Okay, look.

[Lost Cause]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> You chose to \"drop\" Zenyatta into the Woodward,
> which was likely Rachel\'s worst race of the
> campaign, from a performance perspective.

To me that was Rachel\'s best performance of the year.  She was under pace pressure every step of that race and still came out on top by gutting it out the last 1/16th.

Two great mares with unfortunately two extremely different running styles so even if they did race each other it would not settle anything because the other would have an excuse for losing.  
The only possible case where there would be a \"true winner\" would be if Rachel got out to an easy lead and still got beat by Zenyatta or Rachel burned it up in a fast pace and still won easy. Any other case and there would be an excuse for the loser.

Honestly, who cares about HOY?  That won\'t change my respect for each horse either way.  

I have no issue with the pro ride surface during regular race days at SA as for the most part it is synth horses vs. Synth horses.  But to call that a championship day of racing is not correct because the dirt horses did not run up to their ability at all.  I came up just a little short of even for the two days but only because of the turf races.  The \"synth\" races were a toss up..

[miff]

The Zenyatta fans want to ignore speed figs, okie dokie.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> You chose to \"drop\" Zenyatta into the Woodward,
> which was likely Rachel\'s worst race of the
> campaign, from a performance perspective.


The Woodward was not one of Rachel\'s worst races. The figure may have been slower, but that\'s because she wasn\'t running against 3 yr old fillies with 70 and 80 Beyers. Running against 6 fillies with 70 Beyers often inflates one\'s speed figure. Rachel came into the Woodward on perfect rest and gave it everything she had. A race indicative of true ability imo.  

> Put Zenyatta in the Oaks race that Rachel ran, or
> the Haskell, and she isn\'t within shouting
> distance, let alone winning \"wrapped up\".


In my opinion, there is no horse in America that would have beaten Rachel on Haskell day. Chalk one up for Rachel. At the same time, most agree that Zen would have inhaled RA in the stretch of the Classic. Knowing what we know today, you couldn\'t get 1-5 on Zen in that head to head. And sure Jim, Zenyatta couldn\'t have around that ultra quick CD surface in 1:48.87 that day (Oaks). Even better, she wouldn\'t have been within shouting distance. Zenyatta would have run around that CD oval in 1:51 that day, right? Or do you think it would have been 1:52? 1:53? What\'s shouting distance?

This is all nothing more than one\'s opinion Jim. That\'s why I lead off with \"here\'s my opinion\". Pure speculation. Sad part is, personal opinion and speculation are going to decide horse of the year.

[TGJB]

Michael-- based on Rachel\'s top (3) as a 2yo on poly, if she had come into the race rested, at weight for age, I would have laid about as much of that 1/5 as anyone wanted to take. That would have been all-in time for me.

[Lost Cause]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- based on Rachel\'s top (3) as a 2yo on
> poly, if she had come into the race rested, at
> weight for age, I would have laid about as much of
> that 1/5 as anyone wanted to take. That would have
> been all-in time for me.


I think you would have probably lost a show bet in that instance...She can\'t run hard early and outfinish Zenyatta at 1 1/4 on that track..Just my opinion based on what i\'ve seen.

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- based on Rachel\'s top (3) as a 2yo on
> poly, if she had come into the race rested, at
> weight for age, I would have laid about as much of
> that 1/5 as anyone wanted to take. That would have
> been all-in time for me.


And you\'re more than entitled to that opinion Jerry, especially since you used that type of analysis to try and purchase the filly long before she was Rachel The Great.

Great discussion.

[TGJB]

Speaking of which...

Turns out there is this idea in law that someone is not supposed to be allowed to keep ill-gotten gains, which involves something called disgorgement of profit...

Trial date is April 6th. I\'ll be in Kentucky for Blue Grass weekend.

[FrankD.]

Conquistador Cielo or DR. Fager could not run a mile on the lead on pro-ride and be there at the end !

It is not the place to hold a championship event. Look at all the Goldphin horses who ran amazing numbers at Saratoga & Belmont who did nothing. All were pointed for the cup, arrived in California early 4-6 weeks to get acclimated and came up empty.

If Zenyatta ran in the ladies classic you would have had to bet Music Note if you ever looked at a sheet in your life. Tell me that Sara Louise, Pyro & Coco Beach are not Grade 1 animals ?

[SoCalMan2]

I think the correct legal term is -- unjust enrichment.  Probably not a bad name for a racehorse either.

[SoCalMan2]

I should have also said, \"Good Luck\"  I am sure I speak for many when I say we are rooting for you.

[TGJB]

Unjust enrichment, quantum meruit, and Kentucky trade secrets act violation are three of our claims. That last one carries disgorgement of profits plus an equal amount in penalties.

[richiebee]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
 
> Rachel had an extremely ambitious campaign.
> Period.  Name another filly that ever campaigned
> like she did this year.  Saying she beat weak 3
> year old colts is borderline ridiculous and
> incredulous.  Summer Bird is one of the best 3
> year olds of the last 5 years.  He has run
> negative 3\'s and 4\'s.  Coincidence that when he
> ran against Rachel, he looked ordinary?  He didn\'t
> like the wet track?  Wrong, He ran a negative 4 on
> the wet track.  The connections were clear from
> the beginning, they would do anything, but run on
> plastic.  Kudos to Jess Jackson for sticking with
> that.  Plastic tracks are for the birds.  Rachel
> won the Oaks, Preakness, Haskell, Travers and the
> Woodward.
>
> Zenyatta beat a bunch of tin cans all year, then
> stepped up on a big stage and won the BC Classic.
> She gets plenty of credit for that, but it pales
> compared to the resume of Rachel.
>
> Richiebee,
>
> I have read most of your posts for the last 5
> years and they are always good and usually
> hysterical.  But I can\'t believe what you wrote
> here.  Thank god you don\'t have a vote.  One race
> = HOY?  No way.
>
> I am not the head of the Rachel fan club, I am a
> gambler and have been stupid/stubborn enough to
> bet against both Zenyatta and Rachel all year
> long, but objectively looking at their records, I
> can\'t believe the vote will be even close.

Jim:

Zenyatta is undefeated, and the first female winner of the BC Classic. Based on
that she will get plenty of votes which are provincial and/or sentimental. Right
or wrong, that is the reality of the situation. A lot of the folks given Eclipse
votes do not take performance figures into account.

I believe you overrate Summer Bird and the rest of this years 3YO crap. And as I
mentioned in the previous post, RA never faced Quality Road or I Want Revenge,
the powerful entry from the Jimbo Derby Future wager.

My opinion is that Mine That Bird and Summer Bird will not win another graded
stakes in their careers.

I think I am being pretty fair to the Zen Mistress, considering her victory cost
me between $6000 - $7000 Saturday, the will pays on the $4 Pick 4s (actually $1
P4s times 4) I was alive with to 5 runners in the Classic, including the 2nd and
3rd place finishers. As the kids today might say, \"Classic Fail\".

[FrankD.]

How could you ever be on this site and not have played Zenyatta among 5 plays in the last leg of a pick 4

I\'m anti her for horse of the year, but if you ever read a sheet she was a must play especially if your going 5 deep in a pick. Her pro-ride races were simply too Good to leave out ?

[jimbo66]

Frank D,

I know lots of people that didn\'t play Zenyatta.  Plenty of \"sheet readers\".

You have to see an overall ticket, before you question a strategy.  If you have a ticket that included Conduit and Goldikova, you need to find value somewhere.  Playing the pick-4 and playing all chalk isn\'t a great strategy.

If you were tossing Conduit or Goldikova (as I did and I am sure others may have), then I think it is a different story in that you should have Zenyatta covered.

Anyway, everybody has their own overall strategy when playing these pick-4\'s, but this gambler will never have a ticket in the pick-4 where all four chalks are part of the ticket (if they are that good, then I am not playing it...)

JIm

[FrankD.]

I tossed Goldikova and used a couple of otehrs besides Conduit !