ROTW

[OPM]

Let\'s see how good Frankel is tomorrow.  I don\'t see how Trust and Luck can lose since Zadie is not going to run him anymore before the Derby and he should be prime, is the fastest horse and has the rail.  Senor Swinger poses the biggest threat in my opinion.  I also think S. Blitz will run well.  I can\'t take the low odds on the slowest horse in the field, has as good a shot to run out of the money as any horse here. We\'ll see.

[derby1592]

Hello OPM,

I agree with you that Trust N Luck will win if not pressed early but I still want to see him run a big number without an easy lead. He may clear early again but I have a feeling that at least one other horse will be sent with him this time and under some pace pressure and given the recent big efforts and the longer distance, I think he could regress significantly. Of course, he could regress several points and still win from the rail so he is definitely the horse to beat. I want to keep an eye on the track checking for the infamous speed/rail bias that tends to pop up at GP on big race days.

Like you, I also like Senor Swinger as the value in the race and a good key.

Keep in mind that Frankel thinks that Empire Maker is a much better horse than Peace Rules and Peace Rules just ran a 0.5. Also keep in mind how MB improved after Frankel added blinkers. This horse has an explosive line and an explosive trainer which is a powerful combination.

I should probably pass this race from a betting standpoint but I will likely key Senor Swinger in the 1 and 2 slots and hope he can beat one of the two favorites.

If he runs well and loses I will not be too disappointed though. I already have him in Future Pool 1 at 43-1 and I will just double down on him in future pool 2 since he is likely to be at similar odds again if he fails to win today.

Good luck.

Chris

P.S. Even the \"modest\" Hall-of-Fame trainer, Bobby Frankel says that he does not think he can get Peace Rules ready to go the Derby distance off works alone and PR has a good foundation of 2-turn route races and BF is one of the very best off the bench. All of you might want to keep that in mind before making a bet that Ralph Zaidie can do so with Trust N Luck even if he wins for fun today...

[OPM]

As R. N. said last year, there is no way you beat the best horses in the world coming off a two month layoff, so if TNL wins and takes alot of money in the pools, there might be some overlays left.  I believed last year that P. Drift was coming into the race with the best line and that horse was definitely short in the stretch last year.  I firmly agree with you that a race within 4 wks of the big one is necessary.

[derby1592]

Fastest fig in a Derby prep ever???

[TGJB]

At least until they ran the Swale...

[derby1592]

My guess is Midas Eyes in a walk. That was a real sizzler and the track was not even playing fast. Please give out those two figs when you come up with them.

Combine that with Peace Rules and Milwaukee Brew and you would have to say that Bobby Frankel has put himself in another stratosphere as a trainer. He must have went back to his \"swing coach\" for a lesson last month...

The big question now is what will Medaglio D\'Oro run in Dubai?

Get ready for double-digit negative numbers...

Chris

[TGJB]

Just reading that last sentence made my stomach hurt.