guy who thinks he has a real shot...Larry Jones.  I go with Freisan Fire and a Larry Jones Black Eyed Susan-Preakness double.

[Uncle Buck]

This is a really good piece of information. I\'m startled at what I\'m seeing. I\'m also convinced that Big Brown was the best horse to come along in a long, long time after seeing this.

Rachel can move backwards 3 or 4 points and win by a length or two. I think she\'ll back up to about a -1 or -2 and win wrapped up.

I\'m curious as to why the two weeks is such a concern with so many of the expert sheets guys on here. Silver Charm, Charismatic, Funny Cide, Smarty, Big Brown - they all ran right back in two weeks to win the Preakness easily and this gal Rachel is getting 5 lbs and is a much better horse than most of those I just mentioned.

[miff]

Add ANOTHER repeat winner to the list!

[covelj70]

Mike, I know its very premature, but what do you think she ran here?  You always have a great handle on the numbers before they come out.

[miff]

Cov,

Looking at the day\'s routes and the way they stopped the clock in the Preakness, RA looked 3w 3w, I\'d guess neg -1 or -2.

Very interesting comments by Borel ponying back after the race.He said \"The track was dry, no water, were they expecting rain?\"

If you believe the track became dry and cuppy,she ran even better than the fig she\'ll get.

Mike

[covelj70]

Thanks so much for the thoughts on the fig.  That would be pretty consistent with what the others who have put up huge figs have done in their next effort.

thanks again.

[miff]

Cov,

No question her \"toughest\" race ever. Hooked for 7f in a lively pace, cut it the entire distance and wide both turns.Toughest trip in there by a pole!


Mike

[covelj70]

I thought Johnny V did some good race riding into the first turn by making sure RA stayed wider than otherwise by drifting out.  Unfortunately, he didn\'t have the horse to make it work but good effort by JV who had a huge day.

[marcus]

...wonder if she actually \" X\'d \" and got the \"filly\" bounce out of the way ! ...

[miff]

Mark,

Doubt an X. She certainly slowed the last 3/16ths(19+ secs) but she ran hard the whole way.Final time (1.55.08 slowish) may be tricky re Borel\'s take on the dead surface during the race. The last race sprint that was a bit towards the slow side.Several races were fast though in the middle of the card( No Advantage, Everyday Heros and Ravalo)

There was a 2 hour break between the previous dirt race and the Preakness so there are some moving parts.We\'ll see when TG/BEYER/RAGS publish their figs.


Mike

[marcus]

You very well may be right about a - 1 to -2 range  number ,  she got 5 lbs but was fairly wide enough throughout . . .