Bounce Research

[drbillym]

Mark Cramer has forwarded to me some bounce research cited in the December issue of American Turf Monthly,by Barry Meadow, which I think will be of interest.  I would send a copy to Little Andy if I had his e-mail address!
In a study of 644,557 races where a horse hit a new top, in the following race, pretty much regardless of rest time in between:
67.1% declined
27% improved
5.9% repeated
Thebounce was more likely in dirt races than turf, in sprints vs. routes, in cheaper horses than classier ones.  
Apossible flaw in the study was that Beyer numbers, rather than TG numbers were used. The average decline after a new top was 12 Beyer points.

[drbillym]

correction-the average decline was 12 Jim Cramer speed points, not Beyer points.

[firmturf]

\"A possible flaw in the study was that Beyer numbers, rather than TG numbers were used\"

Possible flaw? That might be the definition of flaw!

[covelj70]

thanks for posting this, very interesting.

[nyc1347]

drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mark Cramer has forwarded to me some bounce
> research cited in the December issue of American
> Turf Monthly,by Barry Meadow, which I think will
> be of interest.  I would send a copy to Little
> Andy if I had his e-mail address!
> In a study of 644,557 races where a horse hit a
> new top, in the following race, pretty much
> regardless of rest time in between:
> 67.1% declined
> 27% improved
> 5.9% repeated
> Thebounce was more likely in dirt races than turf,
> in sprints vs. routes, in cheaper horses than
> classier ones.  
> Apossible flaw in the study was that Beyer
> numbers, rather than TG numbers were used. The
> average decline after a new top was 12 Beyer
> points.





If we take RA\'s past performance  http://www.drf.com/tc/preakness/2009/pps/RachelAlexandra.pdf
and compare this to her thorograph numbers   http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/prk2009.pdf  we can see that in jan 09 she hit a new top and then went backwards on the thorograph FOUR points the next race.. on the DRF she went forward THREE points!  right after this race DRF is showing a regression of 2 points but thoro is showing a 4 point forward move.   I can just go on and on about this one but this was just a small example of how deceiving and inaccurate those numbers are.

[FrankD.]

Agrees with nyc totally.

One thing we\'ve all learned ( loose interpation as I wonder if some posters here have ever seen a sheet ? ) is that Beyer\'s and other assorted numbers are like the old DR form speed ratings and track variants, they are useless and futile tools.

Many times were all strictly guessing about the bounce factor and personaaly I\'ve been bitten on some nice pick 3 and 4 payoff\'s by the non-bounce. You can look for horses in the early stages of 3 & 4 year old campaigns a bit more to go forward via natural development but overall I like the play against percentage.

From my perspective the majority of the time when tossing the bounce horse I\'m getting rid of a short price and taking a shot for a bigger payout. The difference multiplies out to a huge advantage in pick 3 & 4\'s which are the major focus of my wagers. One of the things thoro\'s have taught me over the years is I don\'t need to get paid everyday !!! It\'s nice and massages the ego but I\'d rather hit 10 -20 homeruns over the course of the year. Even those of us that love action and make too many bets find it difficult to give that kind of money back ?

Sometimes the best information provided is who not to bet in a particular race.

Frank D.