Latenight Hollywood Capping 6/5

[sekrah]

6th Race - #8 Lethal Dose, sitting at 6-1 right now with 5 MTP, clearly the fastest in this field of 1st and 2nd timers (outside of Party Mandate who I hate coming off the 6 month shelf here with a dodgy trainer).  Don\'t see how the heck they are ignoring her?

First time starter #5 Steal N\'Home out of Grand Slam is the only one that worries me on breeding.

[sekrah]

Ughh... Funk that 4 horse!!!! Blah.. 3w didn\'t help me, I thought Kayla made her move too soon too.

Hollywood bettors nearly giftwrapped another big one for me.

[APny]

That 8 just doesn\'t want to win.....I LOVE the 7 Ghetto in the next...he\'s the only horse that looks like he\'s likely to improve..Distance is a plus too..Like him lots with the 4..any thoughts?

[sekrah]

Did you have Strawberry Tart?   Horse had the best figs and  was ooooozing turf breeding.

This is such a tough field in the next one.  I concur with you on Ghetto.  His line looks awesome and He should have a 3 or 4 in him somewhere in his line this year and it may be today.

It looks extremely tight filling out the rest of it.

#5 Firewood is a must use on any exotic ticket.  He\'s getting a little long in the tooth but he fires big on the synth-turf move and may be ready for another 4 here.

#1 Epic Power getting a 1w1w running a 4 will be very tough.


Waiting on to see where the odds go to determine how I end up playing this..

[sekrah]

Ghetto\'s running style scares me on the outside post.. It\'s possible he runs the best fig here but catches a 3w3w or worse.   Heating up to Epic Power..

[sekrah]

Ugh that stunk.  The Hollywood guys were gushing how Man To Man looked in the paddock.

[APny]

Of course I went with the wrong one..that 4 got crushed in the pik 3\'s and doubles..smart money in california...7 ran terrible.

[sekrah]

Gimme the chalk #1 Move Out in the upcoming 7th.

use with the longshots, 2,5,8

[sekrah]

Ugh ugly again.. I\'ll stick with the Thorougbreds lol.

[Lost Cause]

Hey Sekrah,
I see that you play a lot of lower tier tracks while I generally stay away from them..Any thoughts on which tracks run consistently with the TG numbers.  I tend not to play them because the horses are so ouchy that they tend to run in and out patterns and I have a hard enough time with regular patterns.
Thanks

[sekrah]

8th race has alot of question marks.

#1 Lil Red Hot -- Too slow, poor connections, might have another move to 17 perhaps, but breeding isn\'t too prominant, toss.

#2 Christy\'s Bullet -- Clear favorite but kind of a sketchy alternating pattern, maybe blinkers off will help, likely 1w on the turn, is a must use.

#3 Court Ballado -- Her 14 is very competitive here.  Would not bet on a new top though.  May get out ahead of Christy and secure the rail in front of her.

#4 Cape Moonlight -- Reacted poorly to the 14, maybe she don\'t like the track here?  But likely lone early speed, at the price, you cannot toss her out, but key her neither.

#5 Improper Ettiquette -- Too slow in opener, breeding doesnt instill confidence.

#6 Fall Forest - A pair won\'t win this, top extremely unliekly

#7 Unknown Heat - Didn\'t like the route, but I have a tough time using here.

#8 Patiently - Needs another big move.

#9 Gribella - Legit trouble in her last, based on 3yo numbers and breeding, there must be potential in this horse for a 13,14.  Good trainer could have her ready at decent value

#10 Mudistique - Too slow





I\'m going to bet on Gribella developing and use her as my key..  with the 2,3,4

[sekrah]

The Louisiana tracks..  Louisiana Downs and Evangeline Downs..  These are near the top of my list of low-tier tracks that I have been successful with Thorograph with.   I had a wonderful night at both tracks tonight.   Check out the redboard tomorrow to get a feel of how they play.

I\'m sure there may be a couple others I can\'t think of that I\'ve had success at, but I\'ve done horrible with alot of the mid-Atlantic tracks such as Charles Town, Mountaineer, Penn National, Beulah, River/Thistledown..  I don\'t think TG is useful at some of these claiming dumps.

[sekrah]

Terrible.. 9 didn\'t fire at all, and 6 wrecked everything else, Ah well.

[Lost Cause]

Thanks alot Sekrah..I might try the Louisiana and Evangeline tracks for a bit.

[sekrah]

I only got to do the last 3 or 4 Louisiana Downs races tonight.. If you get a chance to Redboard Friday nights races..  Some of the ones I had some nice hits on tonight with TG were:


Louisiana Downs 9th Race ($14 Winner was clearly the fastest in the race)
Evangeline Downs 3rd Race (Huge value on the 4, Had him, the 3, and the 10 keyed up, but the 10 didn\'t fire and a longshot i didnt use in the 3rd spot wrecked my super)
Evangeline Downs 5th Race (Had 2-11 keyed up to kingdom come)
Evangeline Downs 8th Race (Same with the 3-7 in this one)


There are lots of value to be found in races down there, and rarely any outrageous head-scratchers that you will often see at a track like Mountaineer or Penn National.