Jackson Bend

[covelj70]

so I took a decent sized stab at Jackson Bend in the first futures pool.

I think of all of the horses in the list, his pattern fits most from a classic thorograph perspective of what I look for in a derby contender.

1) he got down to a big number as a 2 year old and did it going 2 turns

2) he got PLENTY of time to recuperate from that huge effort.  I think Zito and LaPenta handled this very well.  I am sure there was temptation to try the big 2 year old races like the BC or the Remsen, etc but they stayed disciplined and gave the horse the time.

3) He came back to a big number in his first race as a 3 year old.  Not over the top but clearly a sign that he didn\'t lose it over the winter.  Most importantly, he wasn\'t cranked for this race according to Zito.

4) I would expect him to get back to his 2 year top in the FOY next Sat and win that race.  He would then have enough earnings for the Derby and then could have one more prep that isn\'t over the top before being positioned to make a new top in the Derby.

If he wins the FOY and comes into the Derby the right way, I think he could be 7 to 1 or so on Derby Day and I thought I was getting him above 30-1 this AM.

I am not sold on his ability to go 1 1/4 but that\'s the case for alot of them.

I wish he wasn\'t getting bet down at the end of the day here but I had to bet it this afternoon on the way down to the beach (yes my wife loves to go to the beach house in the middle of winter, don\'t ask).  It was quite a site as I had my 3 year old with me in the simulcast room at Monmouth Park.  I was trying not to lose him and fending off all kinds of dirty looks from everyone which I interpreted to be...\"what the hell is a matter with you taking a 3 year to the track at noon on Valentine\'s Day\"

Good stuff, love this game

[BitPlayer]

Good luck with your play.  I was looking at him at > 30/1, but then he started to drift down and I lost focus until after the betting was closed.  27/1 seems like a very generous price to me.  I\'m guessing the crowd was scared off by the slow Beyer in the Holy Bull and by the Carson City in his pedigree.  One of my Derby futures theories is that sire-line pedigree gets overemphasized.

[covelj70]

couldn\'t agree with that more.  Folks typically over emphasize the top side of the pedigree and under emphasize the bottom side.  There were alot of folks who thought Big Brown couldn\'t get the distance but his bottom side was all stamina.

Thanks

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> so I took a decent sized stab at Jackson Bend in
> the first futures pool.
>
> I think of all of the horses in the list, his
> pattern fits most from a classic thorograph
> perspective of what I look for in a derby
> contender.
>
> 1) he got down to a big number as a 2 year old and
> did it going 2 turns
>
> 2) he got PLENTY of time to recuperate from that
> huge effort.  I think Zito and LaPenta handled
> this very well.  I am sure there was temptation to
> try the big 2 year old races like the BC or the
> Remsen, etc but they stayed disciplined and gave
> the horse the time.
>
> 3) He came back to a big number in his first race
> as a 3 year old.  Not over the top but clearly a
> sign that he didn\'t lose it over the winter.  Most
> importantly, he wasn\'t cranked for this race
> according to Zito.
>
> 4) I would expect him to get back to his 2 year
> top in the FOY next Sat and win that race.  He
> would then have enough earnings for the Derby and
> then could have one more prep that isn\'t over the
> top before being positioned to make a new top in
> the Derby.
>
> If he wins the FOY and comes into the Derby the
> right way, I think he could be 7 to 1 or so on
> Derby Day and I thought I was getting him above
> 30-1 this AM.
>
> I am not sold on his ability to go 1 1/4 but
> that\'s the case for alot of them.
>
> I wish he wasn\'t getting bet down at the end of
> the day here but I had to bet it this afternoon on
> the way down to the beach (yes my wife loves to go
> to the beach house in the middle of winter, don\'t
> ask).  It was quite a site as I had my 3 year old
> with me in the simulcast room at Monmouth Park.  I
> was trying not to lose him and fending off all
> kinds of dirty looks from everyone which I
> interpreted to be...\"what the hell is a matter
> with you taking a 3 year to the track at noon on
> Valentine\'s Day\"
>
> Good stuff, love this game


Love this game indeed, and love this post Jim!!

Can\'t, however, endorse the pick. Respect the 5 pt jump stretching out last year, but I don\'t like Tabasco Cat on bottom, and the 2nd dam was a NY bred sprinter (albeit a good one).

Outruns the pedigree to get the middle distances, but doesn\'t get the mile and a quarter.

[covelj70]

lol...thanks man...