Preakness thoughts

[congaree1]

Jerry in your analysis, you said Big Drama is a very fast horse. He ran one fast race at 7/8 at Gulfstream. All his route racing is much slower. He was a toss for me, not only because I think he is a sprinter, but because he only had 1 race and it was a sprint. You also said Rachel


(with both hands against the best 3yo filly that ever live)

When you said this were you drinking?

[TGJB]

Yep, sorry. I\'ll bet with one hand, the other will be holding a drink.

[jimbo66]

Congaree,

It is all about the odds.  If you don\'t get that, then you shouldn\'t be putting your dollars into the pari-mutuel pools.

At 2-1, Big Drama would be untested at a route of ground and a \"one figure\" horse that had only one race that would make him a contender.

At 10-1, Big Drama was the 2nd fastest horse in the race, ran as fast in routes at 2 as he did at sprints, so if he could repeat his sprint race at Gulfstream as a 3 year old and save ground from the rail, on the lead, he had a \"puncher\'s chance\" of winning.

I didn\'t like him either, but there is nothing wrong with betting him at 10-1.

[congaree1]

Jimbo, I do get it.. Big Drama could have been 1000-1 and I still wouldn\'t have used him.. The long layoff and the lack of class IMO, made him a complete toss for me.. I am more of a conventional handicapper. Although I use speed figures I am a big believer in class and actually handicapping the race, rather than being dependent on single numbers...

[MonmouthGuy]

Didn\'t you key Take the Points?

[jimbo66]

Congaree,

If you toss horses, regardless of price, I am happy to have you in the parimutuel pools....  Sorry, if that sounds bad.

Price, % chance to win and associated potential ROI are what this game is all about.

You must be \"old school\" Congaree.  Some of my favorite moments each year are the twice a year I go to the track with my old man, on Derby day and Breeders Cup day, and he explains to me that he will ALWAYS bet the most likely winner of the race, regardless of price, because he is the most likely winner.  And I try to explain that taking 2-1 on a horse who has a 20% chance of winning, even if he is the most likely winner, is a bad bet..........

[congaree1]

I was only tossing this particular horse.

[congaree1]

My play was 13,11/2,3.9

I thought the filly was a standout, as I bet her to win.