Happy and relieved - payouts?

[shanahan]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Covelj,
>
> I know you own horses.  But the stuff you are
> going on about has nothing to do with ownership
> experience.  You are joining the \"predicting
> quarter cracks and other natural disasters
> escapade\".
>
> The filly running in the Belmont would be GREAT
> for racing.  Not just good, but great.  Imagine if
> we get lucky, and she is doing well enough to run,
> the Derby winner comes as well, and maybe Quality
> Road can make the race (I have no news on him, so
> not sure what his status is).  You add to that
> Charitable Man, who probably ran a 0 and is the
> son of a belmont winner, trained by an top trainer
> and ridden by last year\'s Belmont winning jockey.
> Great races and great rivalries make the sport
> great.  
>
> Not running \"big tops\", predicting disasters, then
> putting horses away for 6 months or retiring.  
>
> Imagine watching the filly hook up with Quality
> Road on the front end, instead of a rank and \"off
> his game\" Big Drama.
>
> Please stop predicting doom for sound horses.


Jimbo  - you are right, nice post.  I think my gut is listening to my heart and  also being too cautious about the stress factor - but I get that from TG.  I hope to hell she could win, but man...this might be the toughest - or courageous - decison of any owner in our lifetime.

Silver - ever been wrong?

[jimbo66]

Shanahan,

I really don\'t know.  I don\'t have a firm belief.  I am a gambler and fan, in that order.  I hope that top quality connections make the right decision for the filly.  I would hope and assume that if she is not 100%, they back off with her.  But I can tell you that by watching Jackson on TV talk and listening to the words he chose, he thinks he has something very special with her and he won\'t duck any challengers, if she is healthy.

which is what we should all want.  

I post on this board, and I use the TG product, because I believe Jerry makes the best figures out there.  So as a customer, i am happy.  But when I read TGJB talk about watching this race \"cringing\", hoping she doesn\'t break down and then I read all the posts after her great win about people wanting her to take 3 months off, I can\'t help but think that this kind of talking and postulating is part of the problem and not the solution.  But that is just one opinion.  The opinion of somebody who thought today\'s betting strategy was to leave the filly and the Derby Winner off of their tickets.......

[MonmouthGuy]

I want her to run in the Belmont so I can bet against her, but I can\'t imagine anyone with a head on their shoulders thinking that it is the right thing for this Filly.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Maybe I am just overly conservative by nature so I truly apologize if any of this is coming off the wrong way but this is just what I really believe.

Just to show that I put my money where my mouth is, I just brought a filly over from Europe that cost me alot of money.  We had a specific race picked out for her when we bought her but the timeframe was tight to make the race we had picked out.

My trainer called me last Saturday and told me he could breeze her if I wanted but that she had a bit of a foot bruise from going from galloping the first few days we brought her over over the soft turf in Ireland compared to the harder poly track at Santa Anita.  He said he had changed her shoes because he thought the angle of the shoes was part of the problem and that it wouldn\'t hurt her at all to breeze her but that it would probably be safer to wait but if we didn\'t breeze her, we were going to miss the race we had picked out.  I told him it wasn\'t even a question, wait.  I asked him when he wanted to breeze her and then I told him to wait 2 extra days from the time he suggested and breeze her then.  

Again, I don\'t have all the answers by any stretch, I just try to do (and suggest) what is right by the horses(s) both that I own and care about as a fan.

[jimbo66]

Covelj and Shanahan,

I know you both have the best intentions of the filly at heart. So, I apologize for the sarcasm. I just think that seeing our stars run is best for the sport (assuming they are healthy).  And just not a believer in JB\'s \"run fast/go sour\" theory.  I think they go sour when they are off form.  All horses, even great ones, go off form at some point.  

I am guessing we don\'t see her in the Belmont too.  Only because she bore out late, showing that she was tiring pretty good.  Asmussen will probably have to be really sure she is doing well to run her.  But she does get 3 weeks this time.  Who knows.

[miff]

I think the point that Jim correctly makes here is that the people with the expertise should make the call as to whether or not RA needs a rest.No one on this board is close to being qualified to determine RA\'s energy level right now.

Do you think for a minute that if RA is laying down tomorrow and off her feed that Asmussen/Jackson are going to the Belmont?


Mike

[Boscar Obarra]

With all respect to the filly,I\'m at least as  impressed with Mine That Birds huge effort.

  I had chalked up his Derby to the slop and the bias, but this was a tremendous effort today. With a better trip he\'d have gotten up.

 For such a little guy, a big run.

[slewzapper]

She drifted out right before the wire when Borel had put away the whip, turned to his right and gave MTB and Smith \"the finger\" - I wouldn\'t necessarily assume that meant the horse was spent, could have just as easily been the horse assuming the jock wanted her to go that direction by his change in balance.

On the other hand he was getting into her through the stretch until that point, unlike her other races where she did it on her own without pressure - and she took it out faster to boot. No questions about whether that visually represented an effort or not.

If she could hold enough form to win in three weeks how close would it compare to bagging the Triple Crown? That perception adds to the equation of whether to press on or not, similar (but not the same) as a colt winning Derby and Preakness.

Form notwithstanding, her running style should appreciate Belmont.

[Leamas57]

Agreed!

My two keys were Rachel and MTB. I saw them as the only predictible components. I got the tri three times, but would\'ve had the super if MTB is third or fourth.

The first three people I talked to who saw the race said MTB is sure to be Belmont fave after seeing that close.

[chrifron]

Two quick observations:

  1) Not enough praise has been given for Mine That Bird\'s great effort--closing from dead last at Pimlico on a dry track was impressive feat and validates his Derby IMO.  If Calvin rode him yesterday, we\'d be talking about a horse with a legit chance to sweep the Triple Crown.

  2) Jess Jackson--a few weeks back, someone posted on here that Jackson was rumored to be ill. In all honesty, based on his physical appearance on TV yesterday, he does not look the same as he did just 4 months ago on the Eclipse Awards. I was one who raised the issue of motive in purchasing RA and running her back so soon. I sincerely hope Mr. J and the filly remain well and are both \"running\" come BC time.

[P-Dub]

chrifron Wrote:
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> Two quick observations:
>
>   1) Not enough praise has been given for Mine
> That Bird\'s great effort--closing from dead last
> at Pimlico on a dry track was impressive feat and
> validates his Derby IMO.  If Calvin rode him
> yesterday, we\'d be talking about a horse with a
> legit chance to sweep the Triple Crown.
>
>

Agree that MTB ran a great race and more should be made of it.

Its no secret that once, maybe twice, I\'ve defended Mike Smith. OK, maybe 50 times.

But you\'ve got to be kidding if you think MTB would have won with Borel in the irons. Perhaps if he jumped the rail and landed on the turf course, he could have saved enough ground to win.

Look at the race again and tell me at which point any jockey could have saved enough ground to win on MTB??  The 1-3 paths were taken. He actually tried to go inside horses but realized there wasn\'t any room. Had to go around, cut inside of the only horse he could turning for home, and made a nice run down the stretch.

I\'m not going to get into yet another discussion of how Smith rides, but lets not start with the ridiculous notion MTB wins with Borel. Smith gave him a good ride, he was second best. Leave it alone.

[chrifron]

No need to get angry, P-Dub.....

I will clarify--in saying that MTB would have won with Borel, I\'m thinking he wouldn\'t have been riding RA. Smith rode fine-there was no inside path in the stretch, and he saved ground throughout.

Imagine for a minute that RA had never been sold--there still would have been an exciting buildup to the Preakness, and certainly a better race for betting (Hull and others?).

If MTB wins, we are looking at...... A unheralded $9500 gelding going where no horse has in 30 years....that could have been a great narrative for Racing.

[P-Dub]

chrifron Wrote:
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> No need to get angry, P-Dub.....
>
> I will clarify--in saying that MTB would have won
> with Borel, I\'m thinking he wouldn\'t have been
> riding RA. Smith rode fine-there was no inside
> path in the stretch, and he saved ground
> throughout.
>
> Imagine for a minute that RA had never been
> sold--there still would have been an exciting
> buildup to the Preakness, and certainly a better
> race for betting (Hull and others?).
>
> If MTB wins, we are looking at...... A unheralded
> $9500 gelding going where no horse has in 30
> years....that could have been a great narrative
> for Racing.


If my tone was angry, that wasn\'t the intent. Hope you weren\'t offended.

It was exasperation with this whole Borel thing.

He gave a great ride in the Derby, did it with Street Sense too. He\'s a fine rider. But you would think he\'s the second coming of Arcaro or Shoemaker with all of the talk around here.

Lost in all the RA hoopla (well deserved, I might add), is the tremendous race MTB ran. Hard not to root for him in future races.

[sekrah]

slewzapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> She drifted out right before the wire when Borel
> had put away the whip, turned to his right and
> gave MTB and Smith \"the finger\" - I wouldn\'t
> necessarily assume that meant the horse was spent,
> could have just as easily been the horse assuming
> the jock wanted her to go that direction by his
> change in balance.

Borel said when he hit her, she gave nothing.  She was done.

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
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>
>
> Borel said when he hit her, she gave nothing.  She
> was done.

  Where did you see that??  I can\'t imagine Borel saying anything like that.