ok, since the JC looks like the only real race on the card tomorrow at Belmont, I figured I would take a stab at an analysis for that one.
Sette e Mezzo - tough for me to figure why this one is in this race even though he is very talented. He has the numbers and pattern and pedigree to be a graded stake winning turf horse and here he is against the best of the east coast based older dirt horses. He ran a buried very good number in his first lifetime start which was on the dirt so he CAN run on the dirt. Note that dirt effort seemed to knock him out for an extended period though. He has a chance to pick up a minor piece of this at a price if he jumps up turf to dirt (which is possible given the first lifetime dirt number) but I can\'t see him winning.
Macho Again - He finally ran a decent figure in his last race when he had everything go his way against Rachael. He has a very good pattern and now he has at least 1 figure that makes him competitive for the top spot here BUT, 1) this is his 3rd race in 10 weeks, 2) he flew back and forth to Kentucky both times after his Saratoga races which can take it out of a horse, and 3) He isn\'t a true 1 1/4 horse. He does his best work at 1 1/8 and he may hang a bit in the stretch going the extra 8th of a mile. I think there\'s a decent chance he finishes out of the top 2 spots and the exacta will pay more than it should if he finishes out of it given the West Point money that comes in on this horse.
Summer Bird - Ran a very good figure in the Travers and witht he weight break comes in here several points faster than Macho (although slower than Quality Road who also gets the weight). However, he does have a history of slight reactions to his big efforts. He reacted in the Kentucy Derby (less than expected but still a reaction) to his big figure in the Arkansas Derby. He reacted to his big effort in the Belmont (again small but still a reaction) so its reasonable that he reacts again here after the big number in the Travers. It\'s reasonable that he moves back a point and a half which still puts him ahead of the older horses with the weight but leaves him vulnerable if Quality Road can run his race.
Tizway - Has one number (2 races back) that would make him competitive her but that was going a 1 turn mile. He does have the pedigree to get the distance and we know the Tiznow\'s get alot better with age according to the TGI so this one can\'t be counted out at a price. A real class test for him but if we are getting the right price, it makes sense to use him in the exacta becasue his best is basically the same as Macho\'s best but we will obviously get a much much better price.
Dry Martini - Has some figures to run back to from his 4 and 5 year old campaigns and we know he likes a wet track which is expected tomorrow. However, he hasn\'t run a figure as a 6 year old which would put him in the top spot here and so I think he\'s a play against given he will take alot of money from folks who will play him as a wet track specialist.
Asiatic Boy - Has some good numbers to run back to from earlier this year. He may have had an excuse in the last as he got sick before the Whitney and wasn\'t firing on all cylindars in the Woodward. If that last made him tighter, he could get a pice underneath and again, is very good value compared to Macho and he has more big numbers to run back to. I will use him underneath in the exatca.
Quality Road - Has run 2 figures in here faster than than anyone else\'s best and he gets weight from all except SB. The big questions are whether he really wants 1 1/4 and if he\'s had enough time to fully recover from the monster effort first back at the Spa. I suggested on the board playing against him in the Travers because he didn\'t have the foundation but we can argue that the last gave him the foundation and that he\'s the play in here as the 3rd choice.
So, I will go with
Quality Road over Suummer Bird and protect underneath with Tizway and Asiatic Boy.
Thoughts?
