For Kent Smith

[mjellish]

Ok Kent,

I don\'t know why I am so irritated by your posts about how it is impossible to be a pro Horseplayer.  I was planning to just let it go, but it really irritated me.

By your logic, it is impossible to overcome the takeout.  The longer you play, the more you are going to lose.

By my logic, since this is parimutuel wagering and it is you against the other players, a player that is better than the other players can overcome the takeout and be a winner.

As I said in an earlier post this week, I am not currently playing any horse tracks seriously.  But I have been following Gulfstream, Oaklawn and SA.  I happened to have this afternoon free to burn, so for grins and giggles I decided to try an experiment on Gulfstream today to see if I could prove a point to you.  Here were my ground rules.  I have to play every race (the longer I play the more I will lose).  I can, however, stick to my basic betting principals of looking for value and betting bigger when I see it.  Since I was more or less just horsing around, I punched out a series of small tickets on races 4-8. Here are the results:

Race 4 1M 10000CLM N3L

#7 One Hot Toddy looks like the most consistent horse, trouble is he is also the favorite at 8/5 and is an underlay.  #1 Upmarket Girl is on the board at 5-1 and looks like she may improve getting back on real dirt, so there may be a little value there but not much.  #4 Janou is 7/2 and may be good enough to win, but is also an underlay.  Everyone else looks like junk.  Not a good race to bet, but since I have to I will key the 7 over the 1-4 in exactas that are proportional to their will pays.  So the bet is:
$6 EX 7-4
$2 EX 7-1

Result is loss of $8 when the #1 wires the field and holds off the 7.

Race 5 1 1/16 MDSWT on the Turf

#6 The Great McGee is sitting on the board at 20-1, has a front running style in pace less race, competitive figs, a decent turf pedigree and one prior turf race that wasn\'t bad.  The fact that he is 20-1 makes him an obvious key of significant value.  So we bet him to win and play him underneath the 10, 12, & 13 which look like the only competition.  So the bet is
$15 Win 6
$3 EX 10,12,13 / 6

Result is a net profit of $141 when #6 The Great McGee just barely gets nipped by a head or so at the wire by the 9/5 favorite #13.  Had our horse won we would have made twice as much, but we still cash and have nothing to complain about.

Race 6 Diana Beach Handicap 100k on the Turf

The favorites look tough here.  #4 Nordic Truth is a very impressive maiden winner trained by an ace on the grass and stepping up in class.  But he is 2-1 on the board and still eligible for N1X, so he is an underlay.  #7 Bim Bam is coming out of a restricted 100k stakes at Calder where he just set a new stakes record, but he isn\'t really offering any significant value at 7/2. This is therefore a bad race to bet because the favorites look solid but don\'t offer value.  But we have to bet, right?  #10 Call Shot may offer some value at 10-1 if he takes to the turf.  And #11 Raging Wit is 6-1, trained by Bill Mott and looks like he could pull off the upset on his best day.  I decide to key one of the favorites and pick the #7 since he has the better odds.  But I decide to key him underneath in EX only because he offers no value to win or on top.  So the bet is a simple one.

$2 EX 4,10,11 / 7    

Result is the #7 gets nipped on the wire by the #4.  Exacta pays $29.60.  Net profit for this race is therefore $23.60


Race 7  1 1/8 CLM20000 N3L

#5 Polished is trained by ace Carl Nafzger and looks deadly in this spot.  He is fresh, coming off a win, in proper company and on the board at 2-1, which seems about right given I make him 9/5 to win the race.  The 7,9,10 seem to be the only other contenders.  So we will bet the 5 to win and key the #5 under the 7,9,10 proportionally so we still grind it out and make some money if this cheapie turns out to have no heart and gets nipped on the wire.  So the bet is:

$25 Win 5
$5 EX 7,9 / 5
$1 EX 10 / 5

Result
#5 wins easily and even survives a frivolous claim of foul.  Net profit for the race is $41.50


Race #8 1 1/16th Marshua\'s River Stakes 100k on the Turf

This is a very contentious race.  There are 5 or 6 that could easily win this and perhaps a few more if they get the right trip on their best day.  So we have to look for value.  #11 Quiet Harbor is a confirmed grade 3 winner on a 4 race win streak and is somehow on the board at 18-1.  So we definitely have value there.  #13 Backseat Rhythm is on the board at 7-1 and is a confirmed Grade 1 winner that is coming off a 6 month layoff after running into tough times this past summer.  She is also switching to Tricky Dick Dutrow, who is deadly the first time out with new comers to the barn.  Her works look solid and steady going back to November, and if she improves or comes back to her past form she is going to unbeatable.  Since both these horses have good odds and offer strong value and the race is contentious this is a good race to bet.  We can even spread a bit with the other main contenders, the 1,2,4,& 6.  We bet our two horses to win and then also bet them both ways in the exacta in case we are dead right so we can crush the race.  So the bet is this.

$10 Win #11
$15 Win #13
$2 EX  11,12 / 1,2,4,6,11,13
$3 EX 1,2,6 / 11, 13
$1 EX 4,11,13 / 11, 13

Result
#11 Quiet Harbor gets up to win for us at 18-1, and #6 Lady Shakespeare manages to dead heat for 2nd so we hit the exacta as well.  Had the #6 won second outright we would have collected a much larger exacta payout, but we aren\'t going to complain.  Net profit for this race is $263.40.

So our net profit for the day winds up being $443.50.

Now that shows you how good handicapping and solid betting principals can help a player overcome the takeout.  And just imagine what can be done if you also have good clocker info, are doing nothing but following the horses, do all of the homework to make your own trainer profiles and figures, buy supplemental figures and data as needed,etc.  It\'s not that impossible to win at this.  But it\'s not easy either.

So enjoy your view from your box all you want.  But don\'t force your nonsense viewpoints on people who know better.

And by the way, here is receipt copy of my betting ledger through Twinspires.com in case you don\'t believe me.

COMPLETED: 02350076596834 GP #4 $6 Exacta 7,WT,4 $ 6.00 $ 0.00 - $ 6.00
COMPLETED: 55486234626325 GP #4 $2 Exacta 7,WT,1 $ 2.00 $ 0.00 - $ 2.00
COMPLETED: 22707431503998 GP #5 $15 Win 6 $ 15.00 $ 0.00 - $ 15.00
COMPLETED: 33918382862080 GP #5 $3 Exacta 10,12,13,​WT,6 $ 9.00 $ 150.00 + $ 141.00
COMPLETED: 86753775807365 GP #6 $2 Exacta 4,10,11,​WT,7 $ 6.00 $ 29.60 + $ 23.60
COMPLETED: 92146547300898 GP #7 $1 Exacta 7,9,10,​WT,5 $ 3.00 $ 0.00 - $ 3.00
COMPLETED: 25760163319999 GP #7 $4 Exacta 7,9,WT,5 $ 8.00 $ 0.00 - $ 8.00
COMPLETED: 12180482814675 GP #7 $25 Win 5 $ 25.00 $ 77.50 + $ 52.50
COMPLETED: 53318142279730 GP #8 $1 Exacta 1,2,4,6,11,​WT,13 $ 5.00 $ 0.00 - $ 5.00
COMPLETED: 58045914440505 GP #8 $2 Exacta 1,2,6,​WT,13 $ 6.00 $ 0.00 - $ 6.00
COMPLETED: 18362136276247 GP #8 $1 Exacta 1,2,4,6,13,​WT,11 $ 5.00 $ 0.00 - $ 5.00
COMPLETED: 56682476015871 GP #8 $2 Exacta 1,2,6,​WT,11 $ 6.00 $ 0.00 - $ 6.00
COMPLETED: 36254241808815 GP #8 $2 Exacta 11,13,​WT,1,2,4,6,11,13 $ 20.00 $ 133.40 + $ 113.40
COMPLETED: 72640570055932 GP #8 $10 Win 11,13 $ 20.00 $ 197.00 + $ 177.00
COMPLETED: 41422054812487 GP #8 $5 Win 13 $ 5.00 $ 0.00 - $ 5.00

[jack72906]

Beautiful MJ! Beat me to it. Here\'s my day at Gulfstream:

COMPLETED: 71160856665063 GP     #6     $5 Pick-3     7,&;WT,5,& ;WT,11           $ 5.00      $ 0.00     - $ 5.00
COMPLETED: 45473996718168 GP    #6    $2 Pick-3    7,11,&;WT,5,&;WT,11        $ 4.00    $ 0.00    - $ 4.00
COMPLETED: 54992239101813 GP    #6    $2 Pick-3    7,&;WT,5,6,7,8,&;WT,11        $ 8.00    $ 0.00    - $ 8.00
COMPLETED: 39048578513877 GP     #7     $3 Pick-4     5,&;WT,11,&;WT,7,&;WT,6,10           $ 6.00      $ 0.00     - $ 6.00
COMPLETED: 19404858840734  GP     #7  $1 Pick-4     5,&;WT,1,5,11,12,&;WT,7,&;WT,6,10           $ 8.00      $ 0.00     - $ 8.00
COMPLETED: 16181312482574  GP     #7  $1 Pick-4     5,&;WT,11,&;WT,6,7,&;WT,6,10           $ 4.00      $ 0.00     - $ 4.00




COMPLETED: 99987084743954GP#9$6 Exacta  11,WT,6,7  $ 12.00 78.60 + $ 66.60

COMPLETED: 04981768604944GP#5$2 Exacta13,&;WT,3,6,10 6.00 100.00  + $ 94.00

COMPLETED: 87477107300898  GP#10  $2 Exacta  6,10,WT,4 $ 4.00  $ 30.00 + $ 26.0

I have to admit that it was a tough day as I missed a Pick3 x9 in races 6-7-8 because I singled Bim Bam and he got nipped at the wire and I missed the Pick 4 x4 because I didn\'t use Todd Got Even. I also missed the early Pick 3 x3 because of the 99-1 shot. Looks like I should have played the Pick 6. Profitable day though. I LOVED Quiet Harbor today.

[mjellish]

Yeah, I couldn\'t believe she went off at 18-1.  Guess she just got overlooked.  Hell, maybe I should get back into this...

I don\'t know who this Kent Smith guy is, but it is very scary to think that he made it through med school.  He just doesn\'t get it.  Sure there is a take out, and the higher it is the tougher it is to win.  But that does not mean it can\'t be done.  You just have to be that much better than everyone else.

Hell, by his logic, all the world would have to do is wait for pick 6 carryovers that are large enough to negate the takeout entirely and flip the pool positive, which is something that happens nearly every week, especially where the pick 6 daily handle is small.  If we kept playing into those situations then according to Ken we could all expect to eventually win whatever that positive percentage is without regard to handicapping.  

Pure B.S.

A game of pure chance?  

I would love to sit down with this guy and play against him heads-up for even money.  He picks a horse.  I pick a horse.  We each throw in a hundred bucks.  Whoever picks the horse that finishes best takes the whole $200 but they have to donate 17%, or $34 to the charity of their choice.  We do that ten times a day for a year.  Let\'s see if one of us winds up a winner along with the charity.

[smithkent]

Gee-touched a sensitive nerve here didn\'t I.

Sorry guys- you\'re results are anecdotal.  Small sample sizes.  

I\'m happy you had a good day at the windows today- I\'ve had my good days too.  Just be as truthful about your losses mjellish

That\'s what is lacking in the netherworld of horseplayers and handicappers- people who will give you their wins *and* losses over a long period of time.  Anybody can have a day with some tickets to cash.

Actually, to be fair, Crist will outline his choices and results on his blog, especially on big race days.  I do find his exotic ticket methods interesting, but still ultimately doomed.  If you read his autobiography, even he tried to be a \"pro\" for awhile, before he bought the DRF.  His feeling is that trying to make a real living out at the track is a questionable proposition.  He\'s even the guy who has some pick-6 wins.  Note that he makes a living supporting the horseplayers with data, news, books, etc.  Not as a professional horseplayer.  Because he is the first to tell you that takeout is what kills your chances.

But for all you believers,

Keep up the good work...

[lukiladi]

Mr.Smith,

Your dogmatic views are not surprising given your stated profession, and against all sound reason here are my two cents.

Say I am a win only bettor and make my own betting line. I will only place a wager when the public line is 50% greater than my line - hence creating a overlay in my opinion. I will NEVER place a wager unless that situation occurs. Therefore the determining factor of my wagering success or failure will be the accuracy of my betting line vs. the public - the takeout will be IRRELEVANT. The public odds are already Net Takeout, so the takeout will only affect how many plays occur.

This is a grind it out style - but the logic is not refutable. Again the premise is that I am BETTER than the public and adhere to the discipline of the method, and if I am not better on average than the public I will lose. Not because of the takeout, but because I am a below average handicapper.
Capital markets are not always efficient, and public sentiment can be affected by many factors that lead to the over valuation or undervaluation of assets or commodities(or horses).

Not available here, but betting exchanges are a perfect market for the above. The rounded percentage on the \"back\" side for horses in a fairly liquid market can be in the 102%-105% range - well below the 16%-18% in a mutuel pool. You can also take the other side against well backed favorites and \"lay\" the price.

Take it for what you will, but your blanket assertions are rather amusing and I personally think that because you don\'t win it makes it easier for you to believe that there is no such animal as a profitable horseplayer.

MJ- Your record on this board before the BB Derby and the subsequent results stands on their own - you don\'t have to post your betting records.

[mjellish]

Kent,

There are very, very few people who ever say anything that I let get to me.  I don\'t know why you bother me so much.  Perhaps it\'s because in essence, by saying what you are saying, you are either implying that I am lying,nuts or lucky.  I know people who have played the horses for a living for over a decade.  Is that a large enough sample size for you?

Would you be willing to take my bet and play me heads up picking horses for $100 each.  We can donate 17% of the handle to charity.  We play five days per week for a year.  I would need about a month to get ready, say we start March 1.  If Jerry gave us his permission perhaps we could even use this board.  Let\'s see if I can beat that game.  You\'re a Dr.  You\'ve got plenty of $$, right?

If not, if you are unwilling to put your money where you keystroke, then my suggestion is that you move on and post your opinions on another board.  I suggest www.jadedobstinatepeople.com.  

I also suggest that you play the pick 6 at Fairgrounds today.  There is a $5,000 carryover that is probably going to attract about $5,000 in plays today.  You will therefore be playing into a positive take out situation today.  By your logic you should be able to win at that over time no matter how good you are at handicapping.

Good luck to you in life.

[Leamas57]

Please explain to me how a pick-6 can have a positive return.

I understand that they can\'t takeout twice, but don\'t get how the contribution of the new monies doesn\'t create some incremental new rake.

Leamas

[mjellish]

Simple.  Let\'s say there is $5k carryover.  That means that people who played yesterday lost, and now that money is still in the kitty.

So now today, you are at the track and play the pick 6.  You bet into today\'s pool along with the rest of the crowd.  Total wagered today is another $5k.  Takeout is 25%, So the track is going to take 25% of today\'s $5K handle, or $1250, off the top, leaving $3750 to be returned to betters.  But wait, we have to add in the carryover from yesterday, which is still $5k.  So the total to be returned to betters today is $3750 + $5,000 = $8750, and there was only $5k bet today.  So everyone that plays today is betting into a positive take out situation because you are playing for the money bet today and the money that everyone lost yesterday.

Happens nearly every day, especially at small tracks where the pick 6 handle is relatively small.

[Rick B.]

lukiladi Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mr.Smith,
>
> Your dogmatic views are not surprising given your
> stated profession, and against all sound reason
> here are my two cents.
 
> Take it for what you will, but your blanket
> assertions are rather amusing and I personally
> think that because you don\'t win it makes it
> easier for you to believe that there is no such
> animal as a profitable horseplayer.

Bingo! Beat me to it.

What if this guy conducts his medical practice in similar dogmatic fashion? I couldn\'t imagine being his patient:

\"Well, I\'ve checked the numbers, and frankly Mr. Belanski -- I can\'t cure you, so you\'re as good as DEAD. Don\'t bother with any second opinions or anything -- I have a fine education and 30 years of experience, so I know I\'m right. I\'ve never been able to cure anyone with your condition before...so you\'re just going to have to accept the fact that you are going to die. Please see the receptionist on your way out...\"

[mandown]

And in medical terms doesn\'t \'regression to the norm\' mean that one day we\'re all dead so any treatment ultimately ends in failure? That\'s one takeout that is impossible to beat.

[BitPlayer]

mjellish -

Really enjoy your posts, but I have a (perhaps semantic) nit with this one.  My view is that the risk of a carryover (which is huge in the situation you describe) should be viewed as part of the takeout.

[Leamas57]

I see what you mean, thanks. I felt stupid for a second, but I am not shy about that. No wonder the big players get out the suitcases for carryovers...

[msola1]

mjellish,

Thanks for a very enlightening post. I have a question for you: can you give me some insights into how you approach doing a trainer profile? What kinds of things do you note? What kinds of patterns do you look for? How do you organize the data? Etc.

Thanks,

Mike in lonely western Massachusetts (nearest track Suffolk)

[mjellish]

Start out by saving every winning horse from your circuit.  File those alphabetically by trainer.  Make sure to note final post time odds, and write a quick note about what you thought of the horse before the race, how it ran or any other piece of info that you think is important.  Also save and include any horse from a trainer that runs significantly better than you think they should have and make a note about the same stuff I already mentioned.

If you keep filing these alphabetically, you will wind up with a profile of a trainer\'s winning horses and the one\'s that run well.  Now you can start to look for patterns.  Does this trainer win on the stretch out, cut back, up in class, down in class, 2nd off layoff, first time starter, 2nd time starter, which jockey or jockey\'s are his go to people, does he ship in or out when he has a horse ready to go, how do they do with recent claims...  You can also look at the workout patterns for their winners and compare them to future starters.  This can be an especially profitable angle when looking at a first time starter or a young horse.  Some of these trainers have a bunch of new horse flesh in the barn.  If one worked a half mile in 50 flat and won it\'s debut, and now you have another horse that worked that same day in 49 and is entered in a later race, that can help increase your confidence as well.  It is no guarantee of win, but it can help in your evaluation of those works.  It will also help you figure out who works their horses fast and who doesn\'t, which is an important thing to know.  

Some of these trainers only have a few moves in them and they do the same things over and over again.  When you know what they are it can help your game immensely.  Especially at the early stages of a meet.  Who showed up ready to go?  Who seems to be racing their stock into shape?  Knowing this will also increase your confidence about making a bet when there are other factors that are also pointing to strong outing.  Or if nothing else, it will help you save some money to know things like Jaimie Ness almost never wins with a first or second time starter, developing young horses to break their maiden is just not his bag, but he can be lethal with recent claims moving up in class, etc.  Each season this method will also get you on a handful of well meant horses that are not otherwise easy to discern.  You can probably catch at least one $30 winner and/or a 100-1 EX by knowing that Troy Bethke almost never asks his first time starters for their best.  They often finish up the track.  But second time out these horses are often very well meant, and workout times mean next to nothing for this guy.  Knowing that, there are a going to be a couple of times a year when you will be able to bet that a 25-1 horse is likely to show some strong improvement, and not many other people are going to know that.  So you wind up being able to bet to win and also key the horse over and under the other contenders in the EX pool.  You are not going to cash this ticket every time, but when you do it will be a big head start into having a good day.

Remember, even if you aren\'t that much better than the crowd, if you out work them and do your homework you are on your way to finding an edge.  Then buy some supplemental data and incorporate that into your game as well and you are well on your way.  Why do you think some of the people on this board do as well as they do?  They have superior data and they do more homework than the crowd.  Beyer figure\'s are decent but they don\'t factor in weight, trips, or ground loss, which are three obvious factors that can strongly influence results.

Hope that answers your question.

[nyc1347]

nice post mj