The Donn

[Boscar Obarra]

you were right, 2/5 was way too high

[bobphilo]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Maybe someone else knows but it seemed like both
> those records had benn around a while also

While the previous Gulfstream 9F track record he broke today was only about a year old, he was the one that set it in the Fla Derby last year. Quite a feat to set and break your own track record at the same major track less than a year apart. This is some runner.

Bob

[bobphilo]

drbillym Wrote:
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> Looking forward to any input as this looks like a
> good betting race, and that Quality Road is a bet
> against considering the extra weight and his
> history of physical and mental problems.
> Delightful Kiss draws outside and does not seem to
> have enough conditioning-I am throwing him out.
> Dry Martini used his last race simply as a prep
> for this-one mile was too short for him, yet he
> finished well and will definitely, in my opinion,
> this time finish ahead of Duke of Mischief, Kiss
> the Kid, and Mambo Meister, who finished 1-2-3
> ahead of him. Past the Point ran lights out here
> last year and will hopefully press the pace with
> Quality Road, who got off with easy fractions last
> out.  A fast first half can set it up for a closer
> like Dry Martini, who is in the best condition of
> his 7 year old life.
> I will box DM with QR, and play a tri key
> DM-All-All

Congrats on the Exacta call and Tri bet. DM really benefitted from the quick pace and rail trip, but he was a solid bet to include in the Exacta in any case. I had QR over DK and MM and reluctantly left out DM. I should have paid more attention to your post.
QR was too short a price to pay to win but too good to play against. The best bet was to play him over someone like DM, DK or MM. The Ex and Tri were pretty decent considering the short odds on the solid favorite.

Bob

[nyc1347]

what do u guys think he ran?   an effortless negative 3 or so?   todays effort reminded me of ghostzapper going 2 turns!

[Silver Charm]

nyc1347 they are never effortless when they are this fast. Probably ran somewhere in the range of those last three digits of yours. Negative of course.

Bob you are correct. That GP record he set last year. I forgot but I would be curious to know how long that one had lasted. The record last year, Dunkirk was beaten only a length..ie-the track was really juiced up. Big Drama and This Ones for Phil ran 7 in 1:20 in the race before with heads bobbing on the line.

There was nobody bobbing any heads on the line yesterday. Maybe a few nodding heads....

[BitPlayer]

Since all of the track records listed on the Gulfstream Park website are from 2005 or later, I\'m guessing they started fresh when the rebuilt track opened in 2005.

[mjellish]

We make our own figs.  For what it is worth, we have him going 2w,2-3W under 123 lbs, and our number would put him at a rough TG equivalent of -5.0.  By our count, depending upon what you do with the day, you could make a case for adjusting that either up or down slightly, but there is no way he comes in at a negative 3.  At least not by our count.  Will be curious to see what Jerry does with the day.

[miff]

I think JB could end up around neg 6 if he so chooses. The Beyer guys have QR at app TG neg-7,scale to scale.

When you look at the routes yestrday(cheaper horses of course) the fig is off the charts.I\'ll expect some creative license here.


Mike

[mjellish]

That\'s exactly the tricky thing with this fig.  You have to use the 1 turn races to get the varient and that is always a tricky thing.  Sometimes you even find have to go back later and adjust after the fact.  I think a -5 is about right, but you can make a case to go a little higher or lower depening upon how you view some of the earlier races, and where you put QR on the 2nd turn.  In any case, it is a big number.  Heck of a race, and the fig is backed up by what happened visually.  No way it was effortless though.  Big, big effort.

[Cartman]

One thing I feel fairly confident saying is that the Quality Road that ran in the Donn would beat the best we saw of Rachel Alexandra last year. All things are never equal, but QR stalked the lead of Passing Point, easily put him away, and drew far off from a field of Grade 2 and Grade 3 colts like a legitimate elite Grade 1 horse should. When Rachel was pressed by Passing Point, she was almost life and death to hold off Bullsbay and Macho Again. Those two are not that much better than the colts that QR destroyed Saturday.

In fact, if I was the connections of Zenyatta, I\'d be calling for QR to be included in any match up of the leading horses. Zenyatta might not be able to catch QR if he can hold that form, but IMO it would make it better than even money she picks up RA for second.

[Silver Charm]

There are a lot of bad assumptions in that analysis.

First what if Rachel doesnt go for the lead.
 
How slow could the pace be?

Even more significant is how big would this field be?
 
When Rachel ran in the Woodward there was decent sized field and they were avoiding traffic or gamesmanship?

How sound did Quality Road look before the BC Classic? Experts said during that week he looked VERY unhappy.  

An effort like QR put forth on Sat beats EVERYBODY. I have yet to see him do it two times in row.

Rachel has........

[miff]

Real nice set up for QR on Sat who ran his fastest race to date.Trying to guess how certain horses would do against each other is a great debate in a bar.

As of today, QR ran faster than any horse still in training. If TG/Rags agree with Beyer it will be one of the faster figs ever given.In a repeat of that  last performance, Rachel would have little chance and Z would get embarrassed, all things equal.


Mike

[joekay]

Also, not so sure QR runs that fig anywhere but at GP.

[TGJB]

Miff-- Rachel already ran a couple of neg 4 1/2s, and would get weight as a filly. And though it\'s not likely, what if she were to improve from 3 to 4 as much as QR did (assuming the figure is what you say, which looks about right)?

Pletcher is starting to get numbers again, regardless.

[miff]

Joekay,

Valid point about QR at GP but the Met Mile should shed some light.Must remember that before this horse ever ran(trained by James Jerkens) Richard Migliore stated this would be a special horse.


Mike