Santa Monica Handicap

[nyc1347]

was in a hurry when i typed this up last night so im going to add a few more things..


1 -   look to me like D will run a 4-5 here.. im putting this one in line with the previous 4.5 poly effort

2 -   too slow and i would expect a slight reaction off 2 new tops and only 22 days off

3 -  top effort last out expecting a slight reaction here..  not known to run top efforts back to back (other than once).. runs top efforts after off efforts usually.. 3-1 and daddy dont like

4 -   too slow and no indication of a new effort coming.. even a top 4 effort wouldnt be good here

5 -  same as the 4 horse but slower

6 - expecting a bounce after boring in last out..  5/2 shot and you can have em

7 -  one fast effort but reacted and 1st out with mott... %16 winner at this angle and dont like..  7/2 and would need that 1.5 to do anything here.. give him a small shot but would use underneath

8 - scratched  (now that makes sense  =)  )

9 -   lightweight.. new top.. nice odds.. 1/4 pt move..  4 weeeks off.. explosion much?  love this one in here!  Glatt has been bringing his horses out well the last 90 days too.

10 - expecting this one to need a race back from the long layoff

11 - not expecting improvement thru the 4 in this race il pass

12 -  should improve here and i would use underneath


overall:  so many horses showing negatives here and the 9 sticks out so much with all the potential to explode forward at sweet odds.   if i played exotic wagers i would use the 7 and 12 below the 9.   Good Luck!

[Leamas57]

Thanks for the post about a race! I realize that there other topics out there that bear on the industry, but I love these discussions of betting and especially the big races. We have begun a new Derby trail and there are hardly any posts about it. Anyone care about the Sunshine Millions?  

No--but you can find posts about drama.

Leamas.

[Leamas57]

As an addendum to my previous message, and to contribute to the thread, I like EA in the SM Handicap with Proviso and I think the Baffert horse out of Smarty Jones might surprise carrying only 114 and being lightly raced with room to improve.

Leamas

[Dana666]

Definitely an interesting race. A few notes from my files:
Diamondrella - didn\'t impress me at all in her most recent grass race; it was a very weak field, too. Not sure Stevens knows the secret to this filly.
Evita Argentina - looked strong and healthy again, she\'s back to her best self, scary strong in last.
Free Flying Soul - strong wins, and looking very solid these days. Did ride favorable biases though in her last THREE races (that was the lugging in by the way, she was moving towards the best part of the track). The distance today is probably a stretch for her.
Proviso - big disappointment on BC day - I overrated her I think, I cannot endorse.
Gabbys Golden Gal - what you see is what you get now - just OK is all.
Gilded Gem - huge upside here - she has hardly taken a deep breath so far no telling how good she might be. She finishes like the proverbial express train.

[Leamas57]

Hey NYC,

Did you see how much your horse (9-Chequers) was pulling in the SM? Jock had to really restrain. Makes me wonder if he should have let him go a little more or if he only needs more training.

Leamas

[nyc1347]

yea i saw..  Sutherland did a good job though. the horse ran its heart out and il take 20-1 on that angle anyday! clearly looked like a great play to me seeing that many of these wouldnt run their tops or just too slow/out of top form. the odds were huge and i didnt have to put a lot of money down so on the flip side i didnt take too much of a loss.  czechers most likely ran a new top even with the low weight (im guessing a 4 or so) and the 11 horse probably ran around a 1 to win.  Did you see the 12?!   That horse probably earned the second/third best figure in the race..  wide the whooole run and still had a lot closing in the stretch... guess we will see soon.... on to the next one!

[marcus]

maybe she gets in the exacta with a better trip in addition to not being wide - imo . Although a bit slow going in relative to others , I thought those 1st two numbers right out of the box were impressive in their own right  . figure she goes off at a big price next time ?

[nyc1347]

yes I think she may be really good odds next time.. i dont think she would have any issues whatsoever going 2 turns either and may be something really special soon.. guess we will see.

[bellsbendboy]

Czechers is a multiple stakeswinner around two turns, one on turf, one dirt.  She will probably be retired and is booked to Candy Ride. bbb

[nyc1347]

marcus and i are talking about Gilded Gem not Czechers