Question for everyone on Rachael

[covelj70]

Rachael\'s two breezes post the Preakness have been painfully slow compared to what she was doing leading up the Oaks.  

I know that Steve A doesn\'t typically work his horses too fast in the AM but what strikes me about this is that no one could hold her back in the mornings leading up to the Oaks.  It wasn\'t like the jockeys were asking her, she was just pulling them along that fast

So,

1) she either needs alot more time off than they are planning for her (if she is still running in the Mother Goose), or

2) Steve A is teaching her to relax in the mornings and if that translates into a race, imagine how scary she would be if she could sit back a bit off the pace and then unleash her move.  Don\'t know that there\'s a colt in training who could beat her if she learns to do that.

Which one do we think it is?

[spa]

Steve has had her long enough to screw her up..........unquote.

[richiebee]

With all due respect, Covel, I vote for #3, \"Good God, who cares, enough
already\".

RA will race maybe 3 more times in her career. Unless she takes on males in the
BC, she will not be available at odds of greater than 6/5. (Yes she would be
favored in the Haskell or Travers).

Owner Jackson likes the limelight as much as a certain elected official who
will go unnamed. I mean come on man, 4 or 5 paragraphs on why RA isn\'t going to
run in the Belmont? You could have just said \"Our filly is tired. She needs
some R&R. [Here add ownertrainerspeak like \"She will tell us when she\'s ready to
run.\"]\"

I mean if Jackson\'s statement was one paragraph longer,he would have had to
mention the Darley Arabian, The Byerly (sp)Turk and the Godolphin Barb.

I would rather discuss something which may present a more lucrative result, such
as where will Alsy Goldberg go with his NY Bred turf runner by Giant\'s Causeway
who came back from a layoff in such impressive fashion on Memorial Day?

[covelj70]

sad state of affairs when it\'s not interesting to talk about what may be (obviously very debatable) the greateast filly of all time.  

I very much disagree, I think issue of whether she learns to relax in her races is very relevant for things like the Travers, the Jockey Cup and even the the Dubai World Cup.  Sadly, Jackson isn\'t going to be around to watch her babies run so I wouldn\'t be surprised to see her in training next year.

[magicnight]

Agree on the likelihood of Rachel running as a 4YO. Perhaps that is how Jackson was convinced not to run her in the Belmont. If you want her running as a 4YO - or even as a Fall 3YO - you can\'t run her into the ground as a Spring 3YO.

[Flighted Iron]

covelj70,

 For the serious handicapper may not care,the state of racing needs a hero and she
is certainly that.For example: my own mother is absolutely against gambling of
any sort,but when she told me she was was glued to the tube prior the preakness to see if the \"girl\" horse would fare well,it reminded me that as serious horseplayers it\'s O.K. to be in wonderment about our champions on a daily basis even when we\'re trying to hit the double at indiana downs,the tri at belmont,and
the huge pick six carryover at wherever.Personally,I hope she races for a few more
years and only gets better.

mjs



mjs

[sighthound]

I think it\'s neither of the above, it\'s:

3) Athletes are brought up (physically and mentally) to peak efforts, then let down, then brought back up again.  

If she couldn\'t be held following the Preakness effort, I\'d think something was wrong.  

This is completely normal and doesn\'t indicate any change of form at all to me - it\'s just \"low level maintenance\".  

You can\'t keep an athlete at \"rock hard peak\" for the entire season.  

She\'s on a bit of summer let down, she\'ll be brought back up before the next race on her calendar.

And that will probably depend upon what she tells them she wants to do (they\'ll wait until she asks for more work)

Edit:  and the Mother Goose, if they run in it, will be nothing more than a good public workout.

[richiebee]

Covel:

From what she has accomplished in her racing career, which is basically beating
up on tomato cans of both genders while the goofy Cajun tries to imitate a
drunk at a Mardi Gras parade from the eighth pole on home, she doesn\'t even
deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Ouija Board, who campaigned
against the best males on 3 continents and more than held her own. (Ouija Board:
Champion Euro 3YO filly 2004; Eclipse Award Winning Turf Female 2004 and 2006;
European Horse of the Year 2004 and 2006; European Champion Older Horse 2006)

While we are talking turf runners, how about All Along? In 1983, she won the
Prix de Arc de Triomphe, Rothmans International, Aqueduct Turf Classic and the
Washington DC International. Four graded stakes v males in 3 countries in 40
days. 1983 Horse of the Year.

Personal Ensign, Ladys Secret, Bayakoa, Go For Wand, Ruffian...

My personal favorite, Gold Beauty, Eclipse Award winning sprinter, maybe the
bluest of all the blue hens...

Not to mention Teriyaki Steak, who once won five races in a calendar month
in an Oscar winning performance (just joking).

All RA has done so far is put up some very low TG numbers, like Commentator (NY
bred fast rat), Midnight Lute, Smarty Jones and Bellamy Road (perhaps the
ultimate equine one- hit wonder).

Speaking of Mr. Jackson, he may have done Racing a big favor by holding RA out
of the Preakness: that way there would be a possibility that Mine That Bird
could be headed to Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown with the big filly
RA looking to play spoiler. Under that scenario, Belmont/NYRA would be looking
at a crowd in excess of 100,000. As it stands now they will be lucky to see half
of that, and will probably settle for 35,000 - 45,000.

I will go as far as to say you are wrong about one thing, where you say that it
is \"obviously very debatable\" that she is the \"greatest filly of all time\".

From what RA has accomplished thus far in her career, the only statement which
is beyond debate is that she is the best 3YO in training this year.

[covelj70]

Not sure what you have against this filly but I think to make your comparison to those fillies nore useful you would have to compare what each of those fillies had done by May of their 3 year old season to what RA has done to date.  I think RA stacks up very well on that score.

You are giving those other fillies credit for accomplishments that Rachael hasn\'t had a chance at yet.

Would your view change if she wins the Travers or if she stays in training and beats olders horses next year?

She has to stay in training and get the job done in those races in order to deserve all of the cheers but hey, let\'s give her a chance to do that before we start bad mouthing her.

[richiebee]

Covel:

I have nothing against this filly.

Your \"what she accomplished by May of her 3YO year\" is part of the problem with
Racing today -- work them short and fast as 2YOs, race them hard (in these days
5-6 times per year)as 3YOs, and retire a lot of them as 4YOs. Racing fails,
builds no fan base, the breed becomes more fragile and less competitive with
each passing year.

A good example of this is Dunkirk, who has caught a lot of people\'s attention.
Lets say he wins the Belmont and one other Grade 1 this year. Any chance he
races at 4?

I\'m just old school, Covel.

Part of my problem is that I have seen a lot of brilliant horses perform. I saw
2 Triple Crown winners and a near miss. The near miss went on to have one of
the greatest racing seasons ever as a 4YO, so you know I am not talking about
Smarty Jones.

It seems like we need to have a coronation each year of the next \"greatest horse
ever\". This year it is RA. Last year it was Big Brown (anybody remember him?) A
lot of racing fans and folks with a vested interest in Racing such as yourself
seem to think Racing can be saved by 2 or 3 great race horses or a Triple Crown
winner; Racing is way more broken than that.

As I discussed in a previous post with Jimbo (who I think is sitting on a big
Belmont day after \"x\" ing last Saturday), in the old days, pre Breeders Cup and
when the top races tended to be held in 3 venues (NY, Cal, Winter in Florida)
you could have looked forward to Zenyatta and RA establishing a great rivalry
and maybe facing each other 3 or 4 times.

Racing needs more quality horses running more frequently on fewer racetracks.
Synthetic racing needs to be looked at as an experiment which failed and at
least one of the 2 California tracks needs to go back to old fashioned dirt
racing.

The economics of Racing and breeding needs to change. Unraced stallions, 4YO
stallions all to be excluded. Fewer graded stakes races-- think of the effect
this would have on field size in graded races.

Was I making a point here? Oh yes, I have nothing against this filly.

I just do not like it when smart folks such as yourself jump on a bandwagon or
fall for hype; it is more challenging and ultimately more rewarding to evaluate
RA\'s performance cooly and objectively. She dominated overmatched foes in a
short Oaks field. She caught some tired rivals in the Preakness.

People are fickle. If MTB had beaten RA in Baltimore, and he came very close to
doing so, we wouldn\'t even be talking about her now.

But I am nothing if not fair. I promise to bow down to her if and when she wins
all the big races you have mentioned.

[covelj70]

Richie,

I just literally fell out of my chair laughing about the part in here on Jimbo sitting on a big one for the Belmont after \"Xing\" last Saturday. In a lifetime of great posts, this is the absolute best.  Absolutely phenomenal.  

I agree that Jimbo is going to be huge this Saturday if for no other reason that he and I agree on Charitable Man and I trust in Jimbo so much that I went out and bought another share of Lemon Drop Kid this week which will work out nicely if we ge lucky with Charitable Man.

Great great stuff.

[smalltimer]

\"In Jimbo We Trust?\"

[jimbo66]

Every blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.  Maybe mine is Saturday.

Appreciate the vote of confidence from Covelj and Richie Bee

[covelj70]

Acorn....I like that given that \"The Acorn\" is part of the pk 4 and pk 6 sequences, I think that is an omen.

Jimbo, there\'s 10 horses in the Brookylyn.  How many will you let me use singled to Charitable Man in the Brooklyn/Belmont double so that I can avoid your ire?

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I am going to give you my real answer, instead of the sarcastic one!!

It depends.  Figure 5-2 on Charitable Man and hope for 3-1.

I would not want to bet doubles with horses that cumulatively get more than 33% of the win pool in the Brooklyn.  If you do, you are effectively diluting the Charitable Man bet too much.  

So, single a 5-2 shot if you like one.  

Or play 2 horses in the 4-1ish range.  Or 3 or 4 in the 10-1 range.

Got any views on the Brooklyn?  The sheets nor the morning line are available, just the DRF PP\'s.  But, since he is top weighted and won this race last year, the handicapping starts with Delosvientos.  He stopped to a crawl last race and the connections are blaming the jockey.  Hard to see how being beat by 57 lengths can be the jockey\'s fault, but I hope the public buys that excuse and makes him the favorite.  Albertrani is running an entry, of which only one will run.  If he runs Ea back in this spot, I am interested.  Was stuck with an against the bias closing move on Preakness day and dead-heated for 2nd in a race won by the Beattie horse that TGJB/AB nailed.  Before that Ea had paired 0\'s, I believe.  Should sit a nice trip behind the speed.  The other interesting one is Rising Moon.  Had what would seem to be a good prep where in a 3 horse field Cornelio \"braincramped\" and decided to gun for the lead and get into a duel while Dry Martini sat back and gobbled him up in the stretch.  Good switch to Gomez and a more patient ride, behind Delosvieotos would make him tough.

But just to be crystal clear Covelj, wheeling Charmitable Man with the top 5 or 6 betting choices in the Brooklyn would be horrible (again) and likely to elicit another \"you bet like an owner\" wiseass remark.  

Good luck.