The Belmont will be ROTW

[TGJB]

ALM-- we have reason to believe CM does not like poly because his race over it was worse than all his dirt races. but even if he does like it and just ran badly because he was short, we compare the top to his 2yo top, as others have said here. Which doesn\'t mean he can\'t bounce, but makes it a whole lot less likely than if he had a 6 top at two, and 6-0 on dirt this year.

MTB-- if he didn\'t have the first 2 dirt figures this year I would say he probably just didn\'t like synth. But he didn\'t immediately run big figures, he developed into them. As I said, it\'s probably 50/50 that he has another in him. I said after the Derby that he was the kind that could put in 3 big ones, because he didn\'t have big ones BEFORE the Derby, which most do. That gives him a better chance of running well than most off two big TC efforts, but it\'s still his third start in 5 weeks, 2 big efforts, lots of development.

SB-- I agree about the blinkers, I don\'t like new random factors with horses that have been running well. But price is a factor here.

Zito-- he clearly points horses for the Belmont, and they have fired off some awful looking lines, and more importantly, run new tops. I don\'t remember any Lukas horses running new tops in the Belmont, but I didn\'t go back and look. I did with Zito. And it makes it hard to throw his horses out just because their patterns are weak. That doesn\'t mean I\'m going to key them or play them heavy, but I\'m going to use them in exotics. Lukas too, underneath.

If you make MTB 100% to run well, he\'s still no better than 2-1 to win the race, just because there are two other horses with similar number power, and others that could run new tops, bad trip possibilities for all aside. Since nobody is ever 100% to run well, he has to be an underlay.

[magicnight]

Commendable ran a big new top to win the race, but he also had five weeks rest.

[Dudley]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Zito-- he clearly points horses for the Belmont,
> and they have fired off some awful looking lines,
> and more importantly, run new tops. I don\'t
> remember any Lukas horses running new tops in the
> Belmont, but I didn\'t go back and look. I did with
> Zito. And it makes it hard to throw his horses out
> just because their patterns are weak. That doesn\'t
> mean I\'m going to key them or play them heavy, but
> I\'m going to use them in exotics. Lukas too,
> underneath.

I\'m going for a key on Miner\'s Escape. Definitely some straight win money on this attractive price shot. I don\'t think his line looks awful, and I disagree that he\'s going backward on Saturday. As you noted, Zito points to these and we shouldn\'t ignore that fact when assessing the pattern. I\'m using his other runner too- maybe double key them in a tri w/All- based on Zito (and LaPenta) history.
Spring 3yos...this one moving up another 2-3 points at 15-1 is worth my play. He\'s just getting good now- I think that is intentional.

[TreadHead]

I\'ll cast a disenting vote.

Miner has already improved 9 points this year (as have MTB and Flying Private) and playing him to move forward another 2 or 3 points there I would need at least 80-1 because history shows that just dont happen much at all.  DaTaras move last year to get to zero was from a 7 2-yrold top, much more statistically probable than getting there from an 11.

Last year, there were not many number power horses capable of running around a zero (once you threw out Big Brown), but this year there are several.  You have to get to a zero to win it appears, and of the 2 Zito horses, the other has infinitely more upside, at least based on number power.  Granted it seems he might not like this distance, but I\'d much rather be keying on him for a longshot than Miner.

[Michael D.]

Hi P. With two longshots in my top 3, I have some wiggle room here. Won\'t know what I\'ll do with CM until post time though. He gets more weight if the surface comes up anything like it did Peter Pan day. What type of odds are we looking at here? MTB 7-5, CM 3-1, Dunk 4-1, CC 13-1, SB 15-1?

[P-Dub]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> Hi P. With two longshots in my top 3, I have some
> wiggle room here. Won\'t know what I\'ll do with CM
> until post time though. He gets more weight if the
> surface comes up anything like it did Peter Pan
> day. What type of odds are we looking at here? MTB
> 7-5, CM 3-1, Dunk 4-1, CC 13-1, SB 15-1?


Odds are about right.  I\'m bummed about the weather though, some nice turf races may be ruined by the rain.

[Dudley]

Thanks for your thoughts TreadHead. He either moves up or he doesn\'t. As I said, I\'m factoring in Zito-intention here and that has me thinking this horse has a forward move coming second off the lay. Also ME has been a better horse since the blinks went on and winning back-to-back after finally breaking his maiden; he\'s showing development figs notwithstanding. The Mineshaft bloodline adds confidence; horses running a zero at 9 and 10f doesn\'t mean they\'ll repeat it at 12f. I\'ll take 80-1 if its offered,- ha! But I expect closer to 20 and I prefer that to sweating out CM at 5/2. Good luck to you.

[spa]

Old school says,bet the winner,don\'t worry about the price. Calvin will be going so fast at the 1/8th pole,his saddle towel number will show 777.............

[MO]

I wonder what Calvin\'s win % @ Belmont Park is............

[MO]

Long time since I\'ve posted but this is an interesting race.

Straight off, I\'m with you on this pick. In my mind, this horse has \"new top - lone speed wire to wire\" written all over him. Or at least laying 2nd... This horse hasn\'t backed up yet and his last 2 suggest the distance is not going to be an issue.His works say he is still improving and I think you only need a 1 to win this race. He\'s got 35 days rest off that big top too. Perfect post position. A small forward move at 15-1 puts him in the trifecta - at least.

Charitable Man is not seasoned enough. I think he will bounce and if he\'s the one to beat, then a 1 is a realistic figure to project for this race.

The prospect of an off track hurts the chances of many and the others are too slow.

Finally, I agree with Jerry about MTB being 50-50 to back up  and, FWIW just lemme tell yall something: I was raised on Long Island and lived there 26 years. I lived in New Mexico for 10 years. I worked at Belmont and the Downs at Albuquerque. There ain\'t no friggen way a horse from New Mexico is gonna win the Belmont Stakes.....

[twoshoes]

I don\'t pick enough winners to not worry about the price, don\'t know about you. I\'m taking a contrarian view of this race as I can find many reasons to avoid the short ones. MTB as the favorite off two big efforts, 3rd race 5 weeks, race shape etc... Charitable Man to me is as likely to react to his last as he is to pair and at a short price I\'ll take that view. 7-2 or better I\'ll take the rosy view. If Dunkirk is shorter than 6-1 he\'s easy for me to pass on, if not I\'ll use him defensively. I\'m going with the view that a 1 to 2 may be all it takes to win this. To that end I looked for horses that will be prices that could run those figs. I\'m going to toss the Churchill slop and take the view that today is the day for the synth to dirt explosion for Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff. Summer Bird, Miners Escape and Flying Private are the other players for me. Keying CC & MHS with SB, ME & FP in exactas and tris sprinkling MTB, CM & Dunkirk in the bottom slot. Anchoring Pick 4\'s with CC & MHS. Good luck to all.