Arc Video

[BB]

Brilliant ride by Kinane, I thought. Yellow silks. Enjoy.

http://france-galop.empreinte.com/2009/site/kiosque/index.php?lang=en&themeid=4&ref=http://www.prixarcdetriomphe.com/indexEN.html

[TGJB]

At 1 1/2 miles 8 pounds is worth 4 lengths. It\'s not a coincidence that the greatest horse that ever lived this year is almost always a European 3yo-- the scale of weights is different than here.

STS is a very good grass 3yo. Period (so far). He won\'t get 8 pounds if he comes to the BC. He would be a strong contender in the Turf, one of several contenders in the Classic.

[BB]

Understood, but there were many more 3YO \"greatest horse(s) that ever lived this year\" (great line, btw) who didn\'t win six straight group ones. All scales of weight are meant to bring the \"typical\" horses of various age and sex together, yes? Should we penalize StS (and Rachel) in our analysis for being atypical?

How would you handle it? Is there a \"fair\" scale? Or would any scale be inherently unfair?

Thanks.

[TGJB]

I\'m not punishing him, I\'m evaluating him.

The original line, said by a now deceased friend of mine in a bar, was \"she\'s the only woman I have ever loved tonight\".

[BB]

I know what you are doing and, you\'re right, you are not punishing him. But the weights effectively punish Youmzain and the other older ones during the race, then may subsequently \"punish\" (for lack of a better word) an extraordinary 3YO who may or may not have needed the break to win. And I know that the correlation between weights and lengths are proven over time and are, effectively, constants that can be accounted for, whereas \"a confident ride\" and a horse who seems to relax once he makes the lead can not ... yes, it\'s those lyin\' eyes that makes me think this guy is more special than his figures might otherwise indicate.

And regarding your late friend (and this is as far as I\'m going with this aspect of the post as it can do me absolutely no good), was his demise brought about by the only woman he ever loved some other night?

[TGJB]

I guess you could make the case that stomach cancer can be caused by drinking too much, and drinking too much can definitely be caused by...

Don\'t get me wrong-- STS is about as good a grass 3yo as we\'ve seen, on figures. My point is that the margins in Europe are deceptive because of the difference in the WFA conditions. Take a look at the chart of Dancing Brave\'s Arc some time. He was annointed the second coming after winning by 1 1/2 (by memory). There were six older horses in a blanket  behind him-- every one got a better figure than DB after weight adjustment. When DB ran up the track in the turf a whole lot of people said he didn\'t run his race-- on TG he paired his Arc.

Having said that, STS is a much better horse.

[Michael D.]

And remember, he saved all the ground here.

I didn\'t think they would even consider the BC, but the owner says it\'s 50/50 he comes over and runs in the Classic. Gio Ponti is also going in the Classic. Throw in Zenyatta, Rip V, Mastercrafts, Einstein, Summer Bird, Mine That Bird, Richard\'s Kid, Tiago, and one or two recent Godolphin freaks, and we could be looking at one very good horse race.

[miff]

Assuming Zenyatta wins this Sat and goes to the BC Classic, she\'ll take tons of money.Z has a lofty record but is not really faster than several entrants with the same \"one run\" style.

Paint a bullseye on her if she goes to the Classic since she won\'t running down The Sisters Of The Poor on BC day.

Mike

[TGJB]

Michael-- There\'s only one turn, and it\'s not even a full turn. He picked up maybe a 1/4 point. But there is a horse that will get only about 1 point worse than STS that had a 4 3/4 top going in, and another with a 3 1/2 top that will only get a point or two worse. STS definitely went back off his previous one.

Miff-- there\'s also the issue of Z coming from way back in a field that size... my guess is she stays against the girls.

It would be really, really nice to know if the Godolphin horses will be able to run their races in California. Music Note paired up Saturday.

[miff]

JB,

Sheik Mo pretty conservative with his stock but I agree shipping that far, synths and the issue of the whole barn exploding in NY.The horses will at least add bute but tough to know if they will not have something which they had back east.I\'m fairly sure you have that possibility open.

Will say that most of the Sheiks\' recent winners had shown prior ability, so I\'m not that surprised at the recent results.Fig wise,I saw many new tops but several were purchased out of big fig wins last year, were a year older and had license to get faster.

I\'d probably be looking for a few of them to be over the top or compromised by the ship/surface.

RE Z, if she is alright and does not go in the Classic, then the connections deserve to be criticized.No ship,a surface she loves, why not?. What will it prove for her to probably crush most of the same sorry common FM bunch.

If she goes Classic, and gets beat, that does not diminish her accomplishments one bit imo and if she wins they can call her a HOY candidate(Rachel has that locked imo)


Mike

[tmon]

There\'s an extra week this year between the ARC and the Breeders Cup. I follow British/Irish racing quite a bit and I think the decision is up to the trainer with this horse and ownership.

[sighthound]

Any point for that uphill climb?  The Arc isn\'t exactly twice around Belmont.

[TGJB]

They all go uphill. They all get exactly the same amount of credit, it\'s built into the figure. That\'s what making figures is about.

[sighthound]

I was wondering if yes, you did build something in for the hill (that specific course), and/or other European course idiosyncracies, compared to, say, a turf route at CD, Belmont, etc.

Sort of a \"degree of difficulty\" type of thing ....

[BB]

Tmon, I don\'t think Oxx is 50/50 on it. How do you read him?