Race Shape for Preakness

[jimbo66]

The first quarter mile of the Preakness tomorrow is really going to be interesting IMO.  

Sounds like the host has been completely overcome with \"Rachel-mania\", thinking she gets the front easily and is 1w/1w tomorrow.  If that does happen, then I think the race is over.  But it is hard to believe that the other jockeys will let that happen, based on the way the races were run today and the number of horses that won on the lead, from the rail, today.  

Blinkers come off Big Drama and those hoping for him to cut fast fractions up front are probably not going to get it IMO.  Don\'t think they will be on a suicide mission.  I think they have to hold position out of the gate, but they would be content to sit behind Rachel, if nobody else leaves.  

To me, the race takes shape with the decisions of the jockeys of Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Take the Points and to a lesser degree Pioneer of the Nile.  FF, PC and TTP all have natural stalking speed, albeit not really fast early.  Because they will all want to get position, I think all of those jockeys have to leave the gate, at least with some gusto, allowing them to gauge the pace of the race and look for position.  POTN showed some stalking speed in the Derby and it seems Baffert has sharpened him a bit in the last months.  Borel has to make an early call IMO.  Race shapes say he can clear with her.  But do you ride her that aggressively from post 13 and risk getting caught in an early pace duel, if you really believe you have the best horse?  I say \"no\".  I think they leave the gate and start making their way over, but not extremely quickly.  Borel will not be looking for the rail tuck with this filly.  I know he is \"singularly focused\" on saving ground, but he knows what kind of horse he has under him.  He will get an Oaks-like trip IMO.  I am pencilling in 2w/2w for Rachel and if she doesn\'t clear off going into the first turn, I think she gets beat.

[TGJB]

Saving ground from that post would be outside one, which is the most likely place she will be. And boy, are you wrong about Rachel-mania. I\'m going to use her with the ones I like, but I wish she would come out. I\'m going to be flinching while I watch this one.

Asmussen can be a real pain in the butt, but I don\'t envy the position he is in. If she wins he won\'t get the credit, if something bad happens it\'s on him.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Using her with the ones you like is still using her.  I understand she is fastest and you have to respect that.  

But I have been on this board a few years now.  Bellamy Road ran negative 5 and was as impressive as Rachel and had 4 weeks rest.  You threw him out.  You were ahead of the curve in having Smarty Jones much faster than Beyer and Rags, yet you threw him out, off the 3 weeks rest.  There are others.

She gets 2 weeks.  And some actual competition in the race.  Her secondary top of \"0\" is probably not fast enough with a 2w/2w trip.  

She reaks of bad favorite to me.  

We\'ll see in about 21 hours.

[TGJB]

I didn\'t throw out Bellamy Road, I might even have keyed him. In the case of SJ he was coming off the 0-2, not the top, and 0-2-2 in the Preakness. If Rachel goes back a couple and wins I\'ll be sending it in against her in the Belmont.

IWR and QR only went back a couple of points in the race following their top. While the 2 weeks is certainly big here, as I discussed in my comments, the problem with tossing her is that with one exception she is a LOT faster than the others, after you account for the 5 pounds. With a 2w 2w trip, a 4 point bounce makes her maybe even money.

[jimbo66]

You keyed High Limit, not Bellamy Road.  Sorry, but I still remember that.....  IT goes back to the controversial Louisiana Derby.  As I remember, you keyed High Limit in the Preakness as well.  At least in the seminars/analysis, not sure what you did with your actual dollars.

There are other \"non-TG figure\" factors she faces this time.  Where is Class when I need him, to explain it.....