Initial thoughts on the BC

[covelj70]

P-Dub\'s right, let\'s get down to some hanciapping:

I\'ll throw some stuff out based on my first 5 passes on the sheets,

1) Holy Jesus is Summer Bird fast.  This dude doesn\'t get enough credit.  He\'s freaky fast and has danced every 3 year old dance there is to dance.  What do we think about his ability to handle the pro ride?  I believe he is a lighter framed horse as opposed to a curlin like monster (please correct me if I am wrong about this) and the lighter horses tend to get over this pro-ride better.  He is sort of tweener in terms of high cruising speed types such as Indian Blessing and Curlin who don\'t like the pro ride and the Ventura, Midnight Lute huge turn of foot.  I don\'t have a good feel for how he will handle the track but if he handles it, there\'s no one in the Classic that can touch this horse.  Thoughts?

2) I\'ve said this before but the sheet read confirmed it, Zensational is one of the all time bet againsts in the Sprint.  He\'s one of the slowest horses in the race (not by alot but he\'s slow for these) and while his pattern is good so he could move forward, race shapes works against him here and so we have to play against him if he is the heavy fav as expected.

3) I ALWAYS go with the Euros in the turf races for the Breeders Cup but this Interactif just looks absolutely freaky on the sheets and visusally.  I made him the most likely winner on the card.

4) It looks like there is some real value to be had in the Juv Fillies race as the favorites are deifnitely not the fastest.  Connie and Michael (another freak) and Biofuel both look great in here and are both a price.

There\'s lots more to say but let\'s see if that gets us going?

[P-Dub]

A question about the slower horses (Zensational, Juv Filles), does the Pro-Ride surface lend itself to slightly slower figures due to the race shape?? Kind of how turf horses aren\'t as fast as dirt horses??

If true, would you consider adjusting (and I don\'t know how to quantify that) dirt numbers considering that we will be racing on Pro-Ride? Would you expect a horse to duplicate a -1 dirt number and run that same number on Pro-Ride?

Or am I making too much out of this, and should take the numbers at face value regardless of what surface they were earned?

[Michael D.]

Jim,

I\'m not sure Zen is gonna be the big fave in the sprint. Everyone will be looking to bet Godolphin, and everyone will be looking to bet Gomez. Wouldn\'t be surprised if Gayego winds up a slight favorite over Z. I\'m having a tough time slicing that one below 5 runners. Both Gayego and CCC are dangerous from off the pace, but neither is fast enough to close 5 wide. I bet the Euro filly in the trf sprint last year, and just can\'t leave her off this year, despite the slowish figures. And you have to figure either FB or Zen is going to hang tough late, as there doesn\'t appear to be enough pace to bury both.

In the f&m turf, I was looking to bet against FT, as I don\'t think she\'s a true 10f runner. Last year\'s running was essentially a quarter mile sprint to the wire. Problem is, there is zero speed signed up again this year, and most of the runners look like 2\'s at best.

So I\'ve looked at 2 races, and I\'m 5 deep in the sprint, and stuck on a 2-1 shot that I don\'t even like in the F&M turf. Help!

[covelj70]

Mike D,

you\'re last line is an absolute classic, LMAO.

Speed is death on the pro ride spriting and I think Z and FB will keep one another just busy enough up front that the trends will hold.

I think CCC and Gayego are the plays.  I will feel good about getting through the multirace plays with just those 2.  Still time for me to mess this up but I feel good about that now.

On the F&M turf, I like Midday.  Many of the Oasis Dream\'s move up on the firm turf so with the Lasix and the firm turf, I am going with Midday on top in this one.  Magical Fantasy is my second choice.  She\'s never gone backwards and we know she loves the track.  Vist (another Oasis Dream who likes it firm and who has never taken a step backward is my third choice).  I just think FT is going in the wrong direction this year after coming into the race last year in great form.

[covelj70]

P-Dub,

great questions.  No one-sized fits all answers after much debate on the topic.

Some horses jump up syn to dirt, others don\'t.  Some can replicate their dirt form on the syn, others don\'t.  AND, each syn is different with pro ride tending to play more like turf while the cushion track plays a bit more like dirt.

We have to take each horse an an individual and see what their running style and body types are as this plays into the issue.

Curlin and Indian Blessing were both much the best on the sheets with their dirt form last year but both have/had high cruising speed type running styles that tends not to be rewarded on the pro ride.  The pro ride tends to reward that one big explosive type kick that horses such as Ventura and Midnight Lute have/had.  Midnight Lute is a horse that was able to replicate his massive dirt figure in 07 BC again in 08 on the pro ride.  He was the big turn of foot type horse that you would expect would be able to do that.

Again, this isn\'t an exact science so I don\'t pretend that this is any kind of definitive word or anything, this is just how I have thought about it and it worked well last year At SA for the BC.

Most simple thing for me when trying to translate dirt form to pro ride is what kind of running style the horse has.  The more explosive kick, the more likely to replicate dirt form on pro ride, the more one paced, high cruising speed, the less likely.

[Funny Cide]

For what it\'s worth, I read on a forum that Crisford said that if he could bet only one of the Godolphin entries, it\'d be Gayego.

If he works well over the track, Kodiak Kowboy may be my top pick.  He\'s proven class with the right running style for this race.  Even if the track doesn\'t play like it did last year with a decided bias against the speed, I still don\'t like Zensational here at all.  He can run rank against the cupcakes he\'s met thus far but it won\'t work so well when he\'s eyeballing some quality speed.

[covelj70]

Funny Cide,

I totally hear you on Kodiak Kowboy and that call makes a ton of sense but I wouldn\'t let how he works over the track influence you one way or the other.  

Breezes over the pro ride are absolutely no indication of how they will run in the afternoon over it.  I have first hand experience with this.  I had a filly who breezed brialliantly in the AM and Bejarano who breezed her said she loved the track and then came back from her race on the pro ride and said she spun her wheels all the way around.

First of all, the pro ride changes alot from the mornings to the afternoon with the temperature.  Second, every rider and trainer out there has told me that when you are just letting them go easy in the morning, it\'s very different than when they are really trying to push off of that stuff in a race.

So, I am definitely not trying to talk you off KK, his figures are big and he does have the kind of style that could translate as you say.  I am just trying to talk you off of using the breeze as any kind of gauge.

Great luck man!

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike D,
>
> you\'re last line is an absolute classic, LMAO.
>
> Speed is death on the pro ride spriting and I
> think Z and FB will keep one another just busy
> enough up front that the trends will hold.
>
> I think CCC and Gayego are the plays.  I will feel
> good about getting through the multirace plays
> with just those 2.  Still time for me to mess this
> up but I feel good about that now.


at the end of the day I\'ll likely be with you here - CCC and Gayego in the pk\'s.

 
> On the F&M turf, I like Midday.  Many of the Oasis
> Dream\'s move up on the firm turf so with the Lasix
> and the firm turf, I am going with Midday on top
> in this one.  Magical Fantasy is my second choice.
>  She\'s never gone backwards and we know she loves
> the track.  Vist (another Oasis Dream who likes it
> firm and who has never taken a step backward is my
> third choice).  I just think FT is going in the
> wrong direction this year after coming into the
> race last year in great form.


I\'ve been a big fan of Midday all year. I think I bet her in the Oaks. I handicapped her more as a long-winded runner that won\'t be so effective in a paceless race over the rock hard course. not nearly enough info to be confident in that call though (and, as you say, many OD\'s prefer it firm).

[RICH]

trainer on sporting life says the same, horse wants very firm turf, just like at SA, like him alot, the 3yr old after labor day angle, if my memory serves.

[Funny Cide]

I agree with you, Covel, though I do think it\'d influence me into not liking his chances if I hear he\'s not working well over the surface.  

Someone in another thread didn\'t want to hear anymore griping but I\'m looking forward to next year when this thing gets back on the dirt.  I\'m hearing that the a coup is expected next year in the organization as well and anticipate some sensible minds to restore this championship day to a semblence of a championship day.

[miff]

For horses that have never raced on synths,one thing you want to see is how they handle the surface. It\'s not that important how fast they go but how well they move.


Mike

[covelj70]

I hear ya Mike but again, how they move over it in the morning and when they aren\'t really being pushed is not neceassirly a great indicator of how they move over it in the afternoons and when they are being asked.

[HP]

Who is going to prepare a report on this from SA for the rest of us who will not be watching the morning workouts (since the reported time of those workouts are not really what we are looking for)?  

HP

[miff]

Cov,

Thanks, it\'s kinda \"out there\" now re morning works vs afternoon performance. You can\'t go wrong checking out the comments of the Cali clockers who have exceptional eyes watching new arrivals move over the various Cali synths. Would not consider serious bets without checking out comments on works on new synth runners.




Mike

[TGJB]

I\'ve worked out a deal to get some of those clocker comments early, and will be referring to them in my comments and the seminar. I have to record by Tues, so obviously won\'t have everything, but it should be a plus.