ROTW??

[Lost Cause]

Any idea on the ROTW?

[TGJB]

Iselin, Alan forgot to put it up, going up now.

By the way, Alan is doing the seminars this weekend. I\'ll be up there Labor Day weekend.

[Deadrockstar]

Okay, so I was wrong in saying the Beldame would settle the argument over Zenyatta and RA.

But the dueling races of the week is a real glove-dropper between TG and Rags. Is Researcher \"a pretty solid play\" like TG says, or is he \"a defensible key\" as Len opines? Is You and I Forever my key at 6-1 or simply a horse that \"can be used in exotics?\"
 
Given my divided loyalties, I\'m going with a 2-horse box.

Serious question. Do you have live ground for CT or something better (like replays over the Internet) than the computer program you referenced years back in doing live ground for that track.

Len says Rags has the 2 CT efforts for Researcher as a pair of tops, while TG has it as a top and a bounce. (I assume you don\'t do the CT numbers yourself.)

[TGJB]

1-- The difference between the figures we have for the horse at CT is extremely unlikely to be a function of ground. That\'s assuming they are different on scale-- we actually might have the non-CT figures different.

2-- We don\'t have live ground at CT. The program we use is so sophisticated you would not believe it-- it was designed by a guy (Paul) who spent 10 years or so in the Ragozin office and was designing something he knew was much more sophisticated than they have. On top of which, after it produces paths, we check against chart comments. We\'re seldom going to be off by much.

3-- Unfortunately, Len and I are pretty close on the Iselin. Unfortunate both because it means the prices won\'t be great, and because his record is unbelievably bad on these. And he\'s not a bad handicapper, as I have said before.

[miff]

ROTW Race Shape has three horses \"faster\" early than Coal Play,absurd. Suggest you have that fixed or discontinue it. I have seen horses infinitely faster early than others but Race Shape shows it the other way around.


Mike

[TGJB]

Actually, it has one faster and two the same-- 9 hundreths is not significant, we\'re not claiming to be that accurate, just to give a picture of the pace scenario. Keep in mind that what is shown on the graph is just an average of the last 3 races.

It will be interesting to see if CP clears easily without being asked. There are some issues with RS, but they mostly have to do with unusual distances that are not run often at a particular track.

[miff]

Averaging might be ok but not when one or more horses has a sprint in the last three and the others have three routes.At the very least, the same distance for all horses would be necessary to come close to the best picture.

Mike

[Deadrockstar]

Well, based on the way the chart calls shape up at CT -- a 6F track -- for a 9F race, it\'s difficult to argue that even the most sophisticated computer program could be safely assumed to come up with a good assumption about paths taken.

In a 3 turn 9F race, the first call at CT comes at the 1/8 pole after the 1st turn, the second (1/2 mile) call comes on the 2nd turn and the 3/4 and one mile calls before and after the 3rd turf.

When Chuck-Town holds races that\'ll show up later on sheets for track like MON or SAR -- or even in the Breeders Cup sheets _ I\'d like to have more faith in the numbers, especially if I\'m going to have pattern reads vs. simple numbers.

[nicely nicely]

Deadrockstar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well, based on the way the chart calls shape up at
> CT -- a 6F track -- for a 9F race, it\'s difficult
> to argue that even the most sophisticated computer
> program could be safely assumed to come up with a
> good assumption about paths taken.

That\'s why we do not rely solely on the computer program. Not a single computer-generated path is taken for granted.  In the office, when processing the data, we print out each horse\'s trip notes right next to the generated paths. Going line by line through the trip notes, it\'s obvious what needs to be adjusted. I can\'t remember the last race I processed that didn\'t have a manual adjustment.

As well designed as our program is, we never make the assumption that we\'re smarter than reality.

[miff]

TG\'s ground calculations for New York were looked into some time ago and were found to be very accurate overall.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- if you look below, you will see we list all the horses\' recent adjusted first quarters, not just the last three, and bold face the ones run under similar circumstances (dirt route, etc.).