Happy and relieved - payouts?

[magicnight]

Not sure Calvin said she was \"done\", but in the (Donna Barton) on-track interview Calvin noted that he had never hit her before, and that when he gave her a couple of taps when they straightened out she did not respond with more. My take? She ran the front runners into the ground and got home on guts.

[Leamas57]

I watched the overhead and firmly believe that a clean trip wins it for MTB. Could Borel have done that? --We\'ll never know...

The rail opened one second after Smith moved, but you can\'t assume the horse would have been in the exact same place and time as under Smith\'s ride.

Calvin brought two Derby winners through bigger fields with clean trips. I watched the overhead replay and say good chance that length was easliy made up with a cleaner trip. I also believe that under CB it would have been either a photo or win for MTB.

[slewzapper]

I watched the overhead, too.

Lukas\' horse moved as MTB did and kept him wide. Forced him into a path where he had to check off of a decelerating POTN. The rail run wasn\'t there when it needed to be. If he waited later for it, he would have moved too late and had a good chance of eventually missing second. If Borel was on and did that, the comments would be he waited too long for his patented rail trip and it cost him. It happens to him often enough as well.

I watched the start. If BD had been scratched, or broke cleanly, or retained the shades, the filly doesn\'t get pushed on the front end in the 3-4 path all the way around and she wins by daylight.

I watched the overhead of the Derby. If the horses all don\'t bunch up toward the front end early, if they stayed inside on the second turn and through the stretch, Borel has no golden rail trip and doesn\'t win.

Do you honestly believe Borel gets trips like the Derby every time he drops to the tail of the field early?

It is what it is. Sometimes life is like a superhero comic book. Usually it\'s not.

[TGJB]

MTB won the Derby by more than 6 lengths. Yes it was another great Borel ground saving ride. But if he was 3w both turns he still would have won by 2+ lengths.

[miff]

Bailey on the rail in grass races:

\"when it opens,you\'re a hero, when it closes you\'re a bum\"

Amazing that Calvin Borel is now Arcaro,Shoemaker,Bailey,Angel all in one.Solid, ballsy rider but surely not the second coming.

Mike

[Leamas57]

All good points and well taken. Borel gets trapped often enough and had he been on the horse (that he knew better than Smith) he might have had to adapt to a different trip plan.

I realize that it all becomes hypothetical and you can\'t change selevtive aspects of the race. I am only speculating that Borel would have given the horse enough of a better chance to make it closer or make the difference. Since it\'s fun to talk about a big race, Borel rides MTB and then does RA get the good ride with a new jock less familiar with her?

[Dudley]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MTB won the Derby by more than 6 lengths. Yes it
> was another great Borel ground saving ride. But if
> he was 3w both turns he still would have won by 2+
> lengths.


Noteworthy however, imo, you\'re assuming here that the track was as friendly in the 3W path as the rail was that Derby day. I don\'t think that was the case. I\'ve watched the race several times and those inside were on a \'paved highway\' compared to those off the rail running on \'beach sand\'. Just imo, I could be mistaken.

[P-Dub]

Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I watched the overhead and firmly believe that a
> clean trip wins it for MTB. Could Borel have done
> that? --We\'ll never know...

Not again. I firmly believe that all of you that think Borel wins on MTB are nuts.

>
> The rail opened one second after Smith moved, but
> you can\'t assume the horse would have been in the
> exact same place and time as under Smith\'s ride.

No you can\'t. And you also can\'t assume that Borel would have been in the spot to go through an alleged openiong.  If in fact there was one.

>
> Calvin brought two Derby winners through bigger
> fields with clean trips. I watched the overhead
> replay and say good chance that length was easliy
> made up with a cleaner trip. I also believe that
> under CB it would have been either a photo or win
> for MTB.

You probably believe Santa still comes down the chimney. You people are something else.

Borel scrapes the rail in America\'s biggest race, and all of a sudden he\'s super jockey. Able to leap 3 horses with a single bound.  Able to navigate his way to the finish line first regardless of what stands in his way.

Geez, you would think the guy wins at a 75% clip with all of this talk. He gave MTB a great ride in the KD.  We get it. We all do.

So,, for the rest of eternity,  are we going to look at every 2nd place finisher and wonder......\"Gee, what if Borel had ridden the horse?? He would have made up x number of lengths/inches to win.\"

ENOUGH with the Calvin hyperbole machine.

The friggin horse would have finished second no matter what.  He ran great,  its a fantastic story.

Can you just leave it alone already??

[Leamas57]

I can leave it alone, and it is over and done, but talking about historic races is part of racing. If Ted Williams hadn\'t gone into the service, would he have hit 700 homers without an asterix?  You would say who cares?

I think jockeys make as much as 4 lengths difference every day in racing because I win and lose as a result of their decisions. I believe there were two lengths potential differnce and that it\'s worth the discussion in the wake of such a story.

Santa Claus could have come down the chimney if he had gone to Jenny Craig and even Scrooge came to believe in the spirit of Christmas, getting over HIS humbug.

[HP]

Dudley, the \"paved highway\" you refer to must have been less than one lane wide if MTB was the only one who could really benefit from it.  I guess those horses MTB blew by that were fairly close to the \"highway\" you saw (and at least two of them would have been described as in the ONE path), they must have been on the \"shoulder\" of that very narrow paved road.  Plus he did have to come out a bit (briefly) to the two path at one point in the stretch and it didn\'t put any dent in his momentum whatsoever.  

I think MTB is simply the kind of small-ish agile horse who can skip over the mud and do well.  I don\'t see how you could make this observation about a \"paved highway\" based on what you are seeing on TV...  I don\'t think this accounts for the win.  It was just a very good trip and he picked the right day to pop his top!  

As for the others that think a better trip would\'ve gotten MTB the win...in my view...the Preakness was just the perfect race for RA.  It was JUST the right distance for her...another hundred or so yards (the Derby distance) and she would have been third.  Have to give Borel some credit for knowing his horse and how much gas she had in the tank.  I think Smith did an okay job (not great) and I don\'t see how anyone else would have won that day.  Whatever he would have gained by going inside he might have lost in not getting his horse a clear run (which he definitely had).  

HP

[covelj70]

note though that MTB never got by RA in the gallop out so I am not sure about the finishing 3rd in a longer race part.

[Leamas57]

Smith shut him down right on the wire. He lost by one length almost exactly and had lots of momentum. NBC sports has a number of cams you can watch.

[covelj70]

Borel shut RA down right before the wire as well and MTB still didn\'t get passed.  We will never know but I don\'t think we can say for sure that MTB would have gotten past.  Maybe he would have but it\'s not a definite.  Doesn\'t really matter anyway but always interesting to speculate.

Bigger point is that everyone will assume that with more distance, MTB would have won the race and, as MJ pointed out, the one move closers often don\'t close as well with added distance which will only add to the intrigue of the Belmont if they both run.

[nhorizon]

Seems to me Smith never finds an inside path.  Someone said it opened one second too late.  I don\'t believe Smith likes the rail anymore.

[HP]

Really depends on the pace.  It\'s like a rubberband.  If the rubberband gets stretched enough (the pace is HOT), the horses in the back look like they came out of a slingshot.  If the rubberband doesn\'t get pulled back enough...no good.  In the Preakness there was pace to run at.  If they go slow early in the Belmont they can run around twice and still chase a loose frontrunner.  

I felt sure watching the race that if it was another 100 yards the two boys would have gone by - but I can\'t say 1,000%.  To me it looked like she was saying \"Guys, I\'m just glad this is a mile AND THREE SIXTEENTHS!\"  Of course this can be deceptive, but I thought I saw RA\'s lips move.  

HP