Pick four Belmont July 4

[analizethis]

Did anyone else find it curious that the late pick four on Saturday paid only $1,103 for a buck when it included a $14 horse, a $15 horse and a $23 horse along with the chalk in the second leg.
That adds up to about 80% of the parlay value which is particularly low. Typically pick fours return at least a 50% to 75% premium to the parlay value often much higher (for example the Belmont Stakes premium was over 300%).
I have a concern that declines in handle are starting to significantly impact prices (i.e the pick four pool was just not large enough to support the expected payoff).
I don\'t know if anyone here analyzes any of this but I think I am also going to post on Crist\'s DRF blog as he has a pretty good grasp of these types of issues.
Any insight would be appreciated.

[HP]

You\'ve got a point, especially considering there was a GUARANTEE on that pick four ($350K?).  

HP

[Lost Cause]

HP Wrote:
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> You\'ve got a point, especially considering there
> was a GUARANTEE on that pick four ($350K?).  
>
> HP


If there is a guarantee then that would have nothing to do with the handle decline..It was because a lot of people crushed the bet.

[jimbo66]

The handle on the bet was sufficient that it doesn\'t explain the low payoff.  

As somebody who cashed this pick-4, I understand your point about it usually paying more than parlay, but there were some logical reasons IMO as to why it didn\'t and I wasn\'t too surprised when I saw the will-pays.

1.  The most solid favorite in the sequence was the other half of the entry that won the 2nd leg.  I know that Warrior\'s Reward got bet down late, but it would seem that more people would view that race as wide open than Prioress.  The entry should have been 4-5 or 3-5 in the Prioress except for a ridiculous amount of money bet on Gabby\'s Golden Girl in the win pool, which may not have been the case in the multi-race bets.

2.  Dry Martini was 6-1 ML, so the $23.60 in the win pool was a bit of a surprise.  

3.  The horse in the last last leg was 4-1 second choice on the ML but paid much more than that in the win pool.

I think it added up to what looked like an underlay.  I was alive to 5 horses in the last leg and except for the two long shots I used, the rest of the will pays were all similarly underlaid.  

Nothing suspicious or sinister.

[analizethis]

Thanks for the good thoughts.
I also cashed and was alive to 4 in the last leg (1.4.5 and 7) all with similar values.
Fortunately I was A,A,A,B on which I had $2 but the 7 was another A and I had $3 on that combo.So for $ 148 investment I got about 14 -1.
By the way, does anybody know if they reached the guarantied pool?

[Silver Charm]

I totally agree with this. The fav in the last was crushed to 3/5 and the 10 was also bet in half therefore others like the 4, who won, were generous.

Dry Martini was great if you had him. Obviously a lot of us did not or he doesn\'t pay $23.

[nyctoon]

I know Steve Byk, who I think uses TG, gave out the pick 4 on his website.  He\'s been pretty hot lately, so he may have some followers.  Not sure if he has enough to make a big dent, but what if 50 people played his ticket?

[Lost Cause]

It really was not a hard pick 4..
Kensei was one of the top plays as you knew Just Ben would bounce.  The Prioress looked solid with the 1 entry although I did not expect 4/5.  You had to go five deep in the Suburban and in the last race it looked like the 1 horse and the one that won.

[imallin]

Glass half empty or half full.

We always look at the win prices and assume they are accurate and then look at the exotic prices to see if things \'match up\'. In actuality, you can make a strong case that the exotic prices are much more indicative of an efficient market while the win pools are not as \'sophisticated\'

If you looked at the pick 4 price and said that it paid what it was supposed to pay, you can then look at the win prices and see that they provided tremendous value. Also, isn\'t there a 10 percent difference in takeout rates between win and pick 4s?

The best bettors hammer the exotics because those pools are usually bigger and at the same time, you can make a bigger score than if you just bet win.

[HP]

Just Ben had room to bounce and win.  I backed into the exacta there because I did not like Warrior\'s Reward at all, but I would have done a lot better with Just Ben on top, or even on the damn board.  

HP

[Lost Cause]

HP Wrote:
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> Just Ben had room to bounce and win.  I backed
> into the exacta there because I did not like
> Warrior\'s Reward at all, but I would have done a
> lot better with Just Ben on top, or even on the
> damn board.  
>
> HP

He is a speightstown stretching out off of a bias aided win and he did nothing before that race.  He was an automatic toss for me.  I have to admit I was tempted though as he went off at longer odds than I thought he would have.

[analizethis]

I think I agree that the takeaway on these issue is: pay attention to the tote board after you make your multi-race wagers to find value race by race.
Thanks for the thoughts.

[HP]

Lost - Congratulations on tossing him.  Nothing you wrote changes what I said.  He had room to bounce (perhaps up to 4 points) and still win.  Given the prices I saw in the exactas before the race I would make the same bet(s) again.  

HP