Question for everyone on Rachael

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

oustanding, love this.

you will make a gambler out of me yet  forget the fact that I just bet the farm on this additional Lemon Drop share, I want more leverage to this regally bred son of Lemon Drop!

I will throw up some thoughts on the Brooklyn when the sheets are posted (tomorrow night?) to get some thoughts on who I will use (3 at most, I promise!!!!)

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> Jimbo,
>
> oustanding, love this.
>
> you will make a gambler out of me yet  forget
> the fact that I just bet the farm on this
> additional Lemon Drop share, I want more leverage
> to this regally bred son of Lemon Drop!
>
> I will throw up some thoughts on the Brooklyn when
> the sheets are posted (tomorrow night?) to get
> some thoughts on who I will use (3 at most, I
> promise!!!!)


Are the entries drawn yet for the Belmont?  You figure with everyone knowing the Belmont is coming up paceless one of the two closers (Mine that Bird or Dunkirk would have a rabbit in there to keep things honest for them).  If they don\'t I\'m gonna wish I bought a piece of Lemon Drop Kid myself after the race.

[covelj70]

lol,

Pletcher said he was going to discuss with Tabor and Maginier about entering a rabbit.

I don\'t think that will matter that much though as Charitable Man rated off the pace in the Peter Pan so I don\'t think a rabbit would ruin him....at least I hope.

[P-Dub]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Covelj,
>

> It depends.  Figure 5-2 on Charitable Man and hope
> for 3-1.
>

I don\'t think CM goes off that short.

MTB will be favored. You\'ve also got Dunkirk, who has been touted by everybody for months.  Chocolate Candy will take some money. In a 10 horse field, I wouldn\'t be surprised if CM is around 4-1 or 9/2.  You won\'t have any problem getting the 3/1 you\'re hoping for.

[covelj70]

I definitely hope 7-2 or 4-1 is right but the way Kirian is chatting this horse up around the barn, I actually think he will go off at 2-1.  Hope I am wrong.

[jimbo66]

Lost Cause,

Entries are drawn tomorrow.  

I don\'t think Charitable Man gets loose on the lead. I am pretty sure that TG\'s race shape will say that he does, but you have to figure things like trainer intent.  A couple factors.  Everybody and their mother is talking about Charitable Man being \"loose\" early. There is way too much awareness of this going into the race.  Secondly, Zito won the Belmont wire to wire last year and coincidentally he has the only other horse with a semblance of early speed, Miner\'s Escape.  He has pressed the lead in his last two races, albeit at relatively slow fractions.  However, the Belmont fractions are almost always slow.  Also, Kiaran has been seemingly trying to get Charitable Man to relax a bit, directing the jockey to slow it down in the last workout.  Kiaran is about as confident as I can remember reading him be.  I doubt he tells Garcia, \"send\".  If you think you have the best horse, you tell the jockey to just leave the gate and allow the colt to run at his pace.  Whereas whoever is riding Miner\'s Escape should be \"sending\".

I actually think CM sits second, off relatively slow fractions.  I have to see the figures, but in that scenario, Miner\'s Escape could be the longshot to include underneath, as all the closers wait for a pace to materialize that never will.

[P-Dub]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> I definitely hope 7-2 or 4-1 is right but the way
> Kirian is chatting this horse up around the barn,
> I actually think he will go off at 2-1.  Hope I am
> wrong.


Lots of trainers do this, and I\'m sure KM isn\'t just blowing smoke.

But the Belmont is another of those races that attracts lots of \"casual\" money from people who have no clue who KM is or what he is saying. I would be shocked if he\'s 2-1. If CM is 2-1, what does that make MTB, 3/2 ??  MTB will be the favorite.

Just don\'t see CM going off at anything below 3/1.

[sekrah]

Agree.. There\'s NO WAY IN HELL Charitable Man goes off at anything less than 3/1..  I wouldn\'t be surprised if we saw 9/2 or 5-1.

Rachel was 9/5 in the Preakness and the next 3 were POTN at 6-1, MTB 6-1, FF 9-1.

MTB has 6/5, 7/5 potential here.  Dunkirk will pull money in, Flying Private will go off at no longer than 10-1, IMO.

Beyer gave Charitable Man a horrible figure for the Peter Pan, 93 or 96?   This will definently help those of us on CM.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah and P-Dub,

I hope you are right, but I sincerely doubt it.  3-1, maybe.  4-1, never.  He won\'t be the 2-1 that Covelj is worrying about, but he won\'t be much higher.  

Mine that Bird will be the favorite, but somewhere above even money. 7-5?  

Dunkirk will take some money.  9-2?

But then other than mabye chocolate candy, nobody else less than 10-1.  

Sekrah,

The Preakness had more viable options.  POTN was 2nd in the Derby.  Friesan Fire was the Derby favorite.  Mine that Bird, the Derby winner.  Rachel, the runaway Oaks winner.  Papa Clem and Musket Man finished 3rd and 4th in the Derby with solid runs.

If Flying Private is 10-1 or under, the world is flat and Santa Claus exists.

[sekrah]

Flying Private got a 102 Beyer out the Preakness.

Him, Dunkirk, and MTB are the only ones in the race that have ran a Beyer over 100.  FP will take money!

The casual bettor who only bets triple crown races don\'t know beans about Charitable Man.  They do know Flying Private made a deep closing run in the Preakness and those types tend to get play in the Belmont.

Charitable Man\'s past performances in the Daily Racing Form do not scream clear-cut 2nd Favorite to MTB.

[BB]

He is 3-for-3 on dirt, and 2-for-2-graded-stakes at Belmont. I\'d think 7/5 for MTB and 3-1 for CM is about right.

[alm]

You are of course spot on.

The only filly you left off your list, to my recollection, is Shuvee who won consecutive Jockey Club Gold Cups at 2 miles...maybe the all time filly endurance champion.

[richiebee]

richiebee Wrote:
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> With all due respect, Covel, I vote for #3, \"Good
> God, who cares, enough
> already\".
 
 
> I would rather discuss something which may present
> a more lucrative result, such
> as where will Alsy Goldberg go with his NY Bred
> turf runner by Giant\'s Causeway
> who came back from a layoff in such impressive
> fashion on Memorial Day?

That would have been Straight Story.

\"Alsy\" Goldberg ran him in the 500k race at Colonial.

SS won\'t be 8/1 next time.

A rather unlikely trip but a very sharp effort.

Tough beat if you bet him top end only.

[Michael D.]

Nice spot Richie B. The bear out last off the big new top was worrisome (at least to me), but sometimes they\'re just a bit green, which appears to be the case in this spot. The 7 was competitive with a ground saving trip.

A well bred NY rat, isn\'t he?