Meanwhile, back on the racetrack

[covelj70]

we interrupt this regularly scheduled discussion of chicken trainers and drug abuses to make everyone aware that there\'s a really important race coming up in 10 days (I am in Milan right now for work where it\'s already Thursday so I am cheating)

Let\'s try to start figuring out who\'s going to run their race next Sat.

I think when everyone sees Charitable Man\'s sheet, we are all pretty much going to agree that he\'s the one to beat and I have a big time bias wanting him to win so I won\'t go on too much about why he\'s the one to beat for fear of letting my emotions get in the way of analysis but:

1) he\'s really fast
2) he\'s got an excellent 2 year old foundation
3) he blew through his 2 year old top last out which is a great sign of health
4) he\'s bred to get the distance being by the son of a Belmont winner
5) he loves the track already being 2 for 2 over the big Sandy
6) he doesn\'t have to ship

is that enough?  we aren\'t going to get any kind of price on him as what I am saying will be pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the pp\'s so the big question is who else might run their race to include in the vertical exotics.  Note credit to Jimbo who I conferred with on Charitable Man for separate reasons, Jimbo, I don\'t want to steal all of the credit here.

let\'s start with who won\'t run their race

I am assuming that Rachael is out as that\'s the body language that Jackson is sending off

in my mind, that leaves Mine that Bird, Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy as horses that will take alot of money in the exotics and I don\'t like any of them.

Mine that Bird is up against what every other 3 year old who runs in all three triple crown races has to deal with, 3 races in 5 weeks and he\'s a classic 0,2,x pattern on the sheets (as RA would be as well obviously)  While many will argue that the extra distance will allow him to get there, as MJ accurately pointed out last week, the further they go, the less kick they have (they being the deep closer).  He\'s a toss for me

For Choc Candy, we have the 2nd time off the synthetic bounce as a reason to toss him (see Pioneer of the Nile) and he\'s not that fast anyway.  He was the wise guy horse (along with Friesan Fire) for the Derby so he will certainly take alot of money, especially given that he shipped to Belmont right away and was \"pointed for this race\"

For Dunkirk, I just don\'t think he wants to go that far and, with Friesan Fire being the latest in a long line of examples, when they bounce hard, they don\'t usually come back all the way to the top right away.  He could be great later on if he stays together (always a risk with the Unbridled Song\'s of course) but I don\'t think he will be on the board in the Belmont.

I know that leaves us with a bunch of nags picking up the pieces but hey, the Belmont winner 2 out of the last 3 years was eligible for nx2\'s so a nag hitting the board isn\'t at all unusual in this race.  

I am thinking a Charitable Man/nags/nags triple and super part wheel.

Thoughts?

[TGJB]

I have to believe I could find something better to do in Milan at night.

[covelj70]

lol

trust me, this is like the night after the Derby for me, lots of ideas running through my head, much better off staying parked in my room doing video conferences with my wife and kids on ichat in between postings.

[sighthound]

I was kind of thinking, \" a Charitable Man/nags/nags triple and super part wheel.\" was one of the most interesting betting plans I\'ve seen

[covelj70]

Sight,

It\'s Jimbo\'s job on this board to criticize my wagering strategies, you are honing in on his turf

seriously though, when these ridiculous bombs hit the board, there\'s no way to cap it.

I hated the top 7 choices in the derby which was right but I tore up every ticket because something that was not analyzeable (sp?) happened.  Same with tossing big brown last year.

It will be the ones that aren\'t trying to win the race that wind up saving energy early and passing those that did try to win the race that will hit the board and there\'s really no way to predict which of the nags will take that stance ahead of time so I think taking the nags and tossing the horses who will try to win but that I don\'t think will run their race.

Should only be 4 or 5 of them so Jimbo can\'t yell at me too much for playing 20 combos in the triple, or maybe he will?

[miff]

Cov,

Unfortunately, just about everyone in NY likes CM and Dunkirk and kinda dislikes MTB.Kiaran telling anyone who will listen how well CM is doing as of today.Think you\'re gonna need a slow rat in the number to get a decent payoff.


Mike

[sighthound]

I think calling a nag, a nag, is far better than, \"I know he\'s never run a TG less than 15, but if his grandsirs allowance win ability comes through the ped, and the trainer wears his lucky tie, there\'s a chance he\'ll spice up the exotics\".

[jimbo66]

Covelj/Jim,

You are heading in the right direction with a Charitable Man/nag/nag trifecta.  Whether it hits or not, you are light years ahead of your last two bets on this board.  (the five favorites with Rachel in the doubles and the \"sealing up the race\" by playing both Zenyatta and Life is Sweet.  At least you actually have a chance to win money by playing the CM/Nag/Nag triple.

Unfortunately for me, I see two other horses that you are throwing out, running well.  Dunkirk paired up 0\'s heading into the Derby and then threw up a clunker.  Pletcher backed off of him, now gives him 5 weeks to the Belmont.  Why won\'t he run back to his zero?  He still only has a few races under his belt and has much more upside than several of the others in here.  

Chocolate Candy is a trickier read for me.  My theory heading into the Derby was that POTN would not move up on dirt, based on his breeding and that Chocolate Candy would move up on dirt, based on his breeding.  Then, I was overly impressed by POTN\'s race in the Derby and decided I was wrong and he was a solid play in the Preakness.  Well, we all know how that worked out.  The key thing I overlooked was that the Derby was a wet track.  POTN ran well over it, the same way he trained over it two weeks before the derby.  Chocolate Candy trained poorly over the wet track, then his workouts sharpened the week before the derby when the track got dry.  He didn\'t run that well in the Derby, but assuming he gets a dry track in the Belmont, I am looking for the forward move ala Papa Clem,first time dry track in the Arkansas Derby.  

I think the race is a simple triple key of Charitable Man over Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk.  I like the same bet if Rachel runs, but I will get 5 times the payoff if she runs.  

Mike,

The win pool will have Mine that Bird a solid favorite if Rachel doesn\'t run, no matter what Kiaran says.  Don\'t forget there is a ton of tourist money in the win pool for these triple crown events.  Nobody will be more than 30-1 no matter how bad they look.  Without Rachel, I expect to get a fair 3-1 on CM.  With Rachel, a whole different ballgame and suddenly there is a ton of value.

[MonmouthGuy]

Good analysis as always, with a question.

I was thinking that Summer Bird may be the horse to add the kick to the exotics.

His last two races are faster than anything Chocolate Candy has ever run and he gets the same 5 weeks that Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy get.

Deep closers don\'t generally win the Belmont, but if he runs back to his top or runs his Derby number again, he is logical contender to finish 2nd or 3rd.  He seemed to be one of the few still running at the end of the Kentucky Derby.  He closed 4 1/2 lengths on CC in the stretch and missed him by a head, running past him on the gallup out.  I don\'t see much to seperate the two horses.

He also gets a positive jockey switch to Talamo, although Prado has been working him. EDIT *Kent D. gets the call*

And unlike Chocolate Candy, I don\'t have to guess how he will handle a fast dirt track based on works because of his Arkansas Derby.  This at potentially 2-3 times the odds.

Would be interested in your thoughts on the \"other\" bird.

[BitPlayer]

covelj70 -

Not to pick on you, but I keep seeing references to 0-2-X like it\'s from the TG bible.  Yet I haven\'t seen any data that suggests that a Top-Off pattern is particularly likely to lead to an X.  The ThoroPattern on Mine That Bird\'s sheet included in the Preakness card results says his pattern (Top-Top-Off) produces an X 30% of the time.  Rachel\'s pattern (Pair-Top-Off) yields an X only 25% of the time.  According to the stats that are included in the ROTW every week (admittedly a bit dated), the overall frequency of X\'s is 37%.

I understand that the probability of an X has to be evaluated in the context of the odds on a runner, but Mine That Bird shouldn\'t be that short on Belmont Day.

I also understand the theory that big figures hurt and that an off race may indicate that a big effort has started to take a toll, but that theory seems to me to apply more to Rachel than to Mine That Bird.  MTB has never gotten to the magic negative 1 threshold.

Now that I\'ve got that out of my system, I want to add how much I\'ve enjoyed the posts from you and Jimbo this spring.  Best of luck with your wagers.

[congaree1]

I think Flying Private wants 1 1/2. Lucas has dominated this race in the past and this horse IMO gives him a shot. I hope Rachel runs, because I think she might be toast.

[big18741]

Chocolate Candy did work quick on fast dirt at Churchill.

Still,he might just be a horse in need of a break.He\'s been at it since last July.He shows some five and six week gaps in his racing,but he\'s been in training straight thru.Finished slow in all of the Belmont works if you look at the splits.Will be trying to beat him off the board.

Miner\'s Escape might be your underneath slow rat that fits the pace/distance situation.He can grind around on these slower fractions sitting close.Mineshaft out of a Broad Brush mare should keep going.Don\'t like the other Zito on breeding(Lion Heart/Copelan) and that one figures to be the shorter price.

[covelj70]

Bit,

thanks alot

I think you hit on it when you highlighted the big efforts part of the post.

When they react a little the first time after a big number, if they come back quick again, they react alot the next time more often than not.

The thoro pattern is helpful but must be viewed in context and I don\'t really use it in my capping.

great luck, should be a fun week leading up to the race.

[MonmouthGuy]

So there you have it covelj.

We just gave you your 3 Nags!

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

How come I am the one that cashed on the preakness and you are the one doing all of the criticizing

obviously just joking...good thoughts on Choc Candy about the wet vs fast track.  I know that Jerry H. likes him alot.

I don\'t care for Dunkirk at all as I don\'t think he wants any part of 1 1/2 miles but I have been wrong before.