Emboldened by RichieBee and Covelj\'s support, in spite of my awful handicapping job last weekend, here are some early thoughts on the Saturday Stakes races.
True North - I think the key has to be Desert Key. He gets 7 lbs from Fabulous Strike and 8 lbs from Benny the Bull. With the weight is faster than Benny and about on par with Fabulous Strike. If Desert Key can run negative 2 and change as a 3 year old, what can he do at 4. Strange race 1st time back as he lost to an inferior horse, but was pretty wide. Expecting 2nd off the layoff improvement, big time, with Jimmy Jerkens as trainer. Using both Desert Key and FAbulous STrike in the pick-6, but will be betting Desert Key to win at expected overlaid odds. (3rd choice)
Just a Game - Not a great betting race as Forever Together is awfully good, at her best. If she runs the \"0\", she wins. Tough to guess at odds without Morning Line, but guessing that NY Bred I Lost My Choo goes off at 8-1 or better. She got back to her top last time, a pair up, with a trip gets her no worse than 2nd to Forever Together, a new top makes her very dangerous. The other thing to hope if you want to beat Forever Together is that 1 mile is not the ideal distance for her and perhaps she doesn\'t have to fire her top. If she just re-runs the 2 she ran last time, with the weight, that just makes her on par with I Lost my Choo. I will bet I Lost My Choo to win, but also play an exacta underneath Forever Together.
Woody Stephens - I think This One\'s for Phil is a standout here. Paired up the negative 2\'s and looks worse on Beyer than on TG, which is good for us TG users (assuming JB got it right). Gets enough spacing here to even consider it possible for him to run back to his top, which blows this field away. I am guessing this horse doesn\'t go off as short as he should, because Hull is undefeated, Munnings ran a triple digit beyer last time and Everyday Heroes ran the big number on Preakness day. I don\'t like that Everyday Heroes was bearing out badly last time out, the fact that he was bearing out while running a 4 point new top and now gets only 3 weeks rest, makes it worse. Hull has spacing and room to improve, but is too slow to contend seriously. Hello Broadway is a slow rat with a reputation. Should be 30-1, will probably be 7-1 or so. Hope for 7-2 on This One\'s For Phil and bet him to win and also single him in multi-race bets.
Acorn - Tough call for me on how to play this race in the pick-6. Without the Oaks day injury, I would make Justwhistledixie my second \"single\", along with This One\'s for Phil and move on. However, with that setback, and a couple of potentially interesting horses in the race, I am inclined to make this a \"spread race\". Funny Moon got down to a \"3\" last time, which with a trip and JWD not running her absolute best, makes her a contender. The question is was is the wet tracks that moved her up in the last two, or was it just natural progression from racing. As the favorite, I would assume the former, at a healthy price (which is likely), I can assume the latter and use her. I will also use Doremifasolatido. Ran 3 \"5\'s\" last year and ran the top right back first time out in a race where she looked to me like she wasn\'t at her best and may have needed it. Jimmy Jerkens, against 2nd off the layoff, should have her wound up. The fact he points her to this race is an aggressive trainer move, based on the comebacker, and the odds should be attractive. 2 firsts and 2 seconds at Belmont solidify my positive view on her. Livin Lovin ran a 3 last year as a 2 year old, and now goes first out this year. Not enough data on Birdstone yet to identify what kind of development should be expected for his offspring, but Klesaris is very solid off the long layoff and goes to Dominguez, which signals the horse is very live. Will also use Kiaran\'s other horse, Dream Play, on the spread ticket, because she may run the 2 again, while on the lead, although she has less room for improvement, than the others, IMO. Will be going 5 deep on the Pick-6 ticket, but throwing JWD off the ticket on the pick-4 and trying to beat her in the win pool as well, keying one of Livin Lovin, Doremifasolatido, or Funny Moon, based on prices.
Manhattan - Probably my key race in the pick-6. In what looks like a very wide open race, have to believe most will be using at least a couple here in the pick-6. Court Vision is the best turf horse in the race and will show it Saturday. I assume the turf course will be firm, when I say that. I think we have not seen Court Vision\'s best this year. Chased Kip Deville at 1 1/8 over a speed favoring turf course, then ran on synthetic, then ran over a boggy turf course on Derby Day, taking the inside path on the turn and in the stretch, which was easily the worst part of the turf course. Didn\'t get the dead rail distinction from TG, but IMO, he should have gotten or it was at least a close call. Ran the top last year at Belmont and offspring of Gulch develop 3 points on average from 3 to 4. I believe the circumstances mentioned before have masked this horse\'s development. I think Ramon gives him a nice ground saving trip from the inside and runs by them in the stretch. I don\'t think I get more than 3-1, but as a single in multi-race bets, I can make money with him. I don\'t like Cowboy Cal, even though he is a hard tryer and seems to always be there. I believe the boggy turf course played to the fact that Cowboy Cal doesn\'t have classic turf \"acceleration\" and is more of a grinder. Don\'t believe he can stay with Court Vision late. I think Gio Ponto wants a little less than 1 1/4. I am tired of waiting for Zambesi Sun to run well, although he got a \"false wide\" figure last time by running wide on the better part of the turf course, which may have made up for the ground he lost. Wesley may be interesting underneath, at a price, after a poorly timed/judged ride last time, as pointed out by several on this board already. Cosmonaut is always a contender, as he is very consistent, and has tactical speed, but believe he also won\'t be able to stay with Court Vision late.
Belmont Stakes - Already discussed here. Will be singling Charitable Man on most multi-race tickets, sprinkling in a little Dunkirk.
Good luck.
