Meanwhile, back on the racetrack

[Dudley]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I don\'t care for Dunkirk at all as I don\'t think
> he wants any part of 1 1/2 miles but I have been
> wrong before.

I don\'t think Dunkirk wants any part of top class company- he\'s a temperamental \'wussy\' sort, imo. Another Pletcher \'phenom\'he reminds me of, is the much-ballyhooed Bandini, whom I also \'hated\'. I too have been wrong before.

[jimbo66]

Monmouth Guy,

I have not seen Summer Bird\'s sheet.  But I do know a pretty good handicapper who has seen the sheet and thinks he is live.  At 2 to 3 times the price of Chocolate Candy, you are right, he is the better price play.

I am still struggling with converting the synthetic figures to dirt figures and making \"adjustments\" in my head.  We have discussed the compression of those figures before.  Does that mean that Chocolate Candy is faster on dirt than his synthetic figures suggest?  Maybe, maybe not.  But if Rachel skips the race, the value proposition of using Charitable Man over Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy is not too hot, so I will need a \"summer bird\" type longshot in there.  I have to see his sheet next Wednesday when TGJB puts up the sheets.  But everything you say makes sense.

[jimbo66]

Covelj/Jim,

You are right, you certainly cashed on the Preakness.  And I will tell you what, based on some of your bets, I make you a 1-5 favorite to cash a higher percentage of tickets than I do.  Without a doubt!! My guess is though, that as you use TG figures for longer, you will change/adapt your betting style.  Using premium data to ferret out 3-5 and 2-1 type plays is not a good value proposition.  I will plagiarize Julian from one of the Saratoga Thorograph seminars a couple years back.  He says \"I am not smart enough to play favorites.  I need a MUCH bigger margin of error, because I am wrong too often, in a tough tough game\".  Now, Julian is probably an extreme as he won\'t get out of his chair for less than 30-1, but you get the drift.  

I think a lot of folks are coming to judgment too soon on Dunkirk getting the distance.  He ran into a TOP CLASS colt in Quality Road in that Florida Derby, one who would have dusted the Derby field IMO.  He made a huge move on a somewhat speed favoring trip, then watched as Quality Road \"re-broke\" in the stretch.  I don\'t think the 1 1/8 beat him that day.  I think he ran into a faster horse.  Unless Rachel runs, there are no Quality Roads in the Belmont.  Nobody even remotely close IMO.  Not sure what happened to Dunkirk in the Derby other than getting squeezed at the start, but he ran so bad I am inclinded to just call it an \"x\" and move on.  I don\'t know how I can point to the Derby as a sign of his distance limitations.  You can point to the Derby and say he is \"off form\" if you like, but I don\'t think it is a sign of distance limitations.  Now he gets 5 weeks into the Belmont and for all Pletcher\'s failures in the Derby he did get a filly to beat Curlin in the Belmont off the same 5 weeks rest.  And the Belmont is frankly a race that Curlin should have run well in, as it plays to the horses that can cruise and gallup at high speeds and then stay on.  Dunkirk, with his paired \"0\'s\" has two figures in the range of Charitable Man\'s one figure top.  Granted, I think Charitable Man can run a new top and Dunkirk is more likely to pair, but nonetheless it is hard to have a real strong opinion on CM and be negative on Dunkirk.  Yes, Mine that Bird has two figures that contend as well, but is on his 3rd race in 5 weeks and I think his style is a negative for this Belmont.  Barring Rachel running, this figures to be a controlled pace, with MTB sitting quite a bit back, making his run.  I think CM controls that pace and spurts away at the top of the stretch, with Dunkirk being a bit more tactical than MTB and able to stay close enough to mount some kind of move.

Now, if Rachel runs, I might switch to Dunkirk on top, because Charitable Man will be the one to pressure Rachel and DUnkirk will get the better trip.

Not to mention what could be a great undercard on Belmont day, with an all stakes pick 6.

[Michael D.]

Char Man - looks strong. 3-1 off the dream trip last might be a bit of an underlay though.

Choc Candy - didn\'t figure to handle the wet-fast Derby surface. jump first dry dirt still possible. the numbers still say he\'s too slow however, so demand a decent price.

MTB - I\'ll play him to flatten out in his 3rd race in 5 weeks.

Dunk - has a few fast figures and better spacing from the two brutal Fla efforts. distance the concern.

SB - has a competitive figure, 5 weeks prep, and should get the distance.

RA - doubt she\'ll run.


Still have to see the sheets for the Zito and Lucas runners, but SB will be the likely key here at a price. Right on the fence with both Dunk and CC - think there\'s a decent chance one of the two will fire.

[MonmouthGuy]

Correction. Ice will go with Kent Desormeaux instead of Talamo on Summer Bird.

[TGJB]

The key thing in evaluating 0-2\'s, or any patterns, is how you view the top (0)-- whether it was progressive, or something that figures to have been a very big effort for the horse.

[covelj70]

So, I land in London this afternoon.

First thing I ask the driver is if my hotel is near a betting shop.  As luck would have it, the driver is a total degenerate who knows the exact location and hours of operation of every betting palor in London.  He supposedly drives Frankie Detori around....so he says.

Anyway, I rush through my hotel check in and run down to Landbrokes and William Hill to see if they are giving action yet on the Belmont hoping to lock in some better odds than the 3-1 we will get on Charitable Man next Sat.

Much to my dismay, they won\'t post the odds until early next week so I am out of luck.  After briefly contemplating taking 3-1 on a prop bet that Frankie Detori will win one of the english classics this year, I kept my wallet in my pants with the thought that Jimbo wouldn\'t approve of me taking such low odds on Flying Frankie

Gonna print out some TG Europe data in the hotel and see how this stuff works on this side of the pond

[magicnight]

Cov, Stevie Wonder could find a betting shop in London. You should make it down to Goodwood if you have the chance (racing tomorrow and saturday). I hear it\'s a great racetrack.

[Leamas57]

MG:

I know you didn\'t ask for my thoughts, but I made a post about a \"bird on the wire\" where I posit the two Birdstone progeny in the super. Nice to see you on Summer Bird, too, though I will start to worry if too many agree...

Bill

[big18741]

Probably gonna play both Charitable Man and Summer Bird to pair or better.CM with a huge tactical edge.

MTB went from 50-1 to 6-1 and now probably even money in his 3rd race in 35 days.He doesn\'t have to like the surface or the added distance.Certainly the pace won\'t be to his advantage.Hoping he backs up at least a couple of points on Saturday.

Dunkirk could fire,probably can\'t be tossed despite his low odds.

Interested to see Miner\'s Escape sheet.Zito has to be respected at this trip.Too many of his slow rats have board crashed in this race before.Thinking he can be played to improve a couple points-bred on top to get the trip.Don\'t like his other horse on distance.Sounds like Nowhere to Hide will pass.

Da Tara and Andromedas Hero moved up in the Belmont off slower pairs.Birdstone jumped 3 pts off an ugly pattern.Ap Valentine moved up up a couple into the exacta.

[jumpnthefire]

what are the odds going to be on summer bird anybody care to guess(bodog has futures up for the race)