Alan:
As usual an extensive and astute analysis.
A point with regard to Straight Story. You make a lot of the fact that he bore
out in his last 2 starts. In his last start, however, the TG trackman, the DRF
trackman and my visual recollection all concur that this colt was carried wide
by a rival to his inside. In his first start of the season, he was allowed to
drift in the lane after humbling some overmatched foes. That being said, I
think this Alsy Goldberg runner tires from 2 sharp efforts off the layoff.
The ROTW analysis favors Winstar/Mott Hold Me Back. To me, this one offers
little value as a potential second favorite trying turf for the first time
in a decent field. With regards to owner/trainer intent, why is top turf trainer
Mott putting this son of Giants Causeway on the lawn for the first time midway
through his 3YO campaign? And if the answer to this question is that Winstar
identified this runner early on as a Derby horse, why did they leave him with
Billy Mott, a world class Hall of Fame trainer who has had absolutely no
success with Spring 3YOs?
I\'ll take a shot with two runners bred to like the 10f distance-- El Crespo and
Lime Rickey. With EC I\'m hoping that Leparoux can keep this one a little
further off the pace than he has been in recent races. Rusty Arnold\'s \"Last 90
Day\" Fig Based Stat is quite impressive, albeit based on a small sample (and
thank you for explaining the discrepancy in sample size in the trainer stats).
Lime Rickey is a consistent closer who should like the pace set up and the
distance of the race; supporters of this Frank Alexander trainee have to hope
that Cornelio can guide him to the rail in early stages of the race.
I\'ll use EC and LR in the all stakes P3, hoping for odds on each between 6/1 -
10/1.
Looking forward to some \"Bombowitz\" specials opening weekend at the Spa.
