I guess I will ensure that Macho Again wins this race by saying that I completely agree with Covelj that he is a throwout for the same reasons he gave.
Tricky race to bet as we all know that if Commentator runs his \"A\" race, he wins by 5 lengths or more. I also am not sure if he goes off as short a price as many think, as I don\'t know a single handicapper that actually likes him at this point. If he goes off at 2-1, the race is unbettable for me, as he is one fast horse and I have to believe Zito will have him ready to run. I guess the good news for those trying to beat him is that he hasn\'t run his \"A\" race in a year. If he doesn\'t run, the conventional TG play would be to bet Tizway as Covelj laid out. He gets 2 points of weight, has speed, figures to get a rail trip, and comes in weight adjusted faster than everybody but Commentator. The problem for me is the race shape. It seems to me that the way to beat Commentator is not to outrun him early, but rather to pass him after he battles the other speed horse. For Tizway to win, he probably has to wire this field and I don\'t think he can put Commentator away on the front end, then hold off the closers. I think Commentator has to \"x\", big time, for Tizway to win. I guess I can take 12-1 on that happening, but I don\'t think I will key Tizway. I think the way to play the race for me is to play the Test-Whitney double and try to beat Cat Moves in the first half and then Commentator in the second half. I think I will play a 2 by 3 double. In the first leg I think Heart Ashley has a big shot. The back figure she has is very fast and she gets enough time in this race to run back to it. The race shape for her is 100% better than her last race. She ran a blistering half last time out with Light Green who is an absolute monster filly. THis time she gets a relatively easy lead unless Cat Moves sends hard and the only question will be the distance. I have to disagree with whoever wrote the ROTW in that I can\'t use First Passage. I am actually surprised that either Allan or Jerry would think it is a good idea to use this horse off a 6 point new top run at Calder, where Wolfson is a big time \"move up\" trainer. Hard to believe that horse will run near that this time. I think my secondary horse here, again disagreeing with the ROTW, will be Flashing. Fell apart against Rachel last time but I expect a forward move/new top for this horse and a nice trip, perhaps sitting 2nd. I also think she will be better than the 7-2 ML, perhaps 5-1ish.
In the second half of the double, I will use Tizway, Dry Martini and Smooth Air. Dry Martini is in good form, the outside post shouldn\'t matter as there is plenty of speed to stretch out the field, and Tagg\'s horses are running at Saratoga so far. 8-1 is more than fair. Smooth should get a good trip, from the rail, perhaps sitting 3rd and can get the 1 1/8. I won\'t hold the loss at Monmouth, against a \"horse for the course\" on a speed favoring track, against him. He had a good run in the Met Mile in the previous race and can run his race from the rail post and be dangerous.
Some comments on Arlington coming later tonight on what looks like a good card.
