Short Line Horses

[nyc1347]

Unless something really sticks out on the thorographs with the younger horses that have just a few starts or none at all i always stay away from these races.  My handicapping involves many more races on a horses given figures to get a much better idea of patterns and evidence of some kind of races each horse has run or capable of.. especially with my show wager approach..

my question though comes directly from the race of the week on saturday.  

Nordic Truce had only one start and won running a 10.75 2 mo. ago at a mile in a MSW.  I kno Clement jumped this guy from a MSW to a stakes which shows a lot of confidence but how does one approach viewing a turf horse second time out in terms of improvement?  Every horse is different and the angles are endless but just wondering if anyone has something specific that they look at that tends to be a general rule in approaching such a horse with this situation.  

The biggest reason i posted this.... within this race, on numbers alone, this was one of the slower horses coming in and was bet down to 2 to 1!  which was clearly overbet by the public based on just one race that was significantly slower compared to the others.  For future reference it be great to see what you guys respond with.. be nice to test out certain things without wagering to see if they work out cause at 2 to 1 for this thing the other day.. you can have him EVERYTIME!

[jack72906]

Funny...and painful that you use NT in your example. Lol! One of my own favorite personal angles is 2nd time anything. Handicapping the race Friday (prior to buying TG) I liked NT. Clearly the horse would move up.

Bought the TG sheets on Saturday am and thought Bim Bam (5 in his last race) with good rest was a clear single in the multi-race wagers. Especially with NT at the low price. Bad call. Money Management? Handicapping? Whatever, it cost me the 6-7-8 Pick 3 x9.

I guess to answer your question, the horse IMO had a lot of positives:

1st Time Lasix(Clement 25% with this)
Well rested with a good work pattern
Clement 21% 46-90 days
The horse had a pace edge
1st race of his 3yo career
2nd time turf
Jock switch to LeParoux
2nd time route


He looked GREAT with 10-1 morning line. We all know that young horses can jump up anytime, but I had Bim Bam running at worst a 5 and while I thought NT would improve I didn\'t think it would be by 10 lengths. Should have learned my lesson with MTB in the Derby.

[nyc1347]

even with those factors a 10-1 ML turned to a 2 to 1 shot.. i could never play that race! his show price was $3!!  thats nuts!  yes it was a correct opinion and projection but geeeez thats just unreal.  BB did have the best pattern but even he was 5/2.. the fastest horse in the race bounced 3 points and had a jockey that sucks on the turf.. what a mess! lol   id pass like crrrrrrazy on this one!

this is def the reason i stay away from these races..  verrrry unpredictable