Thanks for the Belmont ROTW and for your analysis. I haven\'t spent an enormous amount of time with this yet, but I want to question (not challenge) some of the assumptions you used for some of the runners.
Charitable Man: you throw out his poly try and focus only on his improvement over his 2yo top to reduce the percentage that he will bounce off a large 6 point improvement between his last 2 races. Why throw out the poly try? How do we know that this isn\'t a poly-loving horse (since he\'s only been on it once)? Maybe the poly race was the best he could do and he is coming off a 6 point jump. Wouldn\'t that suggest he MAY bounce?
Mine That Bird: you say he is reminiscent of Charismatic and War Emblem who were slow as 2yos, but got good in the spring. Suppose, however, that MTB is a poly-hating horse. Since that\'s all he ran on as a 2yo, maybe that\'s why his 2yo figures were slow. He won most of those races...so maybe he was a very special 2yo, overcoming a very basic adversity. Maybe this was a young horse crying out for dirt...and when he finally got on dirt, he began progressing dramatically. In fact, his 3yo progression might be viewed very differently than you suggest in comparing his 3yo spring numbers to his 2yo numbers. If this is the case, might not his 3yo numbers suggest he might even be sitting on another improvement?
Summer Bird: you forgive him for a monumental jump forward and I respect your analysis. However, I don\'t like the added blinkers for a horse that\'s expected to be a closer. If it were my horse and I believed in his strong Derby, I would not be messing around with it. There is a possibility this one will show more speed and NO closing kick. Maybe.
Your comments on Zito\'s 2 entries are fairly negative, but you suggest you might have to take them more seriously because of the \'Zito factor.\' If there is one thing I\'ve learned as a bettor it\'s the admonition NOT to bet today\'s race thinking about the last race I lost. I want to suggest that Zito\'s runners will not pull a fluke here...if you want to think about a factor, think about the \'Lucas factor,\' because his 2 entries look far more dangerous than Zito\'s do, this year.
All in all, I see MTB slipping at worst to a 2, if not improving off his pair up, and that may very well be enough to win this race. I intend to key him with the 1, 2, 5, 6 and 8. It\'s not a great scenario for a bettor and I hate to chase 2-1 shots in any race. I just don\'t see these plugs beating him.
