Betting Race Of The Century/

[miff]

Maybe the card, but the Race? Maybe a few more will enter.

Rachel Alexanra(on the fence)

Mine That Bird

Luv Gov

Flying Private

Chocolate Candy

Dunkirk

Summer Bird

Charitable Man(on the fence)

Miners Escape(posssible)

[jimbo66]

Mike,

Where did you read that Charitable Man was only \"on the fence\"?  I thought he was in.

[Michael D.]

I\'ll be shocked if RA is in that Bel Stks starting gate.

Any word on QR? Definitely out?

[TGJB]

I said, if the filly goes.

[covelj70]

Mr. Warren who owns Charitable Man is a friend of a friend and he told my friend this weekend that they are running.  Completely second hand but figured I would pass along.

Quality Road definitely out.

[miff]

Jim,


Think I saw it in the Bloodhorse or someplace. I would think they will go if the horse is ok. Kiaran has been high on this horse from before his 3yr old debut.Fast horse but gigantic set up trip sitting off the blinkered runaway Hello Broadway in last, no?


JB,

Of course you mean as a betting opportunity against RA.Think the field needs a couple more entries, 4 slugs already entered.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Mike,

You can you call it a perfect trip, but he is the kind of horse, when right, that will always get a nice trip.  He has tractable speed.  He broke well in the peter pan, when Hello Broadway went nuts, Garcia took hold, and he rated very well off the pace.  Once he took over the lead, the closers came, but Imperial Council was not making up any ground at all in the end IMO.  

I view it as a perfect Belmont STakes prep.  If Rachel runs, he can sit off her and let her cut the fractions.  Garcia can give him an Empire Maker/Funny Cide type ride.   If she doesn\'t run, Charitable Man can run them into the ground, from the front.

The sire won this race, the jockey won it last year and Kiaran is one of the best IMO.  He had the TG \"3\" last year, if he got to around the \"0\" last time, which is a guess, he has at least a good chance of pairing it in the Belmont, which with his tactical speed enabling him to get a trip,  is probably enough to win.  Dunkirk can run back to his \"0\", but I would bet on CM running it before I would bet on him doing it.  MTB probably backed up a little bit in the Preakness, which will make him an underlay in the Belmont.  Rachel, who knows.

[miff]

Jim,

I agree that CM has the most upside going into this race, never saw his last TG fig but it looked 1-ish off Beyer.CM freshest horse in there with the preferred Belmont running style.

Dunkirk was still underwhealming as of a week or so ago,and may still be knocked out from the Florida gut wrencher against Quality Road(shame he\'s out,his feet  taking more time than they thought and was in dreaded bar shoe recently)

Rachel is the obvious key, my guess is 70-30 she\'s a no go.Gary Stevens remarked that the filly was not tired after the race. Surprised me, I had her all in on her belly in a much better than it looked performance.A friend of Ed Fountaine (NY Post) told me that Borel told Fountaine that RA was tired late, had not heard that before.

She\'s worth an extra 25k in attendance and I hope she recoups and runs.Asmussen no dope, so I\'ll respect her more if she goes, even off the gut wrencher on Sat.


Mike

[David G Patent]

FWIW I will bet that the RA camp ultimately decides to run her as long as she does not show any severe outward signs of trouble.

The public/media will demand it and horsemen and owners usually find a way to rationalize running horses in these kinds of spots, especially if it can make her the true front-runner for HOTY.

Belmont Park should offer to split the extra gate 50-50 with JJ as an incentive.  Should be work at least $600k to the owner.

[Silver Charm]

David what do they give back to the Filly?

Her broken spirit........

[David G Patent]

I am not saying that I agree with the decision, if it goes that way, just predicting what they will do.  She should get a break until August IMHO.

[big18741]

Two concerns with Charitable Man,otherwise lots to like about him.

1)  He comes in with only four races in his career and the BG was a non-effort.

2)  He has to pick up 10 lbs off his Peter Pan win.

Is there enough foundation there to expect a winning effort stretching another 3f\'s ?

Dunkirk and Summer Bird in the same boat with # of starts.

[Leamas57]

I can almost say already that my ticket will be \"Bird on the Wire.\"  --I just don\'t know which one. My super key will feature MTBird and Summer Bird. CM carrying 10 more and everyone else either backpeddling or not bred for 12 furlongs.

Two Birds in the hand will be worth one bushel!

Bill

[Silver Charm]

David I just have a hard time reading all of these posts about her being served up as some sort of sacraficial gambling lamb.

If people love the sport this talk should be going the other way.

If she runs we will not watch and wager......

The last time somebody was lynched or hanged I didn\'t want to be there. Maybe you guys betting the rope will work but not me.......

[Rick B.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If people love the sport this talk should be going
> the other way.

With all due respect, SC: sez you.

I love the sport plenty, but I have no control over whether a horse runs or not, and oddly enough, the owners of these fine animals never call me and ask what I think they should do.

So the question becomes: is it morally repugnant to bet against a horse that you think can\'t win a race -- for whatever reason (too slow, overraced, sore)?

I don\'t pretend to know your answer to this, but I will say that I don\'t enter the horses to race. I just bet on them.