Jim;
Regarding last year, as I remember it, Zenyatta was the only other horse that was getting strong HOY consideration. But even though she won a G1 on dirt, the vote wasn\'t close because Curlin earned it by going outside his comfort zone (losing on grass & pro-ride) and having a huge year on dirt. Had Z won the \'08 Classic instead of the Distaff, I think she wins it. Yes, it matters ... a lot.
But while the Classic is a very important consideration, it ain\'t the only consideration. If it were, then Arcangues, Pleasantly Perfect and Volponi would have been HOY winners (and, hey, come to think of it, since the Fix-Six likely would not have been uncovered if Medaglia d\' Oro had won the Classic, maybe Volponi should have been HOY).
The thing I hate about all awards is not that they often wind up being political (negative) campaigns, but that they are so frequently wrong (see Favorite Trick and any number of \"Best Picture\" awards). They are an artificial construct that represent man\'s strange obsession with ranking things and add no value to the shared experience. While I would prefer that Rachel win the HOY, I really don\'t care one way or another because that honor won\'t make me think any more highly of her. Nor would it make me think any less of Zenyatta. I think this discussion only drags down the entire enterprise (and I\'ll make this my last post on HOY). What I\'ll care to remember years from now is not which one won the \'09 HOY, but the awe and wonder that these two sparked, whether I was in that rattling Saratoga grandstand on Woodward day, or watching the Classic in my quiet country house, and finding myself strangely short of breath, while my dogs slept.
Bob