Please god let them put this filly away for 3 months

[sighthound]

TonyP. Wrote:
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> If RA skips the Belmont does Calvin get the mount
> back on MTB?

No.  They have already publically said that although Borel was the first jock to follow the trainers instructions, Smith gave a great ride, they were thrilled with the way he took MTB outside when the rail trip was blocked, and Smith has the Belmont ride on MTB as he rode the horse exactly as instructed.

[covelj70]

Amen to Charitable Man winning the Belmont.  That\'s something we can all agree on!

[JR]

Please

[Funny Cide]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Miff and Jimbo-- So let\'s see...
>
> Last year, when Rachel had run 5 times and not won
> a stake, I recommended her purchase to four
> clients, telling them that she was as good already
> as Stardom Bound, and the favorite to win the
> Kentucky Oaks.

She lost a G3 by a short margin at that point and had won 2 of her 4 starts.  Spotting potential talent there wasn\'t exactly rocket science.  What amuses me about agents is that they all tout their success stories but we never hear of all the horses they recommended who bombed.  Percentages and ROI are the two stats we need to see to properly ascertain how well an agent does, and I\'ve never seen an agent who lists either.  
 
> Before the Preakness, when some were scoffing at
> bounce theory, and others were predicting she
> would bounce to the sky (and wondering why I did
> not also), I predicted the most likely eventuality
> was a backward move of a few points that would
> make her about 50/50 to win. I haven\'t done the
> figure, but judging from who was where at the wire
> (including Lukas\' horse), I would say I nailed it,
> and sure enough, she won, but not by a lot.

You nailed it along with me and 700,000 others.  You scoffed when I told someone to believe their eyes, that we could all see that the Oaks didn\'t take so much out of her that she wouldn\'t be up to the task 2 weeks later.  You hedge your bets, saying here\'s why she might win and here\'s why she might not, so then you can claim you nailed it.  
 
> So you figure the right idea this time is to
> dismiss my comments about her future. Good
> thinking. And when something goes wrong with her
> before or after her next race-- and it will-- we
> will hear the words \"Kool-Aid\" again. Her best
> chance to avoid injury is either a) to pass the
> Belmont and not run again until late July or
> August, or b) protect herself in it if she goes,
> like Big Brown did. If she makes it to the gate
> and runs hard to the wire, you won\'t be seeing her
> again for quite a while.

She\'s run 4 times in about 9 weeks, and the last win was a tough effort.  Again, it doesn\'t take a rocket scientist to think she would probably benefit from a break right now or that if she keeps running every 2-3 weeks at this level, that it will take its toll.

[TGJB]

Sight-- that\'s the point, all right. They jumped to synthetics before attempting to fix the dirt tracks. The studies on dirt tracks lumped all the tracks together, which was misleading.

[TGJB]

FC-- Okay, pal.

1-- I\'m not an agent. Agents send me ten times as many horses (at least) as I recommend to my clients.

2-- We used to have a complete history up in the horseman\'s section of the site for a 5 year history of EVERY horse bought on our recommendation, what it was bought for, what it earned, final disposition (resale, retirement, etc.). We stopped doing it because a) it was a pain in the ass to keep updating all that data, and b) I have clients (one in particular) who does not like that info being made public for his horses. Eventually it became outdated and we took it down. But I am not aware of anyone else, ever, who has done that publicly. Prestonwood once did a comprehensive study of my work for them-- 23 horses bought, 13 won stakes, average price for the 23 was $125k. Don\'t remember the ROI, but it was unbelievable.

I know this doesn\'t cover what you want, but I\'m responsible for the purchase of 78 horses that have gone on to win stakes for our clients, including several real biggies (Victory Gallop, Da Hoss, Rachel) and several other major horses that have become stallions (Distorted Humor, Even The Score, Student Council, Claramount, Evening Kris). The only one who may have a claim to have done anything similar for his clients is another guy who posts on this board.

3-- At the point I recommended Rachel I didn\'t say she had \"potential\". I told four clients that SHE WAS AS GOOD AS THE 2YO CHAMPION ALREADY, AND WAS THE MOST LIKELY FILLY IN THE COUNTRY TO WIN THE ASHLAND AND THE OAKS. I have emails and witnesses to prove it. And the clients will tell you I don\'t say things like that-- it was a first.

4-- I didn\'t make the same prediction 700,000 others did. I predicted she would run significantly worse than in the Oaks because it was a knock-out effort (I seem to recall you saying it was not), but that she had a very good chance to win anyway.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- it\'s not meant as a cheap shot. It\'s meant to show that the supposed non-effort made no difference in assessing his pattern and the effects of it-- he still went bad.

I am torn on the question of RA running in the Belmont. On the one hand, she\'s my baby, and I don\'t want anything to happen to her. On the other, this is setting up to be one of the best betting races in history, if the Preakness figures come out the way I think they will.

By the way, just eyeballing it, I would be pretty surprised if Andy doesn\'t change that figure.

[jimbo66]

Best betting races his history!!  Hmmm.....

Shoot, I was going to try and have a 1 to 2 week \"freshening\" of my own, before the Belmont, so I can hit a \"new top\" betting on Belmont day.  But now I am intrigued.  Gonna need blinkers added to keep my focus on work the next couple weeks.....

[TGJB]

I\'m actually going to take a rest BECAUSE it looks like a great betting day.

But don\'t let that stop all you guys from buying data...

[JimP]

\"setting up to be one of the best betting races in history\"

How do you go about concluding that without knowing who else will be running? Are you making some assumptions about that? If so, which ones are you assuming will show up for the Belmont that you would look on favorably?

[TGJB]

I\'m basing who will run on printed reports, and I\'ll save my horse-specific comments for the data we sell.

But to your larger point, I\'ve said this before-- I don\'t bet horses, I bet races (see the betting guidelines in the Archive section). If RA goes, I start out with the opinion that she\'s going to run much worse than the public thinks she will, at a short price-- she will be on 90% or so of the tri tickets. This is similar to the situation with BB last year, when I took a similar strong position, right here, and was right-- but didn\'t use the winner, so I came up empty.

That\'s not say this kind of position always works out, just in terms of the favorite running poorly, let alone getting the rest of the race right. It worked with Barbaro and some others, didn\'t work with Smarty in the Preakness or BB in the Derby (though my position was not nearly as strong as later, and he wasn\'t nearly as short). But the point is that if you are right half the time in predicting an \"X\" for an odds-on horse you will make a lot of  money in the long run because all the exotics without him (or her) are tremendously overlaid.

[JimP]

Re \"printed reports\". I\'m sure you have access to information that most of the rest of us don\'t have. From my vantage I don\'t have any sense for how the Belmont field will shape up. Will it be a big field? Which new shooters will show up? Which repeaters will be coming in that are just as likely to bounce as RA? Etc. I understand your point about the favorite bouncing, but I can\'t say with any assurance at this point whether that will present a great betting opportunity or not. You seem to have already reached that conclusion so you obviously feel more confident about the answers to those questions than I do. I\'m happy when I can detect a great betting opportunity with 5 minutes to post time. Three weeks is outside my limit. However, if someone will please point me to those printed reports about the prospective Belmont field, I would be interested in starting the process.

[TGJB]

By printed reports I mean DRF, Bloodhorse, etc. Check out their websites.

[mjellish]

Just being able to bet against RA into those gigantic pools is where the opportunity lies.  We\'ll see how she trains and acts leading up to the Belmont.  

MTB will most likely be 2nd choice, and this is a mile and half race.  Most people will conclude that his closing running style will be helped by the extra ground.  Fact is the opposite is usually true in ultra-long races.  One run closers often lose their punch at longer distances.

The Belmont is usually won by a horse with tactical speed.  The key is finding someone that can relax long enough to get the distance.

So if the filly goes, and MTB goes, you have very vulnerable first and second choice horses, and multi-million dollar pools to bet into.

I don\'t need to know who else is running to know that I will be all-in.

[trackjohn]

Agree with you and JB 100%...If both MTB and RA are in the race this is EXACTLY the type of wagering opportunity that ANY \'fig handicapper\' (particularly one who uses TG) looks to crush...how much tri $$$ will include both MTB and RA...85-90% ??...Thats why they call it pari-mutual wagering!

John