Zenyatta - Disappointing Year?

[nyc1347]

Started to really think about this..  With all the traveling this horse will have to do this year to prepare for bcday, faster contenders, and getting older in general, something just tells me that this year wont be even close to last year.  That bc victory was quite deceiving as well especially since she didnt even run the fastest race!  Look who she ran against that day... mostly mediocre horses on the poly.   Now with quality road stepping up and others to come i cant see anything pointing to a solid 2010 whatsoever.  I know we can make the excuse saying she wasnt even suppose to run at all but can u imagine her coming out her first 3 races this year and running thirds and fourths or worse to unknown horses?  They may just retire her immediately again at that point.  right?

[P-Dub]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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> Started to really think about this..  With all the
> traveling this horse will have to do this year to
> prepare for bcday, faster contenders, and getting
> older in general, something just tells me that
> this year wont be even close to last year.  That
> bc victory was quite deceiving as well especially
> since she didnt even run the fastest race!  Look
> who she ran against that day... mostly mediocre
> horses on the poly.   Now with quality road
> stepping up and others to come i cant see anything
> pointing to a solid 2010 whatsoever.  I know we
> can make the excuse saying she wasnt even suppose
> to run at all but can u imagine her coming out her
> first 3 races this year and running thirds and
> fourths or worse to unknown horses?  They may just
> retire her immediately again at that point.
> right?

Last year\'s BC Classic was hailed as having one of the best fields ever. Now, after the fact, Zenyatta beat up on \"mediocre\" horses.

Why do people post about Zenyatta\'s \"mediocre\" opposition, yet never mention the caliber of competitor Rachel ran against?? She was life and death to hold off 2 \"mediocre\" older horses in the Woodward. Beat some of the same horses Z did in the Haskell. Short field in the Mother Goose. Beat a pretty weak edition of the Preakness (what did any of those horses do since?), although breaking from the outside and prompting the pace the entire race was phenomenal.

I\'m not taking anything away from Rachel. She is awesome, ran tremendous figures,  performed like a true champion. But why do people have to continually dismiss Zenyatta??

Then we hear that she didn\'t run the fastest race in the Classic. So for that, she obviously sucks.

I know this is a Thorograph board, and the conversations center around figures. But this notion that a figure is the end all to any debate is just plain ridiculous. Some horses just get to the wire first. Ask Easy Goer. Remember him, the horse with the better figures that needed a biased hometrack advantage to beat his chief rival once out of 4 times??

NYC, you need to give this subject a rest. First of all, nobody is making any excuses for her. This great champion is still undefeated, last time I looked, yet we are talking about her running 3rds and 4ths, getting embarrassed along the way, to the point that she will be retired. Wow, that is quite an assumption.

I won\'t risk having JB admonish me again for calling somebody a less than flattering name. But this was one of the ______________ posts I have read in awhile. Can\'t some people at least wait until she actually loses a race before they start piling on?? Unbelievable.

[nyc1347]

im not trying to pile up anything at all.  im looking at her individual performances last year and who she raced against towards whats expected in projection for this year.   Racing against QR or Rachel alone in this years breeders cup she will be against faster horses.  Im not comparing just Rachel to Z anyway im talking on a general basis of whats most likely to come. Z WILL travel a lot.. and she WILL face faster horses this year or horses that will set new tops and will develop.  

The fact is that thru development as a 3 year old, Rachel is the faster horse and I cant see Z developing more from last year.  I could see Rachel developing or becoming more consistent though, shes only 4 years old!  We have seen QR this past weekend.. how about Blind Luck and the way shes developing?  Only time will tell with other horses but my major point was looking at the whole picture with all the obstacles Z will have this year.. shes was amazing and it be great if she can keep that up.. but i just dont think so.  Its clearly not a far fetch thing to say.

[Dana666]

Guys, can you even let Z run before she\'s disappointed you???

We all agree Polytracks prove nothing. And as I\'ve said, Z is way better on dirt. You see it when she runs on dirt this year. Save this post, OK? Go to the red board room after her dirt race and compare the numbers.

Even though she doesn\'t have anything else to prove anyway, I think it is really showing good sportsmanship that her connections would be willing not to retire her (undefeated) with the hopes of taking on Rachel. Let\'s just see what happens, OK?

I also have my doubts that the race will take place at Oaklawn (a very fair racing surface)like I had hoped. I have a feeling Assmussen would only have them meet on a speed favoring track like Saratoga, for example,so we\'ll see how that goes. Now, it\'s up to Rachel\'s connections not to dodge Zenyatta, and believe me they will as long as they can.

And regarding possible let downs, do you really think Rachel is going to equal or surpass her year? I\'d say the odds of that are really slim. And in terms of either horse even getting close to Quality Road, you all are smoking something strong if you think either great filly could match strides with him. I always said I\'d have been more a believer in Rachel had she ever beat QR which she could never do, and she will never face him anyway, mark my words, Assmussen is way to smart to go there, ever.

I\'d like to see R and Z meet more than once because one meeting wouldn\'t prove much to people, but Assmussen is going to be very careful, and he\'ll wait until it\'s the perfect spot and best set up for Rachel before he\'d even attempt it (and, hey, that just makes him smart not evil) just the way Z\'s connections protected her and picked her spots - they certainly got a lot of crap for it (up till now) too.

[nyc1347]

Asmussen WOULD go there.. u kno.. BREEDERS CUP.  i never meant this to be a Z vs Rach topic again.  Once again im simply stating that this year will be much more difficult than last year in my opinion due to many more factors against Zenyatta.  

As far as Quality Road hes proven to bounce several points after every top negative effort since day 1.. what makes you think he cant run his off race with Rachel or ANYONE in that race and get beat ESPECIALLY with the chance to react  off a negative 7.5?  

Remember, Zenyatta\'s top is only a Neg 1.5!  and ran that twice total in her career on POLY and only once last year.  How is THAT going to cut it?  Ive seen allowance horses out here in the east run negatives as well as local Stakes and Handicap races so many times.  My advice is that she sticks with the girls this year to have any chance of remaining undefeated.. and with Rachel in the lurks it wont matter.  Do you also think Zenyatta would be able to beat a Grasshopper or Richards Kids type horses this year on Dirt?  I cant see it.

[Dana666]

I\'m actually not disagreeing with you. One thing about QR and his \"bounces\"; it is a lot different when you\'ve got a 3 year old who must follow a triple crown schedule and a 4 year old who can do his own thing; I wouldn\'t expect QR\'s team to run him now unless he is doing well, they have no reason to; with only the BC classic as the main goal down the road, he can rest now until he\'s ready to go 100% again and pick his spots.

[nyc1347]

exactly, which gives zenyatta extra obstacles to jump thru this year.. thats my point.

[TGJB]

Hey Dana-- you\'re going to have to explain to me a) how you can read Asmussen\'s mind (as if he was the one calling the shots), and b) what in the world would make you think they want to duck ANYTHING with Rachel. They ran her against colts 3 times, and at what, 7 tracks?

Supposedly they asked Oaklawn to push back the race to 4/10 so they could run her in mid-March and then have 4 weeks into the big one. Oaklawn said it couldn\'t be done.

I\'m announcing right now that if they keep the Apple Blossom as a handicap and Z goes and R does not, I\'ll be running one in that race if she can be ready in time. No further comment now, more later, if we can get a prep in.

[Leamas57]

Since Rachel plans a prep in March, we should know a lot more after that. It will be very interesting to see how much QR has (or uses) in his next as well.
 
One thing about poly that works in Z\'s favor is that (if it mirrors turf as much as some of the poly surface types do) it seems to wear less on a horse than dirt. I also think Z\'s running style and long stride work to her favor in that she \"cruises\" at a good rate of speed. Like a Caddy that is going 70 with only 3000 rpms (please don\'t gearhead me if I\'m off about the exact numbers there).

Leamas

[Flighted Iron]

As I prefer Rachel,if she wasn\'t around Z would be my girl.Based on how fast she
has run and what Smith has said(\"not reaching her bottom\")I don\'t feel her being
6 yrs old will adversely affect HER.Lightly raced and obviously very healthy numbers
well within herself lend credence to her running as fast and potentially a shade
faster.I\'m excited Z\'s connections decided to really find her bottom.Horseracing>

 I personally will keep hope for the healthy return of our stars to shine
together.

Good handicapping,
mjs

[Dana666]

\"I\'m announcing right now that if they keep the Apple Blossom as a handicap and Z goes and R does not, I\'ll be running one in that race if she can be ready in time. No further comment now, more later, if we can get a prep in.\"

Well,all I can say is that would be really exciting and I can\'t wait!

Look, the short story is ALL this should be very good for racing in 2010, and I think we all want these races to materialize. I\'m not sure we really want to rehash all of 2009 again, but, yes, I would argue Rachel\'s team picked their spots running her in  races she figured to do very well in 2009 (which is what they should do - I commend them for that, shows how much they really know!). I mean, the Preakness was a bold move b/c it hadn\'t been done in a long time (running a filly), but the Haskell was a much easier spot than the Travers and the Woodward much easier than the Jockey Club Gold Cup. If you take QR out of the equation, last year\'s 3 year olds were weak, and Summer Bird is the only decent male Rachel ever beat. I\'ll stand by that. If she ever beats QR, well, that would be another matter entirely. Not likely they would ever meet in my opinion.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Hey Dana-- you\'re going to have to explain to me
> a) how you can read Asmussen\'s mind (as if he was
> the one calling the shots), and b) what in the
> world would make you think they want to duck
> ANYTHING with Rachel. They ran her against colts 3
> times, and at what, 7 tracks?

Why would they duck anything?? Because they looked for the softer spots last year. They ducked the Travers because of the competition, found lesser competition in the HAskell, and beat second rate older horses in the Woodward. The only time they went after anything was the Preakness. A speed favoring sloppy track helped her at Monmouth. And enough with the \"ran against the colts 3 times\". She DUCKED the Travers, give me a reason she didn\'t run there that makes sense?? The \"Mid Summer Derby\" wasn\'t a big enough race for her? Please.

I\'ve said she is great, and a deserving champion. But this generic \"beat the colts 3 times\" mantra is tired.

>
> Supposedly they asked Oaklawn to push back the
> race to 4/10 so they could run her in mid-March
> and then have 4 weeks into the big one. Oaklawn
> said it couldn\'t be done.
>
> I\'m announcing right now that if they keep the
> Apple Blossom as a handicap and Z goes and R does
> not, I\'ll be running one in that race if she can
> be ready in time. No further comment now, more
> later, if we can get a prep in.

Good luck with that.

[TGJB]

Honestly, you guys must be kidding with this nonsense, and I\'m getting tired of it. Forget about who\'s better or who should have gotten HOTY-- now you\'re seriously saying RA ducked tough spots because she \"only\" ran in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward, and ran at 7 tracks? This from guys who defend the campaign of a filly who didn\'t leave her state, and who except for one (1) start didn\'t face ANY real competition? (And no, at that point the stablemate was not).

Leave it there. I\'m not kidding. I don\'t have a dog in this fight, but this is utter nonsense, and I don\'t want it on my board. Next one\'s coming down.

[TreadHead]

DRF and Bloodhorse are now reporting that it has been pushed back to Friday(!?) the 9th and that they will both be there now.

And I also have to say that P-Dub\'s assertion that the BC Classic last year was talked about as one of the \"greatest Classic fields ever\" is quite possibly the most ridiculous and misleading post I\'ve ever read in 10 years on this board.  And that is saying a lot.

[P-Dub]

TreadHead Wrote:
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> DRF and Bloodhorse are now reporting that it has
> been pushed back to Friday(!?) the 9th and that
> they will both be there now.
>
> And I also have to say that P-Dub\'s assertion that
> the BC Classic last year was talked about as one
> of the \"greatest Classic fields ever\" is quite
> possibly the most ridiculous and misleading post
> I\'ve ever read in 10 years on this board.  And
> that is saying a lot.

I said it was hailed as ONE of the best Classic fields ever. I didn\'t use greatest. Its not ridiculous or misleading. It was written about in various places, and mentioned on the air several times on various different shows. This isn\'t something that I came up with.

If you don\'t agree, thats fine. Its not misleading, just a fact. But then again, when facts don\'t agree with a particular point of view it gets blasted.

JB,
When you can\'t come up with a sound counterpoint, you threaten to delete posts. She found easier spots, its okay to admit that, it doesn\'t take away from her excellence or ability.