Can You Guys Make Any Sense Out of This???

[Dana666]

This is from the Del mar site: Bruno\'s a sharp guy. I\'m not sure what to make of all this. Anyone have any ideas? Is anyone on this board on-track?

\"Bruno\'s Picks
There has been so much talk about the track that it has become the focal point of the meet, again.

We all thought poly would help but it hasn\'t. We have a pick six carryover coming into this Wednesday card of over $190,000, but the main handicapping focus will not be on the horses but on the track.

What kind of track will we get?

There was talk that they might cut the track back to five inches, but management wasn\'t making any dire predictions. Anywhere between 4 and 5 inches would be powered harrowed.

Last Friday, the cultivator, cut the track and the Friday twilight program was mostly tilted to the inside. Speed or closers that were inside were right there. Fair as far as running styles, but definitely tilted inside.

I made a table of the Track Variants(courtesy of Today\'s Racing Digest) or inherent speed of the track for the first four weeks of the meet and you be the judge:

Date Sprints>>>>>>>>>>>>> Routes
July 22 +2 +12
July 23 +4 +11
July 24(fri) +4(faster late card) X
July 25 +4 X
July 26 +2

July 29 +2 +7
July 30 +3 +12
July 31(FRI) +6 +17
Aug 1 +6 +19
Aug 2 +7 +23

Aug 5 +8 +14
Aug 6 +4 X
Aug 7 (Fri) +5 +13
Aug 8 +5 +12
Aug 9 +12 +15

Aug 12 +6 +17
Aug 13 +6 X
Aug 14 (FRI) +3(track got faster as day went) +11
Aug 15 +7
Aug 16 +5
What do we learn from the chart. Sprints were a +2 through the first six days and then track sped up. You can hear the horse\'s feet pound on the main track in the morning and especially lately. Thus, as the track is worked on it packs down, but it does speed up on Friday evening as the card goes on, so atmospheric conditions play a part. No sun plays a part, also cooler conditions take a part.

I do take exceptions, however, Between August 5 and August 6 the track slowed down and then picked up speed by the end of the week.

August 13 and August 14 a similar occurence took place, a +6 track on Thursday, slowed down to a +3 on Friday(the track variant takes in consideration the types of horses that travel over the course), but that particular day could have been a split variant of +3 and 6.

There seems to be some consistency by looking at the variants, but on the blood and flesh side horses have been reacting with a wide variety of maladies or simple reactions:

One filly ran on one of the slow tracks and came of it wobbly tired and barely being able to stand up while cooling off. one filly, a first time starter was so tired and knocked out she backed off the feed tub for two weeks. One horse came out of a work on a hard track with a chip in a knee. Some simply just came out crabby and tired.

The questions around the track should really be focused on the actual reliability of the track surface itself. We need a surface that is equal to all. We need a track man that understands the surfaces and follows instructions. The cry here is that the Track sup is not doing what he is told from the inventors of the track surface.

We still believe that the track banking is a major issue. Track banking is a must on any track. the lack of is one of the factors in slow times, and jockey tactics.

You can bet your last dollars this track has gotten in a few jockeys heads. You make a move too soon and you pay for it late. You move too late and you simply have too much to do. The race starts at the 1/4 pole here.

Take all these considerations into play and you have massive confusions for the horseplayers, and yet we didn\'t answer how will the track play on Wednesday.

I can bet one thing with the temperatures rising here the last couple of days, as we have had two of the most beautiful, warm days you can never ask for the sunshine and temperatures will surely affect the track.

We have a huge pick 6 carryover at Del Mar:

Race 5 @ dmr: Claiming.
1 - Made For Magic *barn has had a great meet*
3 - Rocket Kitty
7 - Wood Art *will be up closer*
9 - Mikey Bones\"

[HP]

I don\'t know if I can make sense of it...but I played Del Mar last Friday eve...I rarely play it...and I notice so much talk about the poly track and the types of horses and pace, etc.  

I totally ignored all of the \"polytrack talk\" (except for an article by James Quinn that had a list of sires - this is a VERY good list based on what I saw - you can google the article...I think it\'s from last year).  I\'ll tell you my results - not to red board, but just to show that the TG held up pretty well without taking pace or ANYTHING else into account.  

Strictly poly results, no turf - there were lots of short prices early.  I lucked out with a small win bet on Daylight Storm ($14.40).  The horse I liked best on the card on TG won (Dancing Erin $15) - although a $100 horse screwed up my pick 3 in between.  Auntgrace figured in the finale at a short price and I was able to hook up a decent exacta.  

Nothing to brag about but a winning night and I gave no consideration whatsoever to the kinds of things Bruno is referring to here.  Maybe just use the TG and SEND IT IN!  HP

[bellsbendboy]

Cannot comment on the track, or Bruno\'s usual eclectic comments but have played the meet and find that it is as formful as any other.  The TG analysis, other than a few putrid days has been terrific and the basic \'capping factors pace, class, race dynamics etc. still work quite well.

Last Sunday, I played the late four (poorly) and the race winners were at least haveable, especially on larger tickets.

Leg one; an odds on standout won clear.

Leg Two: A well weighted, small field handicap for staters that went to Hollendorfer/Rosario at 7-2.

Leg three: Mullins off the claim from a weak barn, puts the blinkers back on and runs this one in a conditioned claimer rather than an open race and wins with Gomez up at $10.

Leg Four;  A bottom maiden claimer and the sophomore winner raced five times as a 2yo finishing on the board the first four, two in stakes before coming unglued and being put on the shelf.  Given a start over the track, worked back nicely before dropping and this deep closer caught a field with not one but two runoffs!

The pick four returns $3600 for a buck!  bbb

[bellsbendboy]

Bruno\'s selection in the original post, who had raced without distinction August 9th, AND, August 21st, raced on five days rest tonite, winning clear and blowing up the tote board in the process at some 20-1!!!   bbb

[Dana666]

That could have been a 777K pick six single!